July 1: Rain Chances Return, Daily Links

WEATHER

The past couple days brought us great weather, but today brings us a return of the humidity and scattered storm chances…a pattern that will continue through the Independence Day Weekend.  Showers and a few storms moved in from the west this morning — that activity will diminish by midday, but we’ll see more scattered showers popping up this afternoon.  Futurecast (using the RPM model) shows that progression:
RPM 10A FRI RPM 12P FRI RPM 2P FRI RPM 4P FRI RPM 6P FRI
A different short-range model, the HRRR, has a much lower storm chance this afternoon:
hrrr_2016070111_ref_nashville
Hour by hour, here’s how the rain chances shape up today:
PAUL DAYPART POPS
In between the storms, temperatures will warm up to around 90:
FRIDAY HIGHS
And the humidity will continue climbing as well.  Dew points were in the 50s the past couple of days, but this morning they were already back in the low 60s, and here’s where they’ll be this afternoon:
FRIDAY DEW POINTS
That’s puts us in a “less happy” section on the Muggy Meter, to say the least:
MuggyMeter

More of the same for the holiday weekend, although I think our rain chances will be slightly lower Saturday, before they increase again Sunday and Monday:
PAUL 4DAY FORECAST TNN
Futurecast (the RPM model again) shows an even drier pattern tomorrow, keeping the best rain chances out to our west:
RPM 2P SAT RPM 5P SAT
The problem, is yesterday’s RPM model run was showing a similar pattern today — and we see how well that worked out!  So while I’ve dropped our Saturday storm chances from 40% to 30%, I’m not willing to go any lower than that — it will be hot, it will be muggy, and spotty storms are always possible in that type of environment.

The scattered storms on Sunday could be a little bit stronger — the Storm Prediction Center has outlined the northwestern part of the Midstate in a “Slight Risk” (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms, with the remainder of the Midstate in a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5).  Damaging winds are almost always the main severe weather threat this time of year, and Sunday is no exception:
PAUL SEVERE RISK REGION
I’d bet on the Sunday evening/overnight time frame being the likeliest for the strongest storms, but more than 48 hours in advance that’s a very preliminary forecast.  Case in point: the analog forecasts (comparing Sunday’s pattern to similar historical patterns) have already zeroed in on Sunday afternoon and early evening as the likeliest time frame, and they’ve zeroed in on the Midstate as well:
PRALLC10_gfs215F072
More scattered storms Monday — unfortunately, it’s too soon to give you a confident forecast for fireworks displays Monday night.

Despite the weekend storm chances, my advice is the same as it’s been all week: don’t cancel any outdoor plans!  Even when we have higher storm chances, there will still be plenty of hours in the day when it WON’T be raining.  Be flexible, be ready to adjust whenever storms are in the area…and that means, be weather-aware throughout the weekend!  We’ll be here with our usual slate of newscasts to keep you updated, and you can download our 4WARN mobile app and check the radar for yourself.  We’ll keep you posted on social media as well.

Above all else, have fun and be safe this weekend!

 

LINKS

Last batch of links through the weekend…your daily dose of nerdiness will be back on Tuesday.

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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