Temporary relief from the worst of the humidity is right around the corner…but haven’t quite reached the corner just yet. Today’s temperatures won’t be quite as hot as what we sweated through this weekend, but we’ll still top out close to 90 degrees around midday:
That’s early in the day for the high temperature to occur — the slightly cooler afternoon readings are courtesy of a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. Those will spread out some rain-cooled air and give us some relief from the heat, but they won’t do anything about the humidity!
The forecast models have differing versions of the specific “when and where” of our storms today, but they agree on the basics — storms are likely, especially this afternoon, with some of the heaviest rain falling south of I-40. The RPM model (left) and the HRRR model (right) depict things thusly:
I lean more toward the HRRR’s version, but this isn’t the type of system where you can place much faith in the hour-by-hour depiction of these radar simulations. Just be flexible and ready-to-adjust with any outdoor plans this afternoon and this evening.
Our severe weather potential isn’t very high at all today, since the wind field in the atmosphere overhead isn’t set up to significantly enhance the strength of the thunderstorms that develop. There is plenty of thermodynamic energy though (that’s the energy from the heat and humidity), which means a few storms could approach severe limits and produce damaging wind gusts. The Storm Prediction Center has placed us in a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms today:
ANY storm that develops today will pack a heavy rain and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning threat, so watch for localized flooding, and head indoors whenever thunder becomes audible.
We’ll still be hot tomorrow, with highs near 90…
…but the humidity will be noticeably lower. Dew points will be in the still-not-pleasant 60s, but that’s better than the almost-unbearable 70s on the “muggy meter.”
Cooler and drier air settles into the Midstate Wednesday and Thursday — those two days are looking pleasant! Not a word I get to use very often in late June, but I’m not complaining.
Scattered storms re-enter the forecast Saturday and Sunday, just in time for the 3-day 4th of July weekend. Don’t cancel any outdoor plans yet — that’s a long way off, so there’s plenty of time for the forecast to change…in either direction (wetter or drier). We’ll keep you posted as the holiday weekend draws closer.
I’m back from vacation, so the nerd-links are back as well. Here’s of the weather- and science-related news that grabbed my attention…
- Devastating floods inundated parts of West Virginia last week.
- Nearly 100 people lost their lives in a tornado in China.
- We say it over and over again (in fact, I said it in today’s weather summary above) — head inside whenever lightning is in your area. But why do we make such a big deal out of (statistically) such a low chance of being struck by lightning?
- The science of mammatus clouds.
- Do darker cars get hotter on the inside compared to lighter-colored cars?
- Great Britain’s exit from the European Union could have an impact on weather forecasting.
- A week from today, NASA’s Juno probe will enter orbit around Jupiter.
- The radiation around Jupiter is incredibly harsh — so how will Juno and its instruments survive that environment?
- NASA’s Cassini mission to Saturn will soon come to an end when the probe crashes into Saturn itself. But why is it being directed to crash into the planet, and not one of its many moons?
- Images from the Hubble Space Telescope confirm a “gas mountain” on Neptune.
- New results from the data sent back by the New Horizons probe — Pluto probably has an ocean of subsurface water.
- Astronomers have discovered the origin of the gravitational waves detected earlier this year.
- I’m not a seismologist, but this probably isn’t good news: the San Andreas fault is showing signs of “large-scale movement.”
- What does it mean to say there’s a “scientific consensus“?
- Editing human genes to treat cancer looks like a great idea…but it’s a slippery slope.
- Scientific advice for taking a good nap.
- Cats may understand cause and effect, and the fundamental laws of physics…and how to kill you when your guard is down. (Just kidding about that last part. MAYBE.)