June 6: A Break From The Humidity, Daily Links

WEATHER

The big weather story today is the newest tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Storm Colin.  It strengthened from a tropical depression yesterday, and will maintain tropical storm strength as it approaches the Florida coast today — at the moment, it is NOT expected to reach hurricane strength (74mph sustained winds or above).  Here are the latest stats on Colin, and the satellite/radar perspective as of 7:30am today:
PAUL SATELLITE TROPICAL
The official forecast path from the National Hurricane Center brings the center of Colin onshore late this evening or early tonight, with 50mph sustained winds:
PAUL TROPICAL FORECAST
50mph winds are certainly strong from an everyday perspective, and some of the gusts associated with Colin’s low atmospheric pressure could exceed 60mph…but that’s not strong enough to produce widespread wind damage.  Instead, the effects of Colin will be felt in the form of beach erosion (roughly a 3-foot storm surge kicked up by the winds) and flooding rain.  The HRRR model radar simulation shows the widespread rain that will inundate Florida, southern Georgia, and even the Carolinas today:
hrrr_2016060611_ref_se
Total rainfall amounts could exceed 8″ in spots:
PAUL RPM 4KM - PRECIP ACCUM
That’s way too much, especially in areas of Georgia and South Carolina already soaked by Tropical Storm Bonnie last week.

No such problems for our weather…in fact, most of the week looks very nice!  We’ll still be warm today, with temperatures warming up to the mid to upper 80s:
MONDAY HIGHS
But as winds turn to the northwest today, the humidity will be noticeably lower by this afternoon — dew points will drop below 60 degrees, which is where we want to be on the “muggy meter”:
PAUL RPM 4KM DEW POINT MuggyMeter

The northwesterly winds will bring cooler air towards us as well — Tuesday’s high temperatures will end up a degree or two below average:
TUESDAY HIGHS

Wednesday and Thursday will continue the pleasant weather trend…even some windows-open weather with lows dropping to the 50s overnight!
WSMV 7 Day AM
But then the other shoe drops, just in time for CMA Fest and Bonnaroo…highs will climb well into the 90s Friday, Saturday and Sunday, with the humidity climbing as well.  Just an isolated storm chance this weekend — for outdoor planning purposes, I’d be more concerned about the heat and humidity, rather than the rain chances.

 

LINKS

Let’s start off the work week nerdy…

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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