June 23: Hot and Humid, Several Storm Chances, Daily Links

1PM UPDATE: SPC trimmed back the “Slight Risk” area slightly, which is good news for southern Kentucky and northeastern Middle Tennessee. The “Marginal Risk” for the whole Midstate still stands. 

 Still expecting some storms to develop to our north and drift down into the Midstate, but not until late afternoon at the earliest…more likely this evening. Pretty much everything else from this morning’s post is still valid. Enjoy the heat!

WEATHER

Hazy, hot and humid again today.  I know you’re surprised.
what-Alison-Brie-

High temperatures will reach the low to mid 90s, but the heat index is the bigger issue.  The “feels-like” temperature will run between 100 and 105 throughout the afternoon:
PAUL RPM 4KM HEAT INDEX
bluahh

But there is some good news — scattered storms are expected to develop in Kentucky and drop into Middle Tennessee late this afternoon.  Those storms would spread out some rain-cooled air…
cheering_minions

…but they won’t do anything about the humidity…
anigif_enhanced-buzz-16620-1387063556-25

…AND the storms could potentially be severe.
minion-wha

The best chance of stronger storms will be in the northern half of the Midstate, especially to the northeast of Nashville.  That’s where the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a “Slight Risk” of severe weather, specifically for a damaging-wind threat.  The rest of the Midstate is included in the “Marginal Risk” area, which basically means that severe weather isn’t expected, but can’t completely be ruled out.PAUL SEVERE RISK REGION

The Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) model says there’s a 50% chance that the storms will be organized enough to take on some supercell characteristics — that doesn’t mean we need to worry about tornadoes, it just highlights the straight-line wind potential:
SREF_prob_combined_supercell__f012

The “analog method” of forecasting (comparing this weather pattern to historically similar patterns) estimates a 40-50% chance of at least one severe report in our area today:
SVRall_N1_110km_nam212F024

I’ll update this post with any revised SPC outlooks or severe thunderstorm watch information (if necessary).  If any warnings are issued, remember they’re posted immediately to my Twitter feed.

The storm chances look pretty minimal for tomorrow and Thursday, and the heat wave will continue.  Afternoon highs will reach the mid 90s, with the heat index running right around 105 degrees.  Basically…
yuck

An unusually strong cold front will drop down towards us Friday and Saturday…the specific timing and strength of that front will determine our storm chances and overall severe weather potential.  Right now all I’m willing to say is that showers and thunderstorms will be likely whenever the front arrives, and some of those storms could be strong or severe.  This morning’s data indicated that the Friday evening/overnight time frame will be the most active, but it’s still several days away so that’s very preliminary.

Returning to the SREF model…at the moment, it’s only showing a 30-40% chance of organized “supercell-ish” thunderstorms by 7pm Friday.  We’ll see how that chance evolves throughout the week — I’ve noticed the SREF tends to downplay farther-in-the-future severe weather possibilities.
SREF_prob_combined_supercell__f087

Back to the analog forecasting method…it yields a 50-60% chance of at least one severe report by Friday evening:
SVRall_N1_110km_gfs212F096

And of greater concern, a 20-30% chance of more than 10 severe reports:
SVRall_N10_110km_gfs212F096

Don’t panic about it.  It’s still several days away, so we’ll have plenty of time to narrow down the timing and potential severity as the week progresses.  We’ll keep you posted.

Once that cold front moves through, we’ll dry out by Saturday evening, and it’s looking like we’ll stay dry through Monday (the 20% chance is for Monday night):
7 Day PM

Even better?  Check out those forecast low temperatures for Sunday and Monday mornings.  The low 60s aren’t reachable unless the humidity drops a LOT — so not only are we anticipating a break from the heat, but we’re also optimistic about a break from the humidity!
yay2

 

LINKS

A little weather stuff, a little space stuff…you know, science!

  • Some nasty storms ripped through the Upper Midwest yesterday.
  • A photo gallery well worth your time: the winners of NOAA’s “Weather in Focus” photography contest.
  • Since it’s hot and humid, this seems relevant: 19 things you didn’t know about sweat (and one you already knew).
  • I’ve linked to a few articles about the technology that might be involved in exploring Jupiter’s moon Europa, but here’s a good overview article about that planned exploration mission.
  • More moon stuff — Saturn’s moon Titan has lakes that are formed as the moon slowly dissolves.  Really.
  • There are all sorts of “magic numbers” in physics — if they were slightly different, life and even the universe itself wouldn’t exist.

About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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