May 31: Hot Weather Continues, Daily Links

WEATHER

Quite the sunrise this morning, as high and mid-level clouds reflected the first rays of sunlight…this picture is from about 5:10am:
VIDEO TVI

The morning clouds are the tops of showers and thunderstorms off to our southwest in Mississippi and Arkansas — the air over the Midstate is very dry, so those showers and storms will fizzle as they try to move our way.  This loop of the HRRR model’s radar simulation shows the rain collapsing as it moves to the northeast, with the only chance of a shower remaining in the Tennessee River valley:
hrrr_2016053110_ref_nashville
The cloud cover this morning will slow down today’s warmup, but we’ll still make it up to around 90 degrees with more direct sunshine this afternoon:
TUESDAY HIGHS
The good news for today is that the humidity won’t feel too bad…dew points will be running in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees, which is pretty tolerable on the “muggy meter”:
PAUL RPM 4KM DEW POINT Dew Point Scale Increasing

The late May heat wave will transition to an early June heat wave on Wednesday, with highs once again eclipsing 90 degrees:
WEDNESDAY HIGHS
The humidity will be more noticeable Wednesday as well:
13259997_10154762860957069_1503188056812233080_n
The increased moisture in the air will lead to a chance of isolated storms areawide:
BAMS 2P WED BAMS 4P WED BAMS 6P WED
The radar simulation looks pretty impressive, but it’s just a 20% chance.

A cold front will drop into the region on Thursday, and that will be the focus for a better chance of showers and thunderstorms:
RPM 10A THU RPM 12P THU RPM 2P THU RPM 4P THU RPM 6P THU
Again, the radar simulation looks really impressive, but this particular computer model has a hard time picking out the gaps between storms more than 48 hours in advance…at this point, it looks like 50-50 odds of rain in any one particular spot from late morning through early evening on Thursday.  Severe weather doesn’t look likely — the Storm Prediction Center just has us outlooked for “general thunderstorms” (think of it as level zero on a scale of 1 to 5):
SPC-DAY3

The most-reliable forecast models show the cold front pretty much stalling out overhead, and lingering in our neighborhood through the weekend…that means the better rain/storm chances will linger through the weekend as well:
WSMV 7 Day AM
If you have outdoor activities on the agenda this weekend, don’t cancel anything just yet — Saturday and Sunday are still in the back half of the 7-day forecast, which means there’s plenty of time for the forecast to change.

 

LINKS

The nerd-links are back after a holiday weekend hiatus…

  • The flooding in Texas has been absolutely insane.
  • Tomorrow is June 1, which marks the “official” beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season.  But since the weather isn’t constrained by human calendars, we’ve already had two named systems (Alex and Bonnie).  Here’s the National Hurricane Center’s outlook for the upcoming season.
  • The remnants of Bonnie continue to swirl in place along the coast of South Carolina.  Eventually the system will get picked up by stronger upper-level winds and it will scoot off to the northeast.
  • When we’re tracking a tropical depression/storm/hurricane, one of the on-air tools we use is the “spaghetti plot” map — but not all of the lines on those maps are equally valuable.
  • A team of astronomers thinks that a “super-Earth” planet (about 40% larger than Earth) 1200 light-years away might be habitable.
  • It’s the most famous equation in the world, but very few people understand it…here’s a brief primer on why E=mc^2.  For a more in-depth exploration, I highly recommend Brian Cox’s book on the subject.
  • There was some national news buzz last week about a link between cell phone usage and cancer…but here’s why you shouldn’t worry about it yet.
  • A new high-speed internet cable will take a shortcut to connect Europe and Asia — by crossing under the Arctic Ocean.
  • You’d think that speed limits are set based on extensive research and rigorous statistical analysis…turns out, not so much.
  • An archaeologist claims to have found Aristotle’s tomb.
  • Lots of good info in this article, about what researchers do and do NOT know about vitamins — what they do in the human body, and how much we need.
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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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