April 25: Warm, Eventually Stormy, Daily Links

WEATHER

What a beautiful weekend!  We’ve had several consecutive nice weekends, but it looks like that streak will come to an end this upcoming weekend.  Because OF COURSE there are storms in the forecast for Country Music Marathon weekend.  But in the meantime, we get to enjoy another unseasonably warm day today:
PAUL DAYPART GRAPH
It will be breezy from midday through this afternoon — not windy enough to necessitate a Wind Advisory, but gusts around 20 mph could move you around a bit on the road.

Still warm tomorrow:
TUESDAY HIGHS
Tomorrow also brings us a chance for some isolated thunderstorms.  This is looking like the kind of weather pattern that the forecast models don’t handle especially well, so take the Futurecast images with a grain of salt.  The RPM model shows the best chance of spotty storms along the TN/KY state line from late morning through mid-afternoon:
RPM TUE 10A RPM TUE 12P RPM TUE 2P
That model is also showing a good chance of thunderstorms tomorrow evening.  The storms would develop Tuesday afternoon off to our northwest, in Missouri, then march down towards us by evening:
RPM TUE 3P RPM TUE 5P RPM TUE 7P RPM TUE 9P RPM TUE 11P
I’m skeptical about this, to be honest.  The dry air that’s still in place over the Midstate should rapidly eat away at the approaching rain.  Don’t cancel any outdoor plans Tuesday evening, just stay plugged into the forecast for further updates.

The much bigger story on Tuesday will be the severe weather outbreak that’s expected in the heart of Tornado Alley.  Significant portions of Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma have already been outlined by the Storm Prediction Center for a “Moderate Risk” (level 4 of 5) of severe weather:
PAUL SEVERE RISK REGION 2
It’s unusual for the SPC highlight a Moderate Risk more than 24 hours in advance, which tells you how active the weather might be.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the SPC goes with a High Risk tomorrow, especially in Kansas.

The best chance of storms we’ll see around here this week will shape up Wednesday, as that storm system in the middle of the country heads our way…fortunately, without the significant severe weather potential.  The storms that develop in Kansas and Oklahoma on Tuesday will march eastward through Arkansas Tuesday night, then into the Midstate early Wednesday — in a much weaker form!
RPM 3A WED RPM 6A WED RPM 9A WED
Some clearing around the middle of the day Wednesday will allow temperatures to warm up to the low 80s, and will allow the atmosphere to recharge for scattered storms Wednesday afternoon and evening:
RPM 4P WED RPM 6P WED RPM 8P WED
The best chance of stronger storms will move in Wednesday night:
RPM 10P WED RPM 12A THU RPM 2A THU

Even the strongest storms are only associated with a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) of severe weather, and just for the western half of the Midstate:
PAUL SEVERE RISK REGION
That means it’s not a huge cause for concern at this point, but it’s still something we’ll watch closely.

The scattered storms could linger into Thursday morning, but we’ll dry out by midday Thursday, and Friday should be dry and pleasant.  I wish I could say the same for the weekend…both Saturday and Sunday look unsettled at this point.
WSMV 7 Day AM
It’s just too soon to tell whether it will rain on the Country Music Marathon Saturday morning, but scattered showers and storms do appear likely throughout the weekend.  It’s even possible that some severe weather potential will shape up around here — but like the specific marathon forecast, it’s just too soon to tell right now.  We’ll keep you posted throughout the week.

 

LINKS

The nerdier bits of the internet weren’t in a giving mood over the weekend, but I still managed to unearth some Monday morning brain candy…

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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