March 28: More Rain Later This Week, Daily Links

WEATHER

Some hefty thunderstorms rolled through the Midstate last night, including one that produced an unconfirmed tornado in northern Christian county.  The National Weather Service office in Paducah will be sending out a survey team today to evaluate the damage and determine if a tornado touched down.

The storms moved off to the east overnight, and we’ll settle into a calm weather pattern for the next couple of days.  Skies will gradually clear from west to east by midday, and the afternoon sunshine will push temperatures up to the low 60s:
MONDAY HIGHS

Clear and chilly tonight, with lows dropping to the 30s:
TUESDAY LOWS
Some locally dense fog could develop by early Tuesday morning as well.

Abundant sunshine on Tuesday will quickly burn through the morning fog, and it will boost high temperatures up to the upper 60s (I think Futurecast is selling us a little short here):
TUESDAY HIGHS

The next chance of rain heads our way late Wednesday, and continues Wednesday night and Thursday.  This is going to be another big storm system, with severe weather impacts through the middle of the country, and snowfall in the Upper Midwest.  We’ll see showers and thunderstorms approaching the Mississippi River by early afternoon on Wednesday, crossing the Tennessee River by Wednesday evening, and moving across the Midstate Wednesday night:
RPM 2P WED RPM 7P WED RPM 11P WED RPM 3A THU

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a broad swath of the middle of the country for a “Slight Risk” of severe weather, but they’re keeping us out of that outlook for now:
day3

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to flow up from the southwest on Thursday, but once again the SPC is keeping us outside the severe weather risk region:
day4

However, that doesn’t mean we’re necessarily in the clear — the SPC’s short-range ensemble forecast model is pointing toward a good chance of “organized” thunderstorms (more likely to become severe) on Thursday morning:
SREF_prob_combined_supercell__f081
The Supercell Composite Parameter estimates how organized those storms will be — it shows the highest values down to our south, but they’re still high enough around here to keep my attention:
SREF_SCCP_MEDIAN_MXMN__f081
Finally, the SREF’s forecast for the Significant Tornado Parameter (that one should require no explanation) shows a similar pattern — highest to our south, but non-zero around here:
SREF_SIGTOR_MEDIAN_MXMN__f087

I’m not too worried about it at this point — the rain that will fall Wednesday night should help stabilize the atmosphere, and the early-morning time frame isn’t generally favorable for severe thunderstorm development.  We’ll keep an eye on it, and we’ll keep you updated as the week progresses.  The greater concern at this point is the amount of rain that will add up from late Wednesday through Thursday night:
PAUL ECMWF RAIN
That’s enough to potentially cause some localized flooding — we’ll keep you posted on that as well, as the entire storm system evolves over the next couple of days.

Once the rain ends, we’ll clear out in time for the weekend — a significant shot of cold air will drop down out of Canada, but right now I’m thinking it will mostly miss us to the north.  That leaves us with cool-ish but pleasant temperatures Saturday, and a really nice day on Sunday!
WSMV 7 Day AM

 

LINKS

Some nerdy brain candy to start off the new work week…

Advertisements

About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
This entry was posted in Uncategorized and tagged , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s