What a beautiful weekend! We’ve had several consecutive nice weekends, but it looks like that streak will come to an end this upcoming weekend. Because OF COURSE there are storms in the forecast for Country Music Marathon weekend. But in the meantime, we get to enjoy another unseasonably warm day today:
It will be breezy from midday through this afternoon — not windy enough to necessitate a Wind Advisory, but gusts around 20 mph could move you around a bit on the road.
Still warm tomorrow:
Tomorrow also brings us a chance for some isolated thunderstorms. This is looking like the kind of weather pattern that the forecast models don’t handle especially well, so take the Futurecast images with a grain of salt. The RPM model shows the best chance of spotty storms along the TN/KY state line from late morning through mid-afternoon:
That model is also showing a good chance of thunderstorms tomorrow evening. The storms would develop Tuesday afternoon off to our northwest, in Missouri, then march down towards us by evening:
I’m skeptical about this, to be honest. The dry air that’s still in place over the Midstate should rapidly eat away at the approaching rain. Don’t cancel any outdoor plans Tuesday evening, just stay plugged into the forecast for further updates.
The much bigger story on Tuesday will be the severe weather outbreak that’s expected in the heart of Tornado Alley. Significant portions of Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma have already been outlined by the Storm Prediction Center for a “Moderate Risk” (level 4 of 5) of severe weather:
It’s unusual for the SPC highlight a Moderate Risk more than 24 hours in advance, which tells you how active the weather might be. I wouldn’t be surprised if the SPC goes with a High Risk tomorrow, especially in Kansas.
The best chance of storms we’ll see around here this week will shape up Wednesday, as that storm system in the middle of the country heads our way…fortunately, without the significant severe weather potential. The storms that develop in Kansas and Oklahoma on Tuesday will march eastward through Arkansas Tuesday night, then into the Midstate early Wednesday — in a much weaker form!
Some clearing around the middle of the day Wednesday will allow temperatures to warm up to the low 80s, and will allow the atmosphere to recharge for scattered storms Wednesday afternoon and evening:
The best chance of stronger storms will move in Wednesday night:
Even the strongest storms are only associated with a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) of severe weather, and just for the western half of the Midstate:
That means it’s not a huge cause for concern at this point, but it’s still something we’ll watch closely.
The scattered storms could linger into Thursday morning, but we’ll dry out by midday Thursday, and Friday should be dry and pleasant. I wish I could say the same for the weekend…both Saturday and Sunday look unsettled at this point.
It’s just too soon to tell whether it will rain on the Country Music Marathon Saturday morning, but scattered showers and storms do appear likely throughout the weekend. It’s even possible that some severe weather potential will shape up around here — but like the specific marathon forecast, it’s just too soon to tell right now. We’ll keep you posted throughout the week.
The nerdier bits of the internet weren’t in a giving mood over the weekend, but I still managed to unearth some Monday morning brain candy…
- Some severe-weather trivia to lead things off, specifically about hail.
- More thunderstorm stuff: some great video of a lightning strike in Houston.
- Fewer people are dying from lightning strikes every year — a great trend, but why is it happening?
- 11 ways the weather influences your mood and behavior.
- The physics of why driving a car through a flooded street is a really bad idea.
- We think of the Sahara Desert as one of the driest places in the world…but in the not-too-distant pass, one of the world’s largest rivers ran through the Sahara.
- A little geeky speculation: what would have happened if NASA had continued its lunar program?
- “Gravity waves” (not to be confused with gravitational waves) are common in our atmosphere, but NASA scientists think they’ve discovered them in the thin atmosphere of Pluto as well.
- You probably don’t realize it, but the remains of a supernova are pummeling the Earth.
- Why do people twitch when falling asleep?
- Odds are that you’ll never have to worry about it, but just in case: how to survive an elevator free-fall.