June 13: Heat and Humidity, Spotty Storms, Daily Links

WEATHER

Summer officially starts a week from today, but the weather is definitely in full summertime mode this week.  Temperatures today will reach the low to mid 90s:
PAUL iCast Temperature
Dew points this afternoon will hover in the upper 60s and low 70s, which is not where we want to be on the “muggy meter”:
PAUL RPM 4KM DEW POINT MuggyMeter
Factor the heat and humidity together, and the heat index will be close to 100 today:
PAUL iCast Heat Index

It’s not all bad news, though — while we just had isolated storms over the weekend, we’ll start seeing a better chance of afternoon pop-up storms today.  It’ll be hit-and-miss activity, but at least there’s a chance of a brief cooldown courtesy of Mother Nature.  Futurecast (this is the RPM) model shows the spotty nature of today’s storms:
RPM 1P MON RPM 3P MON RPM 5P MON RPM 7P MON RPM 9P MON
A different model, the HRRR, isn’t too impressed with our rain chances today either:
hrrr_2016061311_ref_nashville

The hot and humid weather will continue most of the week, but the daily record highs look safe after today:
PAUL HEAT WAVE

There will be a little bit of fluctuation in the daily storm chances — a slightly better chance tomorrow, and the best chance of showers and storms arriving late Wednesday and Wednesday night.  The Wednesday storms will have the best chance of becoming stronger, but at this point the Storm Prediction Center thinks the greatest threat of severe thunderstorms will stay to our north:
hrrr_2016061311_ref_nashville
However, the SPC’s short-range ensemble forecast model shows the better ingredients for stronger storms coming together a little closer to us Wednesday afternoon:
SREF_prob_combined_supercell__f069

Once the Wednesday night storms move through, our rain chances will diminish Thursday and Friday…and at this point, it looks like the weekend will be dry:
WSMV 7 Day AM
The humidity should be noticeably lower by Saturday and Sunday, but until then it will be “air you can wear.”
humid

 

LINKS

Usually there’s a heavy dose of weather and astronomy in the links, but today it’s more of an eclectic assortment of nerdiness.

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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