March 16: Warm Again, Cooler Weekend, Daily Links


Today won’t be as warm as yesterday, but yesterday was exceptional on many levels.  With lots of sunshine throughout the day (and a few passing clouds), temperatures will still top out 10-12 degrees above average:

Passing clouds again tonight, but I’ve removed even the 20% shower chance from the forecast.  Temperatures will be closer to “normal” to start the day Thursday…
…but we’ll still warm up to around 70 degrees!
I think Futurecast is being a little conservative with Thursday’s temperatures — you can add 2-3 degrees to the values shown in that image.

Another mild day Friday with highs in the mid 60s, but we’ll see increasing clouds by Friday afternoon as our next chance of showers approaches.  Off-and-on showers will move in Friday evening and overnight:

The chance of showers will continue over the weekend, and temperatures will be noticeably cooler as well.  You can thank the jet stream for both — the upper-level river of air that acts as the main storm track for North America will be right on top of us:
As little ripples travel through the jet stream, off-and-on showers will remain possible Saturday and Sunday.  As I said yesterday, the rain chances are the tricky part of the forecast — I’m confident in the temperature prediction, but not in the specifics of when and where it’s going to rain.  It won’t rain everywhere all the time, but this will be another weekend when you’ll need to be flexible with the timing of any outdoor plans.

We’ll clear out and warm back up next week — chilly mornings and mild afternoons will prevail Monday and Tuesday:
7 Day PM



Plenty of nerdy stuff for you again this morning…

  • 2015 was a “quiet” year for severe weather across the United States…but the Storm Prediction Center still cataloged almost 25 thousand severe weather reports.
  • The top five tornado myths.  It’s amazing how these still persist, even the in face of far better information.
  • The world’s best extended-range forecast model is now even better.
  • For even more precise forecasts in the future, we’ll need more-precise observations.
  • How much do you rely on an app for your weather forecast?  BE HONEST.
  • We rely on the fossil record for details about animals that went extinct long before humans were around…but most species that go extinct now won’t leave a trace in the fossil record.
  • Speaking of fossils…scientists believe they’ve identified a pregnant T-Rex.  (I think the technical term is “gravid” for egg-laying animals.)
  • Interesting thought exercise: how far back in time could you travel and still understand English?
  • An 11-year-old just recorded an insanely high score on an IQ test.
  • And the news that was everywhere yesterday — the NFL finally acknowledged what everyone knew already: there is a link between playing football and chronic brain injury.

About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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