The heaviest rain will fall in southeastern Middle Tennessee, where you could pick up 2″-3″ of total rainfall. Amounts around Nashville should be in the 1″-1.5″ range:
This model (the RPM) has the highest amounts of any forecast data, but that’s still not enough to cause flooding problems. We’ll keep an eye on the rain accumulations throughout the day Friday, just in case.
The severe weather potential doesn’t look impressive, either. The Storm Prediction Center just grazes southern Middle Tennessee with a “Marginal Risk” outlook (that’s level 1 of 5):
The SPC’s short-range ensemble forecast is slightly more impressed with the severe weather ingredients, estimating up a 20-40% chance of strong thunderstorms in the southeastern half of the Midstate:
Like with the flooding threat, I’m not concerned — but we’ll keep an eye on things just in case.
The bulk of the heavy rain will off to the east Friday evening and overnight, but one more ripple in the atmosphere will drop in from the north on Saturday, and that could squeeze out some very light showers, mainly east of I-65, and mainly early in the day:
If you have outdoor plans Saturday, most of them should be okay despite the shower chance — unless even the threat of a sprinkle or light shower will ruin your day. Examples…
- “I’ve got a tee time at noon.” You’re fine. There won’t be any lightning. Throw the umbrella in the bag, it’s not that heavy.
- “The kids are playing in a soccer tournament/little league game/quidditch match.” Don’t worry. The rain won’t be enough to soak the fields.
- “My daughter is getting married outside, and if a single drop falls on that dress SO HELP ME GOD I WILL LOSE IT.” Maybe move it inside. And take some deep breaths.
Lots of good stuff from around the interwebs yesterday…
- 2016 is on pace to easily surpass 2015 as the warmest year on record. I highly recommend this article — it’s climate analysis without hyperbole, and with the proper perspective regarding short-term and long-term trends.
- One of the many potential impacts of warmer temperatures: instability in Antarctic glaciers.
- The Saffir-Simpson scale uses only wind speed to determine hurricane strength…it’s time to find a better way.
- A few months ago, I linked to research showing that Pacific sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) can be an indicator of temperatures in the eastern United States, up to two months in advance. The latest 50-day outlook points to a below-average chance of extremely hot weather in the eastern U.S. around July 1.
- Yesterday was the 36th anniversary of the eruption of Mount St. Helens.
- The volcano is still very active, by the way. (Watch the video in that link — the time-lapse footage is freaky.)
- More signs that the oceans of Jupiter’s moon Europa could be suitable for life.
- The New Horizons probe sent back its first images of a Kuiper Belt object other than Pluto.
- Andy Weir, the author of The Martian, is working on his next book.
- Scientists have found evidence of an ancient asteroid impact that was even bigger than the one that led to the extinction of the dinosaurs.
- Something to think about if you read on a tablet or your phone before bed: bright light could alter your metabolism.
- Google Translate is a pretty cool app, but if you could just plug in an earpiece as a “universal translator“? Sign me up!
- Speaking of apps…do you want to know the millionth digit of π? There’s an app for that. (That article is just SO deeply nerdy, it’s delightful.)