May 19: Lower Humidity, Wednesday Storms, Daily Links

WEATHER

We had some dense fog out there this morning, but the drier air working its way into the Midstate helped to disperse that…that drier air is also pushing the slight shower chances farther off to our southeast.  No interference from Mother Nature if you have outdoor plans this afternoon or this evening, and you’ll be able to open up the windows for some free air conditioning tonight:
DT 4 RPM 12KM Temperature

The calm weather won’t last long — scattered showers and thunderstorms will start working their way in from the west on Wednesday.  Arrival times for the best chance of storms are still debatable…one of our Futurecast models paints this picture by late Wednesday afternoon:
PAUL RPM 4KM

…while the NAM model says the scattered storms will hold off until after sunset:
NAM 10P WED

My best advice for Wednesday is to be flexible regarding any outdoor plans after about 3pm — you might still be okay, but be ready to adjust.  I’m really not concerned about severe weather at this point, but we are still in that time of year when any storm that develops could briefly produce gusty winds or large hail.  The Storm Prediction Center has included areas to the south of I-40 in a “Marginal Risk” of severe weather (which equates to just a 5% risk of 60mph winds or 1″ hail within 25 miles):
PAUL SEVERE RISK REGION

Looking ahead to the Memorial Day weekend, Saturday is looking like the most worry-free day.  Sunday and Monday don’t look like washouts, but we’ll have our typical late-spring/early-summer chance of midday and afternoon scattered thunderstorms.  Again, the best advice is to be flexible regarding outdoor plans.
PAUL POOL FORCAST

 

LINKS

Just one weather-related article today, but plenty of other nerdiness…

About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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