June 30: More Storms Ahead, Daily Links

1PM UPDATE: As expected, storms have fired up in the eastern half of the Midstate, prompting a few severe thunderstorm warnings already this afternoon.  The storms will continue moving to the east/southeast…in fact, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the eastern counties of Middle Tennessee until 8:00pm:
PAUL WATCH

Damaging straight-line winds still look like the primary threat, but a few instances of almost-severe hail can’t be ruled out.  Remember, all watches and warnings are automatically posted to my Twitter feed.  Facebook is NOT a reliable source of time-sensitive information like severe weather warnings.

The rest of the Midstate still could see a few storms, but our severe potential looks quite a bit lower.  In fact, the Storm Prediction Center trimmed back the “Slight Risk” area significantly with their 11:30am update:
PAUL SEVERE RISK REGION

Our severe risk for Wednesday remains essentially unchanged for now…I wouldn’t be surprised to see portions of the Midstate west of I-65 eventually upgraded to a Slight Risk as well:
PAUL SEVERE RISK REGION 2

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WEATHER

Some pretty feisty storms developed and moved through the Midstate yesterday evening and overnight…they prompted a few severe thunderstorm warnings and flood advisories, but no widespread damage was reported.  Some spectacular images from those storms, though:
2_Cheri_Goodlettsville 4_KP_Greenbrier

Thanks to Cheri and KP for posting those images to Facebook and Twitter — those are mammatus clouds.  The undulations on the undersides of those thunderstorm clouds are produced by the violent up-and-down motion within the cloud itself.  A common misconception is that mammatus clouds are associated with tornado formation, but that’s not really the case…they’re usually visible once the worst of the storm has passed.

Abundant storm chances dominate the 7-day forecast:
7 Day PM

The best chance of storms today will take shape in eastern Middle Tennessee.  Using the HRRR model to simulate this afternoon’s radar view, you can see more numerous storms in the eastern half of the Midstate, but still a chance of some storms farther west:
HRRR 12P TUE HRRR 2P TUE HRRR 4P TUE HRRR 6P TUE

The Storm Prediction Center has included most of the Midstate in a “Slight Risk” for severe storms today…which is a bit surprising.  More accurately, I’m not as surprised they went with a Slight Risk for today, but that they just outlined a “Marginal Risk” for tomorrow and Thursday:
PAUL SEVERE RISK REGION PAUL SEVERE RISK REGION 2 PAUL SEVERE RISK REGION 3

The main threat all three days will be from damaging straight-line winds.  The best set-up for severe storms will be in the western half of the Midstate on Wednesday, and in southern Middle Tennessee on Thursday.  Regardless of how the SPC is phrasing the day-to-day threat, we’ll see plenty of storms with at least some severe potential for the next few days.  I’ll update this post with new graphics if the SPC adjusts their outlooks later today.

Heavy rain will increasingly become a concern as waves of thunderstorms continue to traverse the Midstate the rest of this week.  Adding up the rain through Monday, the European forecast model estimates 4-6″ of rain for much of the area:
PAUL RPM 12KM - PRECIP ACCUM

We’ll keep an eye out for localized flooding problems through the weekend.  There will be breaks in between the waves of storms, and those breaks will be longer and more numerous by Saturday and Sunday…but it’s still too soon to tell if we’ll catch one of those breaks for fireworks displays on the 4th of July.

 

LINKS

A couple of weather-related items, and assorted other nerdiness…

  • A nice article on the important role that volunteer storm spotters play in severe weather coverage.
  • As water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean change, Europe’s weather could undergo some big changes.
  • An “extreme makeover” of a different sort: humankind’s effect on the planet as a whole.
  • Interesting profile of Elon Musk, the mind behind PayPal, Tesla, and SpaceX.
  • Good news for my fiancee, not-so-good news for me: more evidence that attractive people can get away with anything.
  • A little something for new parents/grandparents: how a newborn baby sees you.
  • Earth-like planets can still exist around very, very old stars.
  • The difference between good drummers and great drummers?  Math.
  • Because the Earth’s rotation is slowing down gradually, an extra second is being added to the last minute of this month.  So today is 24 hours and 1 second long.  Use that extra second wisely, folks.

About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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