This weekend’s weather was nearly flawless, but we’ll see an unsettled pattern settling in for much of the upcoming week. The upper-level winds have shifted to a southwesterly direction, and little ripples in the atmosphere will ride along the storm track and trigger intermittent showers and thunderstorms through Thursday.
The overall shower chance today is pretty limited — the best chance will shape up west and north of Nashville:
Mostly cloudy skies this morning will limit your opportunities to observe the transit of Mercury across the face of the Sun, but I’m sure hoping we see a break or two in the clouds! Futurecast isn’t too optimistic, keeping the gray overhead through noon:
If you’re a sky-watcher, here’s what you need to safely observe the transit. The better odds of seeing some sunshine will be after the transit is over, later in the afternoon and early this evening. We’ll still see more clouds than sunshine, but just a little May sun goes a long way toward warming us up:
A better chance of showers and thunderstorms will move in late tonight. The storms will be knocking on our doorstep by midnight, and will move west-to-east through the early hours of Tuesday morning:
A few of the storms could be strong, but the greatest severe weather threat will shape up to our west today and tonight:
By the time those storms cross the Tennessee River, they’ll be outrunning the best atmospheric setup for severe weather…plus, the late night/early morning time frame is the least-favorable time for severe weather to occur. Still, we’ll keep an eye on the storms just in case.
Once the early-morning showers and storms roll through, we’ll see a break from the rain for much of Tuesday, and enough of a break in the clouds for temperatures to crack 80 degrees once again:
More showers and thunderstorms are expected late Tuesday evening and overnight, but the timing and placement of those storms is still very uncertain. The behavior of the Tuesday morning storms will help determine the environment for subsequent storms, so take Futurecast’s version of the Tuesday night storms with a significant grain of salt:
The Storm Prediction Center has included much of the Midstate in a “Slight Risk” (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms through Tuesday night:
That’s not an off-the-charts risk, but it’s mid-May — any sunshine that appears overhead could rapidly warm things up and destabilize the atmosphere.
More scattered showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast Wednesday and Thursday, before the weather pattern settles down and cools down for the end of the work week and next weekend:
Overall, this is the kind of weather pattern that drives meteorologists nuts. We know that showers and storms will come at us in waves through most of the week, but our confidence in the specific timing and placement will be low on a day-to-day basis. Just stay plugged into the forecast for updates, and keep the umbrella handy.
Lots of nerdiness for you this morning…the interwebs were in a geeky mood over the weekend, apparently.
- The path of the Tuscaloosa tornado in 2011 was visible from space as a scar on the landscape…five years later, that scar is still visible, but it’s fading.
- Some awesome drone video from Norway: watch a massive snowblower cut canyons through a mountainside road.
- How the Fort McMurray fire in Canada grew from a typical wildfire into such a massive firestorm.
- One Fort McMurray family watched their house burn down via the security feed on their iPhone…just 20 minutes after they’d evacuated.
- The Lower 48 is on pace for the 2nd-warmest year on record, based on the data from January through April.
- Why do people get sick when the seasons change?
- The era of “wireless everything” could jeopardize the transmission of weather data.
- If the clouds over the Midstate today prevent you from seeing the transit of Mercury, you can watch it online.
- By the way, Mercury’s position in the sky has absolutely nothing to do with what happens in your life.
- If you wonder why we make such a big deal out of needing “specialized equipment” to observe the transit, watch the video in this link. Looking at the Sun through an unfiltered telescope will literally burn a hole in your eyeball.
- How is the International Space Station protected from micrometeorites?
- 7 everyday things that happen much differently in space.
- A little advice for graduates (it’s that time of year, after all): don’t get a PhD unless you know exactly what you want to do with it.
- Age, gender and nationality all determine your definition of a “normal” night of sleep.
- The current debate over driverless cars resembles the Victorian-era debate over…cars.
- The research ship that the internet-public wanted to name “Boaty McBoatface” has instead been named after Sir David Attenborough.