March 21: Warming Up, Thursday Storms, Daily Links

WEATHER

We started the new work week with some COLD temperatures across the Midstate…check out this morning’s lows!
MONDAY LOWS OBSERVED

We’ll gradually warm up over the next few days — lots of sunshine today, but temperatures will still only make it up to the mid 50s this afternoon:
MONDAY HIGHS

Another chilly night tonight — most of the Midstate will dip down to around 40, or into the 30s:
TUESDAY LOWS
That’s cold enough for another Freeze Warning along the Cumberland Plateau, and a Frost Advisory elsewhere:
PAUL WATCH

A more-substantial warm-up is in store for us Tuesday…highs will reach the mid 60s, with lots of sunshine overhead once again.
TUESDAY HIGHS

We’ll reach the 60s again on Wednesday, but with more cloud cover and the chance for a shower or two.  The best chance of showers and thunderstorms will arrive late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning:
BAMS 4A THU BAMS 7A THU BAMS 10A THU
The Storm Prediction Center has included the southern half of the Midstate in an extended severe-weather threat area:
PAUL SEVERE RISK REGION
To be honest, I’m not buying that just yet.  The early-morning timing of the storms, along with a limited amount of instability, should help to keep our severe potential low.  The SPC’s SREF (short-range ensemble forecast) model shows only a 5-10% chance of “organized” thunderstorms Thursday morning:
SREF_prob_combined_supercell__f078
And the “analog” forecast (comparing Wednesday night and Thursday’s pattern to similar historical pattern) points to the severe weather threat shaping up farther to our west:
SVRall_N1_110km_gfs212F072
That said, it is late March, which means every thunderstorm that develops will have our full attention.  We’ll keep you posted on any severe weather threat that develops.

Once Thursday’s system passes by, we’ll clear out on Friday.  I’m leaving Saturday’s forecast rain-free — the American GFS model says it will rain, the European model says in won’t…take your pick.  A better chance of rain shapes up again Easter Sunday, but it’s the last day of the 7-day forecast, so at this point it’s too early to be too worried:
WSMV 7 Day AM

 

LINKS

Some Monday-morning nerdiness for you…

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About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WSMV-TV in Nashville.
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