Here at WSMV, we start our daily newsroom meeting with a little weather summary — just so the producers, reporters and managers have a quick picture of what to expect. Yesterday, my summary was “very warm and muggy, with a chance of scattered storms today…and pretty much through Labor Day.” No, I didn’t misspeak and accidentally call Memorial Day the wrong thing — I just mean, welcome to summertime! It’s still technically spring for the next three and half weeks, but it sure looks like summer weather is here to stay.
It will be warm again today, with high temperatures generally in the mid to upper 80s:
Your hour-by-hour temperatures will be subject to the whims of the storm chances, which will also be highly variable on an hour-by-hour basis. Trying to pin down the exact timing and exact placement of thunderstorms in this type of weather pattern is a fool’s errand, but here’s what two computer models (the RPM and HRRR) show for today:
That’s a similar pattern, but with some pretty big timing differences. So if you’re wondering about a specific time and place — say, Ascend Amphitheater for the Jimmy Buffett concert this evening — all I can tell you is that storms will be possible, but there will be dry breaks between the storms as well. Here’s my estimate of our hour-by-hour rain chances:
The same hour-by-hour trend (lower in the morning, highest in the afternoon) will repeat itself over the next several days, but there will be day-to-day fluctuations is the specific numbers. That means there will also be day-to-day variations in high temperatures:
The bottom line is this: it’s going to be very warm, it’s going to be muggy, and there’s at least a chance of storms every day. I wouldn’t cancel any outdoor plans this weekend, even with the highest rain chances Saturday — just have an indoor alternative ready to go if you need it, and be ready to adjust. The same advice applies through…well, Labor Day. Enjoy the summer!
One more weather item you need to be aware of if you’re heading to the Carolinas for the holiday weekend — the National Hurricane Center is tracking the potential for a tropical system to develop off the coast. They estimate the odds that it becomes a tropical depression (or even a tropical storm) at 70%:
The “spaghetti plot” of model forecasts shows the general trend of the path the system will follow through the weekend:
While it’s not likely to reach hurricane strength, it’s likely to become a pretty efficient rain-maker from the Outer Banks of North Carolina, all the way down to around Jacksonville.
- One of the writers for DC’s Capital Weather Gang was on a storm chase in Kansas on Tuesday, and wrote up a great summary of the experience, including one of the best mammatus cloud pictures I’ve ever seen.
- Our warmth this weekend isn’t even close to what they’re dealing with in India — temperatures so hot that shoes are melting to roads.
- So your kid wants to be a meteorologist…here’s how to make that happen.
- A new discovery about how trees help to seed clouds could lead to improvement in climate predictions.
- The director of the National Park Service says that the biggest challenge the Parks system has ever faced is the current (and future) threat of climate change.
- Construction of the European Extremely Large Telescope is about to begin.
- On the other side of the spectrum, there is an “Extremely Little Telescope” being used for research as well.
- One of my favorite web sites is fivethirtyeight.com, partly because they run features like “Science Questions From Toddlers,” including: what if the moon were bigger?
- Apparently we’re still pretty far from artificial intelligence advanced enough to take over the world like Skynet.
- Juries in Britain can now use virtual reality to re-visit crime scenes.
- Mathematicians are weird. As you may have guessed.
- Our deepest memories are controlled by a part of the brain we don’t yet understand.
- There’s an ongoing project to find downed aircraft lost in the Pacific in World War II.