May 9: Unsettled Weather This Week, Daily Links

WEATHER

This weekend’s weather was nearly flawless, but we’ll see an unsettled pattern settling in for much of the upcoming week.  The upper-level winds have shifted to a southwesterly direction, and little ripples in the atmosphere will ride along the storm track and trigger intermittent showers and thunderstorms through Thursday.

The overall shower chance today is pretty limited — the best chance will shape up west and north of Nashville:
PAUL RAIN TIMING
Mostly cloudy skies this morning will limit your opportunities to observe the transit of Mercury across the face of the Sun, but I’m sure hoping we see a break or two in the clouds!  Futurecast isn’t too optimistic, keeping the gray overhead through noon:
RPM 10A MON RPM 12P MON
If you’re a sky-watcher, here’s what you need to safely observe the transit.  The better odds of seeing some sunshine will be after the transit is over, later in the afternoon and early this evening.  We’ll still see more clouds than sunshine, but just a little May sun goes a long way toward warming us up:
MON HIGHS

A better chance of showers and thunderstorms will move in late tonight.  The storms will be knocking on our doorstep by midnight, and will move west-to-east through the early hours of Tuesday morning:
RPM 12A TUE RPM 2A TUE RPM 4A TUE RPM 6A TUE RPM 8A TUE
A few of the storms could be strong, but the greatest severe weather threat will shape up to our west today and tonight:
PAUL SEVERE RISK REGION
By the time those storms cross the Tennessee River, they’ll be outrunning the best atmospheric setup for severe weather…plus, the late night/early morning time frame is the least-favorable time for severe weather to occur.  Still, we’ll keep an eye on the storms just in case.

Once the early-morning showers and storms roll through, we’ll see a break from the rain for much of Tuesday, and enough of a break in the clouds for temperatures to crack 80 degrees once again:
TUES HIGHS
More showers and thunderstorms are expected late Tuesday evening and overnight, but the timing and placement of those storms is still very uncertain.  The behavior of the Tuesday morning storms will help determine the environment for subsequent storms, so take Futurecast’s version of the Tuesday night storms with a significant grain of salt:
RPM 10P TUE RPM 12A WED RPM 2A WED RPM 4A WED

The Storm Prediction Center has included much of the Midstate in a “Slight Risk” (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms through Tuesday night:
PAUL SEVERE RISK REGION 2
That’s not an off-the-charts risk, but it’s mid-May — any sunshine that appears overhead could rapidly warm things up and destabilize the atmosphere.

More scattered showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast Wednesday and Thursday, before the weather pattern settles down and cools down for the end of the work week and next weekend:
WSMV 7 Day AM
Overall, this is the kind of weather pattern that drives meteorologists nuts.  We know that showers and storms will come at us in waves through most of the week, but our confidence in the specific timing and placement will be low on a day-to-day basis.  Just stay plugged into the forecast for updates, and keep the umbrella handy.

 

LINKS

Lots of nerdiness for you this morning…the interwebs were in a geeky mood over the weekend, apparently.

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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