May 26: Severe Weather Potential Today, Daily Links

Just-after-noon update: SPC has officially dropped us from a “Slight Risk” to a “Marginal Risk” (which is what we should have been in to begin with):
PAUL SEVERE RISK REGION

Specifically, that means they’re estimating a 5% chance of damaging winds within 25 miles:
PAUL WIND RISK REGION

What I said this morning (below) still stands — today’s weather setup just isn’t favorable enough for severe thunderstorms to warrant even the “Slight Risk” category.  We’ll still have numerous showers and thunderstorms throughout the afternoon, and a few of those storms could briefly be strong enough to prompt a severe thunderstorm warning…but it’s more of an inconvenience than a significant severe weather threat.

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WEATHER

I’ll start with this right up top: I’m not very impressed with our severe weather potential today.  While we’re going to warm up to above 80 degrees, the atmosphere is warm enough above our heads that the instability levels won’t be all that high.  (For severe weather outbreaks, we look for warm air near the ground and a rapid temperature drop with height above the ground.)  Also, the wind field isn’t set up to really boost the organization of any thunderstorms that develop today.  So while I expect numerous showers and thunderstorms, especially by midday and this afternoon, I think only a few of those storms will actually approach severe limits.

That said, the Storm Prediction Center continues to include the northern half of the Midstate in their “Slight Risk” area for severe weather today:PAUL SEVERE RISK REGION

Specifically, they’re estimating a 15% chance of 60+mph wind gusts within 25 miles of any point in the risk area…
PAUL WIND RISK REGION

….but only a 2% tornado risk:
PAUL TORNADO RISK REGION

Futurecast is enthusiastic with its development of storms by noon and throughout the afternoon…but they appear unorganized, which limits their severe potential:
RPM 12P TUE RPM 2P TUE RPM 4P TUE RPM 6P TUE

Overall, don’t re-arrange your life because of today’s severe weather threat.  Just stay weather-aware today in case a few warnings are issued — watches and warnings are automatically posted to my Twitter feed (links at the bottom of this post).  To sum up:
PAUL SEVERE RISK GRAPH

 

LINKS

There weren’t too many articles that grabbed my attention this morning, probably because there wasn’t a whole lot of news released over the 3-day weekend.  But still, some interesting stuff…

  • Some of the images from Houston and Austin remind me an awful lot of Nashville in May 2010.  (The Austin link is a particularly good look at the weather they’ve dealt with for the last several days.)
  • Everything you need to know about El Nino in 90 seconds.
  • Some research isn’t relevant until decades after it’s published.
  • 7 big things scientists have learned about sleep in the last 10 years.
  • I’ve tried this with golf, but no luck so far: can visualizing your body doing something help you learn to do it better?
  • Artificial Intelligence might be one step closer to reality.

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Social media links

Twitter: @WSMVweather, @PaulHeggenWSMV, @WSMVLisaSpencer, @WSMVDanThomas, @WSMVNancyVanC, @NWSNashville

Facebook: 4WARN Weather, Paul Heggen WSMV, Lisa Spencer, Dan Thomas WSMV, Nancy Van Camp WSMV, NWS Nashville

About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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