June 29: A Break From the Humidity, Daily Links

WEATHER

The humidity is dropping even as I type this, and we’re in for about 48 hours of rare late-June comfort.  Dew points this morning were in the low 60s around sunrise — that’s certainly better than the past several days, but those numbers will drop further, reaching the mid to upper 50s this afternoon.  That’s great territory on the “Muggy Meter”:
MuggyMeter

Temperatures will be warm, but at least they’ll be comfortably warm.  Highs today will be about three degrees below what’s typical for late June:
PAUL iCast Temperature

The really comfortable air settles in tonight!  We don’t see 50s on the map very often this time of year — Nashville isn’t likely to drop below 60, but plenty of spots outside of Metro will drop that far:
THURSDAY LOWS
If you’re curious, the record low for June 30 is 53 degrees.  If you’re not curious, the record low for June 30 is still 53 degrees.

Thursday will be just a touch warmer, but the theme of “comfortable warmth” will continue one more day:
THURSDAY HIGHS

The humidity begins to ooze back in on Friday, and at the same time we’ll see a weak boundary to our northwest getting closer and closer.  That means a chance for spotty storms Friday afternoon and evening, especially for the northern half of the Midstate:
RPM 1P FRI RPM 4P FRI RPM 7P FRI
The radar simulation on those maps looks pretty impressive, but I’m still just calling for a 30% storm chance…a couple of factors at work here: first, the storms will be moving into drier air over the Midstate, so they should weaken.  Also, this Futurecast model (the RPM) has a tendency to get a little carried away with rain chances more than 48 hoursout.

The aforementioned boundary (it would be hyperbole to call it a “cold front”) looks like it will get stuck over the 4th of July weekend.  Exactly where it gets stuck will determine how wet the holiday weekend will be around here.  The latest run of the European forecast model (typically the most-accurate) pushes the greatest rain accumulation to our north:
PAUL ECMWF RAIN
The American model shows a similar pattern, but this is the same model that was almost rain-free 24 hours ago:
PAUL GFS RAIN
Those two forecast models have basically traded places over the last 24 hours — that kind of flip-flop means that we’re likely to see more tweaks to the weekend forecast, if not full-scale changes.  For now, I’m leaving our day-by-day rain chances just below 50-50:
WSMV 7 Day AM
If the forecast data continues to point toward a northward shift, we’ll be able to reduce the percentages…but then we’d have to increase the temperatures.  Pick your poison.  From a practical standpoint, all of this means that you shouldn’t cancel any outdoor plans…just be flexible and ready-to-adjust if Mother Nature sends some storms your way.  And stay plugged-into the forecast for the latest information — we’re always evaluating new data, especially as we get closer to the 48-72 hour threshold.

 

LINKS

Some of the best nerdery from the last 24 hours…

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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