May 19: Nice Today, Rainy Tomorrow, Daily Links

WEATHER

We’re in for a nice break from the clouds and cool temperatures today — partly cloudy skies will prevail throughout the day, with temperatures warming up to almost-normal:
PAUL DAYPART GRAPH

Clouds will start spreading back across the Midstate this evening, but the rain won’t move in until the wee hours of Friday morning.  But it will move in, and Friday is just looking wet overall:
RPM 7A FRI RPM 10A FRI RPM 1P FRI RPM 4P FRI RPM 7P FRI RPM 10P FRI

The heaviest rain will fall in southeastern Middle Tennessee, where you could pick up 2″-3″ of total rainfall.  Amounts around Nashville should be in the 1″-1.5″ range:
PAUL RPM 4KM - PRECIP ACCUM
This model (the RPM) has the highest amounts of any forecast data, but that’s still not enough to cause flooding problems.  We’ll keep an eye on the rain accumulations throughout the day Friday, just in case.

The severe weather potential doesn’t look impressive, either.  The Storm Prediction Center just grazes southern Middle Tennessee with a “Marginal Risk” outlook (that’s level 1 of 5):
PAUL SEVERE RISK REGION
The SPC’s short-range ensemble forecast is slightly more impressed with the severe weather ingredients, estimating up a 20-40% chance of strong thunderstorms in the southeastern half of the Midstate:
SREF_prob_combined_supercell__f036
Like with the flooding threat, I’m not concerned — but we’ll keep an eye on things just in case.

The bulk of the heavy rain will off to the east Friday evening and overnight, but one more ripple in the atmosphere will drop in from the north on Saturday, and that could squeeze out some very light showers, mainly east of I-65, and mainly early in the day:
RPM 7A SAT RPM 9A SAT RPM 1P SAT RPM 4P SAT
If you have outdoor plans Saturday, most of them should be okay despite the shower chance — unless even the threat of a sprinkle or light shower will ruin your day.  Examples…

  • “I’ve got a tee time at noon.”  You’re fine.  There won’t be any lightning.  Throw the umbrella in the bag, it’s not that heavy.
  • “The kids are playing in a soccer tournament/little league game/quidditch match.”  Don’t worry.  The rain won’t be enough to soak the fields.
  • “My daughter is getting married outside, and if a single drop falls on that dress SO HELP ME GOD I WILL LOSE IT.”  Maybe move it inside.  And take some deep breaths.

Sunday looks really nice, with lots of sunshine and warmer temperatures.  The warm-up continues Monday and Tuesday, before enough humidity creeps in for a decent storm chance on Wednesday:
WSMV 7 Day AM

 

LINKS

Lots of good stuff from around the interwebs yesterday…

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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