The humidity is dropping even as I type this, and we’re in for about 48 hours of rare late-June comfort. Dew points this morning were in the low 60s around sunrise — that’s certainly better than the past several days, but those numbers will drop further, reaching the mid to upper 50s this afternoon. That’s great territory on the “Muggy Meter”:
The really comfortable air settles in tonight! We don’t see 50s on the map very often this time of year — Nashville isn’t likely to drop below 60, but plenty of spots outside of Metro will drop that far:
If you’re curious, the record low for June 30 is 53 degrees. If you’re not curious, the record low for June 30 is still 53 degrees.
The humidity begins to ooze back in on Friday, and at the same time we’ll see a weak boundary to our northwest getting closer and closer. That means a chance for spotty storms Friday afternoon and evening, especially for the northern half of the Midstate:
The radar simulation on those maps looks pretty impressive, but I’m still just calling for a 30% storm chance…a couple of factors at work here: first, the storms will be moving into drier air over the Midstate, so they should weaken. Also, this Futurecast model (the RPM) has a tendency to get a little carried away with rain chances more than 48 hoursout.
The aforementioned boundary (it would be hyperbole to call it a “cold front”) looks like it will get stuck over the 4th of July weekend. Exactly where it gets stuck will determine how wet the holiday weekend will be around here. The latest run of the European forecast model (typically the most-accurate) pushes the greatest rain accumulation to our north:
The American model shows a similar pattern, but this is the same model that was almost rain-free 24 hours ago:
Those two forecast models have basically traded places over the last 24 hours — that kind of flip-flop means that we’re likely to see more tweaks to the weekend forecast, if not full-scale changes. For now, I’m leaving our day-by-day rain chances just below 50-50:
If the forecast data continues to point toward a northward shift, we’ll be able to reduce the percentages…but then we’d have to increase the temperatures. Pick your poison. From a practical standpoint, all of this means that you shouldn’t cancel any outdoor plans…just be flexible and ready-to-adjust if Mother Nature sends some storms your way. And stay plugged-into the forecast for the latest information — we’re always evaluating new data, especially as we get closer to the 48-72 hour threshold.
Some of the best nerdery from the last 24 hours…
- The Texas Rangers and New York Yankees waited through a 3+ hour rain delay the other night. ESPN’s Buster Olney (a Vanderbilt alum) writes that Major League Baseball needs to hire a “weather czar.” Where do I apply?
- More weather and sports: baseballs do actually travel farther in the summer.
- Fewer than ten lightning fatalities in the United States so far this year. (Still too many, obviously.)
- Why lightning disproportionately kills the poor (on a worldwide basis).
- Lightning only lasts an instant, but it can help transform a planet’s atmosphere…and even help spark the development of life?
- Now 13 straight months of record heat globally, which has never happened in 137 years of record-keeping.
- A large group of scientific organizations collaborated on a letter to Congress: “Knock it off.”
- Just five days until the Juno spacecraft enters orbit around Jupiter. This article has a great summary of what scientists hope to learn during the 20-month mission.
- Earlier this month, a group of researchers got together to discuss what it would take to search Saturn’s moon Enceladus for signs of life.
- What happens when you “steam” an entire planet?
- Helium is used for a lot more than just blimps and balloons, but the supply has been running short…now scientists have found a new deposit of helium in Africa.
- The power of collective memory: what do large groups of people remember…and what do those groups forget?
- 8 simple habits to keep your brain healthy.
- The science of why thunder and fireworks make some dogs so nervous…and some tips about how to help out your furry friends.
- Finally, the “Dorothy” tornado probe from the movie Twister is being auctioned off. Bidding starts this Friday!