April 21: Rainy Today, Nice Weekend, Daily Links

WEATHER

This has been a frustrating weather pattern to try to forecast — every batch of new model data depicts a slightly different version of when and where the best rain chances will shape up.  As a result, while I have HIGH confidence that you’re likely to see at least some rain today, I have LOW confidence in the specific timing.

This entire unsettled weather pattern is courtesy of a storm system in the middle of the country that has been just creeeeeeeeeeping our way.
PAUL JET STREAM
The air over the Midstate has been very dry recently, so the first waves of rain have just evaporated as they’ve moved in.  The rain finally moved into western Middle Tennessee overnight, and it will continue to make incremental progress across the Midstate today.  Here’s the RPM model’s version of where and when the best chances will occur:
RPM 10A THU RPM 1P THU RPM 4P THU RPM 7P THU
And here’s the HRRR model’s view:
HRRR 10A THU HRRR 1P THU HRRR 4P THU HRRR 7P THU
Those are similar solutions, but the models have had a tough time with this very disorganized system.  Keep this phrase in mind if you have any outdoor activities on the agenda: it COULD rain, but that doesn’t mean it WILL rain.  There will be breaks in between the showers and storms, so I wouldn’t necessarily cancel anything.  Yes, it’s annoying that we can’t be more specific, but just grab the umbrella and be ready to adjust.

More scattered showers and non-severe thunderstorms are in the forecast overnight and into early Friday, before we start to clear out Friday afternoon:
RPM 10P THU RPM 1A FRI RPM 4A FRI RPM 7A FRI RPM 10A FRI RPM 1P FRI RPM 4P FRI

The weekend is still looking spectacular:
WSMV 7 Day AM
It looks like temperatures will consistently run about ten degrees above average next week, with enough mugginess to fuel some spotty storms.  At this point, the long-range forecast is disheveled enough to keep the rain chances less than 50-50 Monday through Wednesday.

 

LINKS

Some weather-related nerdiness, including some wild video, to lead off the nerd-links today…

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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