The earlier hours of today could not have been more perfect for a dip in the pool. Temperatures scorched as high as 95 degrees in middle Tennessee but the key player (dew points in the upper 60s) spelled triple digit ‘feels like’ readings across the area…ouch. I followed heat indices and last I checked, at 6:22pm, we finally fell below the triple digit readings but still, hot!
A passing warm front has sparked up quite a mess, particularly in Cumberland and Stewart counties, where Severe Thunderstorm Warnings were issued by the National Weather Service. Significant wind damage has been reported in Crossville, Tennessee where there were several downed trees and tons of lightning. The bulk of the instability and moisture remains north of Tennessee, into a good portion of western Kentucky. The National Weather Service keeps a Tornado Watch in effect for all areas under the RED color in the graphic beneath, the Kentucky and Tennessee borderline and north through 10 pm tonight. I’ll keep you posted with updates as they come in.
With any developing storms, damaging winds, heavy downpours, and frequent lightning will be the greatest threats. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out and Calloway County (just west of our viewing area in southwestern Kentucky), is living proof.
So the big question….how about the Fourth of July? Well, that is tomorrow! Monday will be the day for the greatest chance of strong to severe storms. The main timeline will arrive by late afternoon into the evening hours. I know, the timing is terrible.
Let’s check in with our Futurecast…
Initial round arrives around the early afternoon hours, mainly north of the I-40 corridor. Chances only increase from that point forward, with a fair share for any part of middle Tennessee to see a stronger storm develop into the early evening hours.
The Storm Prediction Center has northern middle Tennessee under a ‘Marginal Risk’ for severe weather through Monday. This is a one out of a one to five scale. The areas under the the yellow color (most of Kentucky) has a bit of a higher chance, under a ‘Slight Risk (two out of five). When you look at the numbers, it does not come across as a high chance but the strong storms a few of our counties experiences tonight is proof that an ugly storm could very well come knocking on your door.
If you’re looking for the bright side, we need the rain! Since the beginning of the year, Nashville sits at a 6.78″ deficit so any rain that we do get, will only help this number improve.
After Monday, more of a summer-like pattern makes it self comfy. We will still feel the heat and the mugginess, but at least there will be plenty of hours in the day to get the outdoor chores out of the way. Afternoon thunderstorms will be more on the isolated side.
Check out your #4WARN 7-Day…
For the latest on storm tracking, join me tonight on channel 4 at 10 pm. For the full breakdown on the latest Fourth of July forecast, Meteorologist Paul Heggen has got you covered tomorrow at 4 am.