The rainy pattern of the last few days has finally moved off to the east, and the lingering clouds will gradually clear throughout the day as well. Temperatures will warm up to the upper 60s by midday…
…but as northwesterly winds kick in, we’ll drop to the lower half of the 60s by late afternoon.
The big question continues to be, “Will it rain on the trick-or-treaters on Halloween?” The answer at this point is, “Probably, but not definitely.” We’ll start off the day dry on Saturday, so any “trunk-or-treat” events or other outdoor activities are looking good for now:
A few sprinkles and showers will start to move in by early afternoon, with rain becoming more likely from southwest-to-northeast in the late afternoon and early evening. The Futurecast time series here shows one model’s (the RPM, if you care) version of how the rain will take shape:
A different weather model (the BAMS model) keeps us almost completely dry Saturday night…
…while the European forecast model says that everyone will be wet:
Keep in mind that weather models are guidance, not gospel…we’ll be monitoring the forecast and we’ll keep you posted regarding any changes.
In the spirit of “rain is expected but not guaranteed,” I’m putting a 70% chance of rain in the forecast for Halloween evening and night. Some lingering showers and storms could dampen the first half of Sunday, with some spotty showers Monday before things dry out again Tuesday and Wednesday:
It’s easy to take those 70s in the forecast for granted, since we’re still pretty accustomed to seeing those numbers…but the average high temperature in early November is in the low to mid 60s, so it’s actually an unseasonably warm weather pattern that we’ll be able to enjoy for much of next week:
Weather- and science-nerdiness galore today, with some Halloween-geek items at the end of today’s links…
- The main tornado season in the United States is in the spring, but we’re just about to reach the “second” tornado season.
- A new Japanese weather satellite has given meteorologists a great view of two storm systems undergoing “bombogenesis” in the Pacific Ocean.
- It’s been 50 years since scientists first warned the U.S. President about climate change.
- IBM has reached an agreement to purchase The Weather Company, but The Weather Channel might be left out in the cold.
- The earthquake earlier this week in Afghanistan and Pakistan is the latest in a long series of geologic instability.
- Yesterday, the spacecraft Cassini flew through the geysers spewing out of Saturn’s moon Enceladus. Results will start trickling in today, but it could be months before researchers know if the basic building blocks of life exist in Enceladus’ subsurface ocean.
- Enceladus isn’t the only moon in the solar system with a subsurface ocean, which means it isn’t the only place where simple life could exist.
- Maybe this will motivate renewed funding for the space program: Russia plans a manned mission to the moon in the next 15 years.
- New discoveries from the Rosetta spacecraft (the one that landed a probe on a comet last November) could re-write theories about the early solar system.
- Other new research suggests that the entire cosmos was favorable for life to develop very early on.
- Astronomers have discovered a disc of “young” stars near the center of the Milky Way (that’s our galaxy).
- Halloween links!