May 18: More Rain Later This Week, Daily Links

WEATHER

We’re seeing more showers across the Midstate this morning, but like yesterday, they’ll be shutting down by midday.  By noon, Futurecast still shows plenty of cloud cover, but the rain will have diminished:
RPM 12P WED
While we’ll get rid of the rain, the clouds will be tougher to shake, which means temperatures won’t warm up much today:
WEDNESDAY HIGHS
Those afternoon highs are about 10-12 degrees below-average.

Partial clearing will kick in tonight, with lows dropping to the low 50s as we lose the blanket of clouds:
THURSDAY LOWS
Partly cloudy and dry conditions Thursday — afternoon temperatures will be almost exactly normal for the middle of May:
THURSDAY HIGHS

The next round of rain heads our way Thursday night and Friday…the various computer models are still disagreeing about the rain’s arrival time.  The usually-reliable (or at least, less-unreliable) European model moves the rain in after midnight Thursday night.  But our in-house Futurecast models, including the RPM model pictured here, hold the rain off until after sunrise Friday morning:
RPM 6A FRI RPM 9A FRI RPM 12P FRI RPM 3P FRI RPM 6P FRI

Regardless of when the rain arrives, Friday is looking wet.  There will probably be enough instability in the atmosphere for some thunderstorms, but the Storm Prediction Center thinks that even the “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) of severe weather will stay well down to our south:
PAUL SEVERE RISK REGION
However, the SPC’s short-range ensemble forecast model points to a 20-40% chance of stronger storms Friday afternoon, especially south of I-40:
SREF_prob_combined_supercell__f069
I wouldn’t worry about it at this point — Friday’s rain is much more likely to be “inconvenient” rather than “damaging”.

Now for the million-dollar question: will the rain linger into the weekend?  Welllllllll…
shrg-1Once again, the data is inconsistent.  The GFS model dries us out Saturday, while the European model holds onto some lingering showers.  This morning’s run of the RPM model runs out of data at 4am Saturday — here’s what it looks like at that point:
RPM 4A SAT
Best advice — plan for some very light hit-and-miss showers on Saturday, especially east of I-65 early in the day.  (Better to plan for the worst and hope for the best, instead of the other way around.)

It does look like we’ll dry out for the second half of the weekend, and we should stay dry through the first half of next week.  Temperatures really warm up as well!
WSMV 7 Day AM

 

LINKS

Lots of space stuff in the nerd-links today, but we’ll lead off with a few weather items…

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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