March 4-5 Winter Storm

As anticipated, there have been some changes to the forecast since yesterday…unfortunately, those changes don’t change the bottom line a whole lot: Wednesday night and Thursday morning are looking very messy in Middle Tennessee and southern Kentucky.  The exact nature and timing of that messiness are still subject to change…and yes, there’s still time for the forecast to change for the better.  As I say in the video, I’d LOVE to be wrong about this one.  Enjoy…

2:30pm UPDATE: Late this morning, NWS-Nashville trimmed the southernmost counties from the Flood Watch, so that map now looks like this:
Mar4_flood

The NWS is forecasting a faster transition (by a couple of hours, which is a fairly small but important difference considering the complexity of this system) from rain to sleet compared to what I outlined in the video.  For what it’s worth, having seen the early-afternoon model data, I stand by what I said in the video.  Regardless, here’s the National Weather Service’s version of transition times:
Mar4_transition

5:30pm UPDATE: The NWS has upgraded our Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning for the northern half of the Midstate…
image_full9…and a Winter Weather Advisory for the south.
image_full7

Southern Kentucky and West Tennessee, you’re under a Winter Storm Warning as well.  Lincoln, Moore and Franklin counties are still under a Winter Storm Watch.  (Why those three counties?  No meteorological reason — it’s just because NWS-Huntsville issues the advisories there.)
ALL

The snow/sleet accumulation numbers from NWS-Nashville are roughly similar to what I’ve outlined in the video — a little higher in spots, but we’re much closer in our thinking than we were earlier today.  (Please note, these are combined snow and sleet accumulations.)
image_full3

Overall, things are coming into clearer focus compared to 24 hours ago…or even 12 hours ago.  This is looking like a major travel headache beginning already Wednesday evening and continuing through Thursday and even into Friday (temperatures will remain COLD, which will limit how much melting we can do).  I’ll emphasize it one more time: the later arrival time for the rain-to-sleet changeover gives us more time tomorrow to further narrow things down regarding timing and accumulations…but there’s also more time for the atmosphere to change its mind and do something completely off-the-wall.  Stay tuned!

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Social media links

Twitter: @WSMVweather, @PaulHeggenWSMV, @WSMVLisaSpencer, @WSMVDanThomas, @WSMVNancyVanC, @NWSNashville

Facebook: 4WARN Weather, Paul Heggen WSMV, Lisa Spencer, Dan Thomas WSMV, Nancy Van Camp WSMV, NWS Nashville

About paulheggen33

Morning meteorologist for WNCN-TV in Raleigh.
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