June 30: Unsettled Holiday Weekend, Daily Links

WEATHER

I’ll get to the weekend forecast momentarily, but let’s not lose sight of the fact that today looks FANTASTIC.  We started off with temperatures in the 50s, and while we’ll warm up to the upper 80s this afternoon, the low humidity means it will be comfortably warm:
THURSDAY HIGHS
Get outside and frolic!
headings_4577_76812

Dew points will remain in the 50s today, which is right where we want to be on the “Muggy Meter” (now with emojis for added clarity!):
MuggyMeter

Savor it, because the humidity will creep back into the Midstate tonight and tomorrow.
anigif_enhanced-buzz-3414-1386091410-15
As the mugginess returns, we could see a few showers to start the day Friday:
RPM 5A FRI RPM 7A FRI
I’m thinking that a lot of what you’re seeing on Futurecast’s radar simulation will evaporate before it hits the ground, but the early-morning activity will help set the stage for spotty showers and thundershowers Friday afternoon:
RPM 1P FRI RPM 3P FRI RPM 5P FRI RPM 7P FRI
It’s not a high probability that you’ll get wet Friday, but it’s the beginning of an unsettled weather pattern that will linger through the Independence Day weekend.

The weekend forecast is still troublesome.  Not this kind of trouble…
9535966_21-dogs-that-paw-fectly-sum-up-living-in_tefaf1910
…just this kind:
minortrouble

The troublemaker is a stationary front (essentially a stalled-out boundary between warm and muggy air to the south, and not-as-warm and not-as-muggy air to the north) that will be hung up somewhere nearby.  Problem is, we don’t know exactly where — stationary fronts aren’t truly stationary.  Little ripples in the upper atmosphere track along the front, and the thunderstorms those ripples produce effectively re-arrange the front on a day-to-day basis.  Confused?
K4VlOhH

The forecast models keep the front mostly to our north — they show the heaviest rain (and the associated highest chances of storms) farther off to our north.  Both the European…
PAUL ECMWF RAIN
…and American models are in rough agreement.
PAUL GFS RAIN
But those models have different scenarios about our day-to-day rain chances, and our position on the southern fringe of the heaviest rainfall is troubling.
Me-watching-horror-movie
Why?  A lot of times the computers have a hard time figuring out how far the storms will travel (meteorologists like the word “propagate,” because why use a simple word when you can confuse people).
bbb1
That means that the forecast models tend to underestimate the southward extent of the higher storm chances.  And that’s why the percentages on my 7-day forecast this morning are probably higher than other sources you may occasionally check.  (But just occasionally, right?  RIGHT???)
WSMV 7 Day AM

Breaking down the weekend, I think the 4th of July itself will yield the most-widespread storms, but my confidence in that statement is modest at best:
Independence Day

The upshot is this: it will be hot, it will be muggy, and there will be at least a chance of storms each day.  Typical summertime weather!  The best chance of storms could certainly stay to our north, but don’t paint yourself into a corner.  I do NOT recommend cancelling any outdoor activities — just be ready to make some last-minute adjustments if you have to.  Have an indoor place to duck into whenever there’s lightning in the area, and get off the water!  You don’t want to be doing this in a thunderstorm:
rad-dog
Once it passes, shake off the rain…
wet-dog-shake-o
and get back to your outdoor stuff.
catch

One more time: enjoy it while it’s here, but don’t be fooled by today’s lack of humidity!  The mugginess will be back in abundance over the weekend.
wet-dog

 

LINKS

Not much time for me to mine the interwebs for science-y stuff today, since I went down the rabbit hole of dog GIFs.  Still, here’s some it’s-almost-the-weekend nerdery…

Advertisements

About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
This entry was posted in Uncategorized and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

One Response to June 30: Unsettled Holiday Weekend, Daily Links

  1. Sherry says:

    Unfortunately I do not live in this area any longer but I still have your stations FB page liked…have to say this is the cutest and funniest weather report I have seen. Awesome job! 😉

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s