June 24: Lower Storm Chances, Daily Links

1:30PM UPDATE: Stubborn clouds have remained over Nashville all day, but as you can see on the satellite picture, the cloud cover is basically confined to a few counties around Nashville. 

 That’s why we haven’t warmed up to the 90s like I anticipated this morning — I’ll trade a busted forecast for some relief from the head though!
WEATHER

Yesterday’s storms took a while to get going, but once they did…
that-escalated-quickly-anchorman-gif

We had some hail reports as the storms intensified, some wind damage around Murfreesboro, and enough rain to cause flooding problems in Rutherford and Williamson counties.  (The latest list of severe weather reports from the National Weather Service is here.)  The radar-estimated rainfall totals were mostly in the 3-4″ range:
CIQTU2ZW8AAT_Om.jpg large

Parts of Benton, Carroll and Decatur counties picked up some heavy rain as well:
VIDEO RADAR

But the storms diminished after midnight, and we’ll see mostly dry weather today and tomorrow — I’ll leave the storm chances in the 20% “I can’t completely rule it out” category.  Limited storm chances mean hotter temperatures…the good news is that the humidity today won’t be as dreadful as it was yesterday.  Temperatures will reach the low 90s…
PAUL RPM 4KM Temperature

…with this afternoon’s heat indices reaching the mid to upper 90s:
PAUL RPM 4KM HEAT INDEX

I’ll be honest: tomorrow’s heat looks pretty nasty.  Right now I’m forecasting a high of 97, and the heat index could climb into the 105-110 range (which could prompt a heat advisory from the National Weather Service).
of-course

Relief from the heat will arrive in time for the weekend…
winning

…but as the cold front responsible for that relief moves in, some strong to severe storms could develop on Friday.  The Storm Prediction Center has included the western half of the Midstate in a “Slight Risk” of severe weather (level 2 out of 5), with a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) for the rest of the area:
PAUL SEVERE RISK REGION

The SPC’s Short-Range Ensemble Model (SREF) shows that the greatest severe potential will take shape to our west, but it still indicates a 50-70% chance of storms with enough organization to produce a damaging-wind threat (and that number has been increasing with every new batch of model data):
SREF_prob_combined_supercell__f063

The analog forecasts (comparing the forecast weather pattern to similar patterns in the past) estimates a 50-60% chance of at least one severe report in the Midstate on Friday:
SVRall_N1_110km_gfs212F072

The rain chances will linger through the first half of the day Saturday, then drier weather should be in place by Saturday afternoon and evening.  The humidity will be noticeably lower as well, which will allow temperatures to drop to the low 60s Sunday morning and again Monday morning.  Sounds like windows-open weather to me!
7 Day PM

 

LINKS

Some weather stuff, and lots of space nerdery today…

About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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