October 29: A Break From The Rain…Until Halloween

WEATHER

The rainy pattern of the last few days has finally moved off to the east, and the lingering clouds will gradually clear throughout the day as well.  Temperatures will warm up to the upper 60s by midday…
RPM 1P THU
…but as northwesterly winds kick in, we’ll drop to the lower half of the 60s by late afternoon.

All the way down to near 40 in Nashville Friday morning, with areas outside the “urban heat island” dropping to the 30s:
RPM 5A FRI

The big question continues to be, “Will it rain on the trick-or-treaters on Halloween?”  The answer at this point is, “Probably, but not definitely.”  We’ll start off the day dry on Saturday, so any “trunk-or-treat” events or other outdoor activities are looking good for now:
RPM 7A SAT RPM 10A SAT

A few sprinkles and showers will start to move in by early afternoon, with rain becoming more likely from southwest-to-northeast in the late afternoon and early evening.  The Futurecast time series here shows one model’s (the RPM, if you care) version of how the rain will take shape: RPM 1P SAT RPM 4P SAT RPM 7P SAT RPM 10P SAT
RPM 1A SAT
A different weather model (the BAMS model) keeps us almost completely dry Saturday night…
VIDEO - OMNI
…while the European forecast model says that everyone will be wet:
ecmwf_apcp_f72_us
Keep in mind that weather models are guidance, not gospel…we’ll be monitoring the forecast and we’ll keep you posted regarding any changes.

In the spirit of “rain is expected but not guaranteed,” I’m putting a 70% chance of rain in the forecast for Halloween evening and night.  Some lingering showers and storms could dampen the first half of Sunday, with some spotty showers Monday before things dry out again Tuesday and Wednesday:
7 Day PM

It’s easy to take those 70s in the forecast for granted, since we’re still pretty accustomed to seeing those numbers…but the average high temperature in early November is in the low to mid 60s, so it’s actually an unseasonably warm weather pattern that we’ll be able to enjoy for much of next week:
PATTERN CHANGE

 

LINKS

Weather- and science-nerdiness galore today, with some Halloween-geek items at the end of today’s links…

About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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