June 3: Weekend Storms, Daily Links

WEATHER

More scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Midstate today, but once again the pattern will be hit-and-miss.  Not a washout, but keep the umbrella handy and be ready to grab it at any point.  The HRRR model (a very short-range forecast model that only looks 15 hours into the future) depicts the best chance of rain from late morning into early afternoon, then a spotty pattern through this afternoon, with more rain this evening:
hrrr_2016060311_ref_nashville
Regardless of what the model data shows, with this type of weather pattern you have to be ready for rain pretty much at any point.  There will be dry breaks in between the showers and storms, during which temperatures will warm up to the mid 80s:
PAUL iCast Temperature

I’m more confident in Saturday’s rain chances, because there will be an atmospheric feature to help organize the shower and thunderstorm activity — it’s an upper-level system that will drop in from the northwest and eventually push the unsettled weather pattern to the southeast.  But as it moves in, showers and storms will become likely from midday Saturday onward into Saturday night:
RPM 12P SAT RPM 3P SAT RPM 6P SAT RPM 9P SAT RPM 12A SAT RPM 3A SUNRPM 6A SUN

A few of the storms Saturday afternoon could be strong, and the Storm Prediction Center has included the northern half (roughly) of the Midstate in a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) for severe weather:
PAUL SEVERE RISK REGION
The SPC’s short-range ensemble forecast model shows a 40-50% chance of storms that will at least approach severe limits on Saturday:
SREF_prob_combined_supercell__f039
Regardless of whether the storms become technically severe — defined by 60+mph wind gusts or 1″+ diameter hail — ALL thunderstorms on Saturday will be capable of producing heavy rain and frequent lightning.

We’ll begin Sunday with lingering rain, which will be pushed southeastward by dry air moving in from the northwest:
RPM 9A SUN RPM 12P SUN RPM 3P SUN RPM 6P SUN

That drier air will stick around for several days…in fact, next week’s forecast is looking quite nice!  Too bad we can’t arrange that kind of forecast for the weekend.
WSMV 7 Day AM
The weekend of CMA Fest and Bonnaroo is just a smidge beyond the scope of the 7-day forecast, but the long-range outlook points to a return of the heat and humidity from Friday through Sunday, with scattered showers and storms possible for the weekend itself.
thumbnail_IMG_6541

 

LINKS

Last batch of weather and science-related links for the week…

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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