We’re seeing more showers across the Midstate this morning, but like yesterday, they’ll be shutting down by midday. By noon, Futurecast still shows plenty of cloud cover, but the rain will have diminished:
While we’ll get rid of the rain, the clouds will be tougher to shake, which means temperatures won’t warm up much today:
Those afternoon highs are about 10-12 degrees below-average.
Partial clearing will kick in tonight, with lows dropping to the low 50s as we lose the blanket of clouds:
Partly cloudy and dry conditions Thursday — afternoon temperatures will be almost exactly normal for the middle of May:
The next round of rain heads our way Thursday night and Friday…the various computer models are still disagreeing about the rain’s arrival time. The usually-reliable (or at least, less-unreliable) European model moves the rain in after midnight Thursday night. But our in-house Futurecast models, including the RPM model pictured here, hold the rain off until after sunrise Friday morning:
Regardless of when the rain arrives, Friday is looking wet. There will probably be enough instability in the atmosphere for some thunderstorms, but the Storm Prediction Center thinks that even the “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) of severe weather will stay well down to our south:
However, the SPC’s short-range ensemble forecast model points to a 20-40% chance of stronger storms Friday afternoon, especially south of I-40:
I wouldn’t worry about it at this point — Friday’s rain is much more likely to be “inconvenient” rather than “damaging”.
Now for the million-dollar question: will the rain linger into the weekend? Welllllllll…
Once again, the data is inconsistent. The GFS model dries us out Saturday, while the European model holds onto some lingering showers. This morning’s run of the RPM model runs out of data at 4am Saturday — here’s what it looks like at that point:
Best advice — plan for some very light hit-and-miss showers on Saturday, especially east of I-65 early in the day. (Better to plan for the worst and hope for the best, instead of the other way around.)
Lots of space stuff in the nerd-links today, but we’ll lead off with a few weather items…
- We’ve showed it on Channel 4 more than a few times in the last 24 hours, but it’s worth a link here as well: weather researchers on Mount Washington in New Hampshire having “fun” in 100 mph winds.
- Highly detailed computer simulations of tornado wind fields are giving researchers a new view inside of twisters.
- More signs that a La Niña event is likely this fall and winter.
- The shape of cities (i.e. their unique geographies) shapes their weather.
- If you feel like tackling a long adventure involving almost every type of weather imaginable, try hiking the length of the Appalachian Trail.
- Why don’t the radio signals from spacecraft (especially the ones that are WAY out there, like New Horizons) get lost along the long journey to Earth?
- NASA has proposed a “jumping” probe to explore Neptune’s moon, Triton.
- A former astronaut wants to send humans out of the solar system…and soon.
- How extreme is the weather on planets outside our solar system? Some educated guesses here, but interesting nonetheless.
- Thanks to 3-D printing, you can hold a replica of a dead star in the palm of your hand.
- Some DEEP geekiness here, but interesting: why ultra-precise clocks are so important in physics.
- Different people have different numbers of vertabrae in their backs, and 19 other facts you may not have known about your back.
- New research suggests that trees sleep.