June 27: Today’s Storms, Daily Links

WEATHER

Temporary relief from the worst of the humidity is right around the corner…but haven’t quite reached the corner just yet.  Today’s temperatures won’t be quite as hot as what we sweated through this weekend, but we’ll still top out close to 90 degrees around midday:
PAUL DAYPART GRAPH
That’s early in the day for the high temperature to occur — the slightly cooler afternoon readings are courtesy of a good chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Those will spread out some rain-cooled air and give us some relief from the heat, but they won’t do anything about the humidity!

The forecast models have differing versions of the specific “when and where” of our storms today, but they agree on the basics — storms are likely, especially this afternoon, with some of the heaviest rain falling south of I-40.  The RPM model (left) and the HRRR model (right) depict things thusly:
RPM 10A MON RPM 12P MON RPM 2P MON RPM 4P MON RPM 6P MON RPM 8P MON
I lean more toward the HRRR’s version, but this isn’t the type of system where you can place much faith in the hour-by-hour depiction of these radar simulations.  Just be flexible and ready-to-adjust  with any outdoor plans this afternoon and this evening.

Our severe weather potential isn’t very high at all today, since the wind field in the atmosphere overhead isn’t set up to significantly enhance the strength of the thunderstorms that develop.  There is plenty of thermodynamic energy though (that’s the energy from the heat and humidity), which means a few storms could approach severe limits and produce damaging wind gusts.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed us in a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms today:
PAUL SEVERE RISK REGION
ANY storm that develops today will pack a heavy rain and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning threat, so watch for localized flooding, and head indoors whenever thunder becomes audible.

We’ll still be hot tomorrow, with highs near 90…
TUESDAY HIGHS
…but the humidity will be noticeably lower.  Dew points will be in the still-not-pleasant 60s, but that’s better than the almost-unbearable 70s on the “muggy meter.”
TUESDAY DEW POINT MuggyMeter

Cooler and drier air settles into the Midstate Wednesday and Thursday — those two days are looking pleasant!  Not a word I get to use very often in late June, but I’m not complaining.
WSMV 7 Day AM
Scattered storms re-enter the forecast Saturday and Sunday, just in time for the 3-day 4th of July weekend.  Don’t cancel any outdoor plans yet — that’s a long way off, so there’s plenty of time for the forecast to change…in either direction (wetter or drier).  We’ll keep you posted as the holiday weekend draws closer.

 

LINKS

I’m back from vacation, so the nerd-links are back as well.  Here’s of the weather- and science-related news that grabbed my attention…

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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