This has been a frustrating weather pattern to try to forecast — every batch of new model data depicts a slightly different version of when and where the best rain chances will shape up. As a result, while I have HIGH confidence that you’re likely to see at least some rain today, I have LOW confidence in the specific timing.
This entire unsettled weather pattern is courtesy of a storm system in the middle of the country that has been just creeeeeeeeeeping our way.
The air over the Midstate has been very dry recently, so the first waves of rain have just evaporated as they’ve moved in. The rain finally moved into western Middle Tennessee overnight, and it will continue to make incremental progress across the Midstate today. Here’s the RPM model’s version of where and when the best chances will occur:
And here’s the HRRR model’s view:
Those are similar solutions, but the models have had a tough time with this very disorganized system. Keep this phrase in mind if you have any outdoor activities on the agenda: it COULD rain, but that doesn’t mean it WILL rain. There will be breaks in between the showers and storms, so I wouldn’t necessarily cancel anything. Yes, it’s annoying that we can’t be more specific, but just grab the umbrella and be ready to adjust.
The weekend is still looking spectacular:
It looks like temperatures will consistently run about ten degrees above average next week, with enough mugginess to fuel some spotty storms. At this point, the long-range forecast is disheveled enough to keep the rain chances less than 50-50 Monday through Wednesday.
Some weather-related nerdiness, including some wild video, to lead off the nerd-links today…
- A dust-devil interrupted a college softball game in Virginia last weekend. The video is pretty cool…
- Dust devils aren’t just a phenomenon on our planet, either.
- The flooding this week in and around Houston is the fourth major flood event for the city just in the last twelve months. Why does Houston keep flooding?
- In just the last six months, the Earth has seen some of the strongest hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones on record.
- Coral bleaching has hit 93% of the Great Barrier Reef, and climate change is the dominant factor.
- But the coral that survived the massing bleaching could give researchers some insight into climate change adaptation secrets.
- The world as a whole is running out of climate records to set, at least on the warm side of the spectrum.
- In the United States, climate change has actually made the weather more pleasant (generally speaking)…but that won’t be the case indefinitely.
- No, the full moon will not be pink on Friday night.
- Muscle-loss studies on the International Space Station could also benefit patients back on Earth.
- Despite desperate efforts to reduce the behavior, Americans still drink staggering amounts of bottled water.
- What one reporter learned about sleep from one year of working the “graveyard shift.”
- “Boaty McBoatface” isn’t the first time a naming competition has gone awry.