June 1: Feels Like Summer, Daily Links

WEATHER

Welcome to summer!  Well, kind of.  While it will certainly feel like summer today, the season doesn’t officially begin until June 20.  Meteorologists like simplicity though (hard as that may be to believe) — we round things off to define “summer” as June, July and August, which makes today the first day of “meteorological summer”.  You can read more about meteorological seasons here.

We started off with warm and muggy conditions this morning, and it will be a hazy, hot and humid day overall, with temperatures topping out near or above 90 degrees:
WEDNESDAY HIGHS

The mugginess crept back in yesterday, and that humidity will be the fuel for some spotty storms today, primarily in the afternoon:
PAUL DAYPART POPS

The RPM (left) and HRRR (right) models show the spotty pattern, with the HRRR a bit more impressed with our storm chances today:
RPM 12P WED RPM 2P WED RPM 4P WED RPM 6P WED
With this type of activity, it’s virtually impossible to predict a specific “when and where” for the best rain chance — the models are more useful for showing the overall distribution…just start keeping the umbrella handy, since you’ll be more likely to need it tomorrow through at least the first half of the weekend.

The reason for the increased rain chances on Thursday is the approach of a cold front that will essentially stall out overhead Friday and Saturday.  Again, keeping in mind that the computer models are better at showing “pattern, not placement,” here’s how Futurecast (the RPM model again) depicts tomorrow’s storm chances:
RPM 11A THU RPM 2P THU RPM 5P THU RPM 8P THU

While there will be enough warmth and humidity to suggest the possibility of a few strong storms, the upper level winds (a few miles above ground level) will be quite weak, which means severe weather will be unlikely.  Right now, the Storm Prediction Center just has us outlooked for “general thunderstorms”:
SPC-DAY2

The stalled-out cold front won’t be truly stationary through the weekend — it will wobble back-and-forth to the south and north, which means there will be some subtle fluctuations in our daily rain chances…but the overall theme is that the unsettled pattern will continue through at least Saturday:
WSMV 7 Day AM
At the moment, I’m thinking that the rain chances Sunday will mainly take shape in the early-morning hours, which would hopefully give us some drier weather for outdoor activities Sunday afternoon.  (We need the rain along and south of I-40, but of course we’re picky about when it falls!)

 

LINKS

Some national weather stories, and other science nerdiness…

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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