June 2: Unsettled Weather Ahead

WEATHER

An unsettled weather pattern will linger over the Midstate for the next few days, with scattered showers and mostly-non-severe storms possible every day through at least Saturday.  The driving force behind this pattern is a stalled-out cold front — the dividing line between really warm and really muggy air to our south, and cooler/drier air to our north.  Little ripples in the atmosphere will travel along that front and help to spark daily thunderstorms in the warm, muggy air mass still in place over the Midstate.  How warm?  Not as hot as yesterday, but still above-average by this afternoon:
PAUL RPM 4KM Temperature
How muggy?  Maybe not July/August levels of stickiness, but dew points still in the uncomfortable portion of the “muggy meter”:
PAUL RPM 4KM DEW POINT
MuggyMeter

The stalled out front will be the focus for our storm chances, but it’s a pretty weak boundary, which makes pinning down the exact timing and placement of storms almost impossible.  Or, to steal a line from Scotty in Star Trek:
thumbnail_IMG_6537

Thus, today’s forecast details are given with a modest degree of confidence at best, as this weather pattern tends to confound prediction.  One short-range forecast model (BAMS) is pretty impressed with our rain chances from midday through this evening:
BAMS 12P THU BAMS 2P THU BAMS 4P THU BAMS 6P THU BAMS 8P THU
A different short-range forecast model (HRRR) also shows rain, but is significantly less impressed with the amount and intensity this afternoon:
hrrr_2016060211_ref_nashville

Considering it’s a warm and muggy air mass in place, and that we do have the weak front moving in from the northwest, I’m inclined to believe the more-active computer model.  The best chance of more widespread showers and storms should develop farther north:
PAUL RAIN TIMING
The most likely time frame for storms will be during the warmest part of the day, when the atmosphere is “ready to go” to produce storms:
PAUL DAYPART POPS
Our severe weather potential today doesn’t look impressive, with the Storm Prediction Center outlining just a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) of severe storms producing damaging winds, along and east of I-65:
PAUL SEVERE RISK REGION

If you don’t see any rain in your neighborhood today, there are more chances ahead tomorrow and Saturday.  Saturday’s storms look to be a bit stronger, with the SPC’s SREF model showing a 30-40% chance of thunderstorms with at least some severe characteristics Saturday afternoon:
SREF_prob_combined_supercell__f066

The upper-level winds will shift for the second half of the weekend and the first part of next week, driving the rain chances down to our south and bringing less-humid air into the area (although not necessarily “cooler” around here):
PATTERN SHIFT
The exact timing of that transition is still up in the air — the European forecast model dries us out by Sunday afternoon, while the American and Canadian long-range models hold onto the shower chances until about midnight Sunday night.  I’m siding with the more-optimistic European forecast:
WSMV 7 Day AM
That would give us at least a few dry hours Sunday afternoon and evening for outdoor weekend fun…or lawn chores.
Disappointed

 

LINKS

No links today.  I woke up with the flashy-lights/blind spot thing that heralds an oncoming migraine — that’s NOT how you want to start your day.  So, just stringing together words today has been an uphill battle.  I’ll make up for it with a super-sized batch of nerdery tomorrow…
giphy

 

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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One Response to June 2: Unsettled Weather Ahead

  1. Bill Markut says:

    Ugh. I hate migranes. Hope you are well!

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