May 4: Rain Today, Warm Weekend, Daily Links

WEATHER

Get ready for some “weather whiplash” over the next several days, with March-like temperatures transitioning to June-like temperatures in time for the weekend.  We’ll be on the cool side today, with high temperatures climbing to around 70 before rain moves in from the north:
PAUL DAYPART GRAPH

Showers will become likely from late morning through the afternoon, with a few non-severe thunderstorms mixed in as well.  Futurecast seems to have a decent handle on the timing:
RPM 11A WED RPM 3P WED RPM 5P WED RPM 7P WED
Don’t be surprised if you see some small hail out of the strongest storms — not because the storms will be all that strong, but because the upper levels of the atmosphere will be so COLD.  The small hailstones won’t encounter enough warm air on the trip to the ground to be able to melt.  I doubt they’ll be big enough (1″+) to cause any damage or prompt any severe thunderstorm warnings.

The cold front that’s driving today’s rain chances is being pushed along by a big dip in the jet stream, which will unleash some almost-chilly temperatures on us Thursday and Thursday night.
MAY CHILL
We’ll start in the 40s Thursday morning…
THURSDAY LOWS
…and we’ll only warm up to the low to mid 60s Thursday afternoon — well below-average!  Eastern Middle Tennessee might not even crack 60 degrees:
THURSDAY HIGHS
We’ll see more clouds than sunshine throughout the day (much like yesterday), with a slight shower chance east of I-65.

The coolest temperatures will occur Friday morning, but we’ll bounce back to the mid 70s Friday afternoon, and mid 80s over the weekend — that’s a 41-degree difference in less than 36 hours between Friday morning and Saturday afternoon!
WSMV 7 Day AM
I can’t rule out a shower or storm this weekend, but look at it this way — a 20% rain chance means an 80% chance of staying dry.  I’m not totally convinced of even that 20% chance…a “ridge” of high pressure will control our weather this weekend:
WEEKEND PATTERN
That means that the atmosphere will be pushing down on us, and also pushing down on any showers that try to bubble up.  We’ll keep you posted…but I wouldn’t bother adjusting any Mother’s Day plans.

 

LINKS

Some good brain food for you today…

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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