UPDATE: Heavy Rain, Thunder, Cold, & Snow

The storm we’ve been telling you about for several days now is well underway.  Here’s a look at 4WARN Live Doppler Radar as of 8:00pm tonight…

VIDEO RADAR

It shows rain for nearly all of Middle TN, with a good portion of if moderate to heavy (shown in yellow, orange, or red).  Rain will continue through the night making driving conditions very treacherous.  The threat for thunderstorms will arrive around midnight over southern Middle TN.

Right now, thunder is quite limited.  Notice in the picture below there have only been 3 strikes of lightning in the last 20 minutes in the map area shown!

VIDEO VIPIR

A wider view shows many more strikes farther south with the strongest thunderstorms, along the immediate Gulf Coast.  That’s where the BEST chance for severe weather will be tonight.

VIDEO VIPIR2

Speaking of severe weather, this set-up tonight ISN’T very good for severe weather in Middle TN.  Most of the Mid State has NO CHANCE at severe storms because of the eventual track of the big “L” — the center of low pressure.  It’ll pass right through the Mid State overnight.  Areas southeast of its track have the only shot and even there it’s marginal….as shown in the latest Storm Prediction Center outlook for severe weather overnight…

DT_SEVERE RISK REGION

The bottom line is that instability will be insufficient and the wind profile in the atmosphere isn’t tremendously favorable for us to get an outbreak of damaging storms.  Over the southeasternmost corner of the Mid State late tonight (midnight – 4am), a couple storms could produce damaging wind gusts, but that would be the exception.

Take a look at FUTURECAST through the overnight, below.  A band of stronger storms shows up nicely passing through Lawrenceburg, Pulaski, Fayetteville, Tullahoma, & Winchester during the wee hours of the morning (look for the bright red core or rain). That’s the extent of our severe threat.

Again, only in this small corridor of the Mid State, damaging wind gusts to 60mph will be possible.

FUTURECAST shows that by dawn tomorrow, the rain will become much more patchy/showery in nature.  Still, expect many wet roads for the morning drive.  It should be quite breezy, too!

Notice the blue color show up over northwestern Middle TN late in the day (above).  This shows where we’ll likely have rain beginning to mix with snow, although it won’t accumulate (during the daylight hours).

Temperatures will plummet tomorrow from the mid 50s in the early morning to the upper 30s and low-mid 40s by 3pm, so be sure to take a heavier coat for the afternoon even if it feels mild outdoors when you leave for work/school.  Here’s a look at 3pm temperatures.

DT 4 RPM 12KM Temperature

Rain showers will turn to snow showers tomorrow night.  Temperatures will continue to fall, but be above freezing for most of us all night long.  SO….snow accumulation will be limited.  Here’s my latest thinking on that, by Thursday morning.

DTDTDT

Most of what does stick in the areas shown above will be on roofs, cars, decks, etc.  However, early Thursday morning on the Cumberland Plateau, some bridges, overpasses, and secondary roads could get snow covered, so allow extra travel time there, then.

Localized flash flooding is a possibility tonight too, with the persistent bands of rain.  Some areas have already picked up over an inch!  Lisa Spencer will let you know if any trouble spots are occurring with any of our roads, rivers, or streams tonight, on Channel 4 News at 10pm!  We hope you tune in!

 

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One Response to UPDATE: Heavy Rain, Thunder, Cold, & Snow

  1. Pingback: Surviving the Storm | 4WARN Weather Blog

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