May 25: Wet Memorial Day, Severe Potential Tuesday

11am update: At its current rate of movement, the back edge of the heaviest rain might reach I-65 by 5pm, so I’m losing faith in the Futurecast images below. Just a wet holiday overall. 

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An “all-weather” post for the holiday today…the science-y links will be back tomorrow.

As recently as Saturday, I was thinking that today’s rain chances would mostly take shape in the midday and afternoon time frame, but Mother Nature had other ideas.  Unfortunately, the morning and early-afternoon hours are looking the wettest — no severe weather, just widespread showers and a few thunderstorms.  Those will severely dampen Memorial Day remembrance ceremonies this morning, so grab an umbrella and dress appropriately for the wet weather.  Here’s what Futurecast is showing through early afternoon:
RPM 10A MON RPM 12P MON RPM 2P MON

In short:
yuck

If you’re looking for a time today for outdoor activities, your best opportunity will be in the late afternoon and early evening.  I can’t guarantee dry weather at that point, but it’s when you’ll have the best odds of staying dry.  Futurecast shows both the eastward movement of the heaviest rain, but also the chance for some hit-and-miss showers to pop back up:
RPM 4P MON RPM 6P MON

Of course, all of that assumes that the Futurecast model is correctly simulating today’s weather scenario…which is a hazardous assumption.  “Foolishly optimistic” is my frame of mind for the afternoon and evening:
o-rly

The hit-and-miss showers should quickly quiet down once the sun goes down, but more storms are expected on Tuesday.  Lots of wild cards regarding our storm chances tomorrow, including the specific timing of the highest storm chance, and the potential strength of those storms.  The earlier in the day the storms develop, the lower our severe weather potential will be.  Right now, the Futurecast computer models are holding off storm development until the late morning and early afternoon — at that point the atmosphere would be warm and unstable enough for a few storms to become severe:
RPM 12P TUE RPM 2P TUE RPM 4P TUE

The Storm Prediction Center has included the whole Midstate in a “Slight Risk” of severe thunderstorms on Tuesday:
PAUL SEVERE RISK REGION

Specifically, that means SPC is estimating a 15% chance of severe weather occurring with 25 miles of any particular point in the risk area.

As I mentioned on social media over the weekend, I’m not overly impressed with our severe weather setup tomorrow — there won’t be much wind energy in the atmosphere, and the chance of early-morning clouds and rain is high enough that instability might be lacking by the afternoon.  There are a lot of “if”s and “however”s in play, but the bottom line is that IF storms can get organized during the warmest part of the day, they’ll have the potential to produce 60+mph wind gusts and maybe some 1” hail.  We keep an eye on any storm that develops, just in case.
PETE-EYE-CLOCK-GIF

In general, the weather pattern will remain unsettled through at least next weekend — that means a chance of scattered storms each day, with warm and muggy conditions whenever it’s not raining.
7 Day PM

About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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