May 15: Weekend Storm Chances, Daily Links

WEATHER

An unsettled forecast shaping up as we head into the weekend…we could use the rain, but of course the weekend timing isn’t ideal.  Here’s the 7-day forecast…
7 Day PM

We would love to be able to tell you exactly where and exactly when it’s going to rain, but with this type of weather pattern it just isn’t possible to do that.  Yes, it’s annoying…but it’s annoying for forecasters too!  A few things to remember regarding the weather today through Monday:

  • the driest time of day will likely be in the mornings, but even then a few showers will be possible
  • the best chance of scattered storms each day will be from midday through early evening
  • even on the highest-rain-chance days, there will still be dry periods and gaps in between the storms, so the weekend shouldn’t be a washout
  • while a storm or two could become strong, widespread severe weather isn’t likely
  • it will be warm and muggy in between the scattered storms

If all of that confuses you…
donconfused
…here’s the bottom line: if you have outdoor plans, be ready to adjust — if you’re planning something that is absolutely contingent on dry weather, find an indoor alternative.  Otherwise, just be flexible and roll with whatever Mother Nature sends your way.

If you’re someone who likes to keep an eye on the national weather, tomorrow is looking like an active day.  An “Enhanced Risk” of severe weather has already been outlined by the Storm Prediction Center for the Tornado Alley states…I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if a “Moderate Risk” is eventually included along I-35 in Oklahoma and Kansas:
SPC-Day1

The analog forecasts (comparing tomorrow’s pattern to similar patterns in the past) shows an 80+% chance of at least one severe report in Oklahoma:
SVRall_N1_110km_gfs212F096

 

LINKS

A couple of weather-related links, and some other interesting nuggets from the internet mines today…

  • Another consequence of the strengthening El Nino even in the Pacific Ocean…it increases the chances of 2015 becoming the warmest year on record globally.
  • NASA says that one of the Antarctic ice shelves could disintegrate completely in the next couple of years.
  • I linked to an article about Jupiter’s moon Europa earlier this week…a team of engineers is designing an aquatic robot to explore Europa’s subsurface seas (provided we can find a way to drill through the thick crust of ice on top).
  • A look at some of the biggest unanswered questions in physics, by one of the most well-known theoretical physicists in the country (don’t worry, it’s readable!).
  • I’ll be adding this to the reading list: “To Explain the World: The Discovery of Modern Science.”  Here’s an interesting Q&A with the author.
  • Simple question, complicated answer: why do we sleep?
  • I can’t wait for this to be a standard option on cars: heads-up-display GPS navigation utilizing holograms.  My fiancee will still find a way to ignore the directions and call me for help.  (Her response when I said that to her: “You’re not wrong.”)
  • More sociology than physical science here, but I found it interesting: why you should start doing more things alone.

About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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