May 26: More Warmth, More Humidity, More Storms

WEATHER

Here at WSMV, we start our daily newsroom meeting with a little weather summary — just so the producers, reporters and managers have a quick picture of what to expect.  Yesterday, my summary was “very warm and muggy, with a chance of scattered storms today…and pretty much through Labor Day.”  No, I didn’t misspeak and accidentally call Memorial Day the wrong thing — I just mean, welcome to summertime!  It’s still technically spring for the next three and half weeks, but it sure looks like summer weather is here to stay.
1a359e9de9955164bf13261a497ccdbe

It will be warm again today, with high temperatures generally in the mid to upper 80s:
THURSDAY HIGHS
Your hour-by-hour temperatures will be subject to the whims of the storm chances, which will also be highly variable on an hour-by-hour basis.  Trying to pin down the exact timing and exact placement of thunderstorms in this type of weather pattern is a fool’s errand, but here’s what two computer models (the RPM and HRRR) show for today:
RPM 10A THU RPM 12P THU RPM 2P THU RPM 4P THU RPM 6P THU
That’s a similar pattern, but with some pretty big timing differences.  So if you’re wondering about a specific time and place — say, Ascend Amphitheater for the Jimmy Buffett concert this evening — all I can tell you is that storms will be possible, but there will be dry breaks between the storms as well.  Here’s my estimate of our hour-by-hour rain chances:
PAUL DAYPART POPS

The same hour-by-hour trend (lower in the morning, highest in the afternoon) will repeat itself over the next several days, but there will be day-to-day fluctuations is the specific numbers.  That means there will also be day-to-day variations in high temperatures:
WSMV 7 Day AM
The bottom line is this: it’s going to be very warm, it’s going to be muggy, and there’s at least a chance of storms every day.  I wouldn’t cancel any outdoor plans this weekend, even with the highest rain chances Saturday — just have an indoor alternative ready to go if you need it, and be ready to adjust.  The same advice applies through…well, Labor Day.  Enjoy the summer!
Summer

One more weather item you need to be aware of if you’re heading to the Carolinas for the holiday weekend — the National Hurricane Center is tracking the potential for a tropical system to develop off the coast.  They estimate the odds that it becomes a tropical depression (or even a tropical storm) at 70%:
two_atl_5d0
The “spaghetti plot” of model forecasts shows the general trend of the path the system will follow through the weekend:
PAUL TROPICAL SPAGHETTI
While it’s not likely to reach hurricane strength, it’s likely to become a pretty efficient rain-maker from the Outer Banks of North Carolina, all the way down to around Jacksonville.

 

LINKS

Nerdiness.

Advertisements

About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
This entry was posted in Uncategorized and tagged , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s