A 4WARN Weather Alert Day

Calm and peaceful this morning! Don’t let this fool you…

***Today is a 4WARN Weather alert day!***

VIDEO TVI

Our main weather maker is Tropical Depression Cindy, currently pushing out of Arkansas and Alabama, tracking northeast at 14 mph with sustained winds of 15 mph.

DAPHNE TROPICAL FORECAST

Remnants of Cindy is already making an appearance with widespread rain just west of Middle Tennessee and continues spreading eastward.  Heavy downpours will be possible through late morning before the intensity likely picks up by the afternoon, lasting through the evening.

VIDEO RADAR

It is warm! 8:11 am temperatures run anywhere from the low to upper 70s and because of a thick deck of cloud cover, we won’t warm much further, only touching the upper 70s to lower 80s.WSMV DMA TEMPS ZOOM1_EffectSquiggle Autoplot

Also feeling very sticky out there. Dew points in the lower 70-degree range is a very uncomfy and sticky place to be. (side note of relief: you’ll notice a significant difference for the better by tomorrow! Humidity drops by a large margin!WSMV DMA DEWPOINT STILL1

Here’s the timing of the shower and storm activity today…DD RPM 4KM EVENINGDD RPM 4KM EVENING1DD RPM 4KM EVENING3DD RPM 4KM EVENING4DD RPM 4KM EVENING5DD RPM 4KM EVENING6DD RPM 4KM EVENING7

Here’s the latest form the Storm Prediction Center– all of the Mid State under a ‘Slight Risk’ (level 2 on a 1 to 5 scale) for any storms to reach severe criteria. Damaging wind, flash flooding and isolated tornadoes are all the greatest threats.

DAPHNE SEVERE RISK REGION BOX

I expect an improving pattern as soon as tonight! Lingering moisture keeps the chance for scattered showers through late into the overnight, but as far as the severe-weather threat, it is safe to say that diminishes significantly. So, here’s how much rain we’ve received so far…VIDEO RADAR2

and how much rain that is yet to come…DAPHNE ECMWF RAIN

We are talking anywhere from 1-3″ with locally heavier amounts. This puts a good chunk of Middle Tennessee under a FLASH FLOOD WATCH through noon on Saturday. This means conditions are FAVORABLE for flash flooding so you’ want to stay tuned for updates. Dd WATCH2

One way to do that is to download our free and handy, ‘WSMV WX’ app! This will alert you with watches and warnings, while you’re on the go.4WARN_APP1

Be sure to go under settings and turn the ‘Severe Weather’ alert button ON.4WARN_APP2

After today, we are in for a treat! A stretch of sunshine, a break from the humidity and highs anywhere from the low to upper 80s.WSMV 7 Day AM

I’ll have an update on Tropical Depression Cindy’s track and your weekend forecast coming up on Channel 4 at noon today. You’ll want to stay tuned for updates with Paul Heggen this evening!

-Meteorologist Daphne DeLoren

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4WARN Weather Alert on Friday

A 4WARN Weather Alert is in effect for Friday!  Strong to severe storms are possible on Friday with the added threat for flash flooding.

DT SEVERE STORM THREAT

Early in the morning, expect just showers.  Heavy thunderstorms will develop and organize by midday, as the main band of weather approaches Nashville.  Through the afternoon, the best chance for torrential rain and severe weather will push through eastern Middle Tennessee and over south central Kentucky.

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This potentially dangerous weather will be in response to the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy….moving through southern Arkansas tonight, on its way toward the Midwest.

VIDEO VIPIR

Most of the Mid State is in a “Slight Risk” area for severe storms on Friday.  That’s a level 2 threat, on a scale of 1 to 5.

DT_SEVERE RISK REGION

Look at FUTURECAST below.  Notice at 4pm, the computer depicts many mini supercells (as shown by their kidney bean shape) moving east of the I-65 corridor.  While it all won’t go exactly this way, if we get enough sunshine earlier in the day and temperatures reach the lower-middle 80s, severe storms will be likely.

SO….Friday is definitely a day to remain weather aware and prepared.  Download and configure the *free* 4WARN Weather app as you see below, to ensure any watches and warnings issued reach you instantly!

4WARN_APP1

4WARN_APP2

Temperatures Friday will peak in Nashville around midday.  Then, as the rain moves through, we’ll cool some.

WSMV Day Planner Half

All this rain will wrap up very early on Saturday.  Count on breaking clouds through Saturday as less humid air trickles in.  Sunday will be absolutely gorgeous, with sunshine, highs in the lower 80s, lows near 60, and low humidity!

7 Day PM

Be sure to watch Daphne DeLoren Friday morning on Channel 4 News Today for an update.  Paul Heggen will track the storms for you on Channel 4  News at 4pm, 5pm, 6pm, 6:30pm, and 10pm Friday night.

DT

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June 22: Wet and Stormy 48 Hours Ahead

Tropical Storm Cindy made landfall overnight in southwestern Louisiana — the storm will move north and farther inland today, becoming “extra-tropical” (meaning it will lose its tropical characteristics) tonight and tomorrow.  The center of what’s left of Cindy will track directly over the Midstate late Friday:

The first wave of Cindy’s rain moved into the Midstate this morning.  Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are likely through midday, then we’ll see more of a scattered pattern to the storms this afternoon and evening.  The HRRR model’s radar simulation shows the action between now and late evening:

Temperatures will reach up to around 80° in between the storms this afternoon:That’s warm enough for some of the late-day storms to become marginally severe, but the greatest severe threat today will be closer to the center of Tropical Storm Cindy, off to our south and southwest:

We’ll see a little break from the rain tonight and early Friday — scattered showers will still be possible, but they shouldn’t be a major concern.  Another round of heavier rain and thunderstorms will head our way tomorrow afternoon and evening, as the remnants of Cindy move this way.  Our RPM model’s radar simulation is…um, “colorful”:

The main feature of those storm will be torrential rainfall, which is likely to cause localized flooding problems, and could even cause widespread issues.  Adding up the rainfall over the next 48 hours, the same forecast model shows most of the Midstate picking up at least 4″, with some places approaching 6″ (the yellow areas):

About 1″-2″ of that will fall today, which means we’re talking about 3″-5″ of rain falling onto already-wet ground on Friday.  The National Weather Service office in Nashville hasn’t issued a Flash Flood Watch just yet, but I expect them to do so later today.  The Weather Prediction Center (a separate NOAA agency) shows a Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) of excessive rain over much of the Midstate, with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) elsewhere:

If you live in a spot that tends to have flooding issues (or if your access roads tend to flood), you could have some problems by tomorrow evening.  In addition to the flooding potential, some of the afternoon/evening storms could be severe, with the threat of damaging winds and even isolated tornadoes (typical of a weakening tropical cyclone).  The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms for about half of the Midstate:

I really think they’ll need to expand that risk out to the Tennessee River as well.  The SPC’s own forecast model shows a 50-70% chance of storms with severe characteristics over most of the Midstate and back into West Tennessee late Friday afternoon:

The individual severe-weather statistics aren’t off the charts, but they’re high enough to get my attention.

Bottom line: stay weather-aware today and tomorrow, especially Friday afternoon and evening.  I’ll be posting updates on social media (links at the bottom of this post), and of course we’ll have you covered during our newscasts.

The rain will move through by early Saturday, leaving us with a mostly dry and mild weekend.  I’m leaving a 20% chance of rain in the forecast Saturday through Tuesday, but even that is only out of an abundance of caution.  Little ripples in the atmospheric flow could produce a shower or two, but generally we’re looking at dry weather from Saturday through most of next week:

Cooler-than-normal temperatures will prevail, along with lower-than-normal humidity!  Basically, we just need to get through the next 36-48 hours, then we can relax.

No nerd-links today or tomorrow, since Cindy’s impact on our weather has my full attention…

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Social media links

Twitter: @WSMVweather, @PaulHeggenWSMV, @WSMVLisaSpencer, @WSMVDanThomas, @daphne_deloren, @NWSNashville

Facebook: 4WARN Weather, Paul Heggen WSMV, Lisa Spencer, Dan Thomas WSMV, Daphne DeLoren, NWS Nashville

Instagram: PaulHeggenWSMV

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4WARN Weather Alert: Tropical Storm Cindy on Its Way

Tropical Storm Cindy is on its way to the Louisiana/Texas Gulf Coast.  After that, it’ll pay a visit to Middle Tennessee!  A 4WARN Weather Alert has been issued for our area for Friday because of Cindy’s expected impacts here.

4WARN Alert Logo

Here’s in a nutshell what we can expect over the next couple of days…

DT SEVERE STORM THREAT.png

Notice how huge the storm is.  The cloud mass extends 1,500 miles….from Cozumel, Mexico all the way northward to northern Ohio!

VIDEO VIPIR

Rain is in bands with Cindy….with the heaviest now down in south Alabama and north Florida, rotating in our direction.

VIDEO VIPIR2

FUTURECAST for the overnight shows how the rain will develop over the Mid State.  Be ready for a rainy morning commute across much of the area.

We’ll likely transition from steady rain in the morning to patchy rain during the afternoon.  A little sunshine will be possible once that initial morning rain band pushes through.  That will allow many communities to climb into the lowermost 80s for highs.  Know that if we warm enough during the afternoon, any storms that develop could become severe.  The threat of that though is relatively low though — “Marginal” as classified by the Storm Prediction Center.

WSMV Day Planner Half

On Friday, more rain is expected plus a more significant threat for severe weather.  A 4WARN Weather Alert is in effect for Friday with that higher severe threat and an even better chance for some localized flooding.

I’ll share much more on that coming up in less than an hour, on Channel 4 News at 10pm.  Join us!

DT

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June 21: Tracking Cindy, Daily Links

WEATHER

The big weather story is obviously Tropical Storm Cindy — the center of the storm is still out over the Gulf of Mexico, but it’s spreading rain onshore along the Gulf Coast, and it’s sending high cloud cover over our heads already:

The center of circulation will make landfall near Lake Charles, Louisiana late tonight:

Even with the high clouds overhead, the first full day of summer will definitely feel like it, with increasing humidity and high temperatures near 90° this afternoon:

We’ll see a slight chance of afternoon and evening storms near the TN-AL state line, as the outer edge of Tropical Storm Cindy begins to influence the Midstate — that’s why temperatures there will be slightly cooler.  The HRRR model’s radar simulation shows those showers (maybe a thunderstorm?) in southern Middle Tennessee before a larger area of rain approaches late tonight:

The center of Cindy will still be hundreds of miles to our southwest tomorrow, but the first surge of substantial moisture will already give us our first good chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Our RPM model shows off-and-on activity throughout the day:

A few storms could be strong tomorrow, but the greatest severe weather threat will be closer to the center of what’s left of Cindy, well to our southwest:

We’ll get a chance to dry out a bit Thursday night and early Friday, before another round of heavy rain moves in late Friday.  Returning to the RPM model for the when/where:

Tropical systems are tricky, so we’ll be making tweaks to the timing and placement forecast over the next 48 hours as we get more data.  Localized flooding will be a concern, with 2″-4″ of rain possible through early Saturday morning…again, this pattern could shift around depending on the track Cindy’s remnants:

Because there will be a break between the rounds of heavy rainfall, I’m cautiously optimistic we’ll be able to avoid any widespread flooding.  But we’ll also see a chance of damaging winds or even an isolated tornado on Friday — these tropical storms maintain a decent amount of spin even once they move ashore, so we’ll be watching carefully for any signs of small-scale rotation.  The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a “Slight Risk” (level 2 of 5) for severe weather over southern Middle Tennessee:

I think they’ll have to shift or expand that northward — the SPC’s own forecast model is showing a 50%+ chance of storms with severe ingredients across the Midstate late Friday:

Most of Cindy’s influence should move off to the east in time for the weekend…but I’ll emphasize this point again: tropical systems are tricky.  The two main long-range forecast models agree that Saturday should be mostly dry after a few lingering early-morning showers.  But they’re painting vastly different pictures on Sunday — the American GFS model shows dry weather for the second half of the weekend:

But the European model shows more showers and storms on Sunday:

Usually I buy what the Euro is selling, but not this time — I think the northerly flow of air (that will kick in as what’s left of Cindy moves east) will drag drier air into the Midstate.  My level of confidence in disagreeing with the European model can only be expressed in GIF form:

Therefore, I haven’t removed rain chances entirely from the weekend forecast:

If you have outdoor plans for the weekend, here’s the bottom line…while the dry-weekend chances look more favorable than they did at this point yesterday, we’re not out of the woods yet.  Be flexible with any outdoor plans, and stay plugged-into the forecast as the whole situation evolves.

 

LINKS

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Hello Summer and Cindy

Summer officially arrives at 11:24 PM tonight with the Summer Solstice. This is when the Earth’s Northern Hemisphere, where we live, is at it’s greatest tilt toward the Sun. The Sun is at it’s highest in the sky and the day is at it’s longest.

DT_SUMMER_SOLSTICEDT_SUMMER_SOLSTICE2

On this last day of Spring the afternoon high reached 89 degrees, near the average for this time of year, however the humidity remained low with dew points in the 50s. Not bad for a late June day.

Change is on the way…with a return to humidity and rain as Tropical Storm Cindy heads toward Middle Tennessee. The tropical system strengthened to Tropical Storm status earlier today.

VIDEO VIPIR

Cindy will likely make landfall early Thursday morning along the coast with near 50 mph winds. It is not expected to reach hurricane strength before it comes on shore.

DT TROPICAL FORECAST MOVE2

Ahead of the system more clouds will move into the mid state tomorrow.  The humidity will slowly start to rise and no doubt it will be hot, with a high near 90°. The rain will likely arrive in Middle Tennessee by Thursday morning to the southern most counties.

The core of Cindy will move through West Tennessee and across the Tennessee River by  Friday.  On and off rain will linger into Saturday.  Over the 3 day period we could pick up 2″ to 4″ of rain.

DT RPM 12KM Rainfall Zooms

The ground is not saturated, so we shouldn’t have any widespread flooding problems.  But there could be some isolated flooding issues. And with all that water draining into  creeks and rivers, we could see some minor flooding in areas.

Winds should not be a problem, outside of some strong gusts with thunderstorms.

DT RPM 12KM Wind Gusts

The picture for the weekend does seem to be improving, some models are showing that things will dry up by late Saturday into Sunday.  Since all models are not agreeing with this forecast, we are keeping a chance of rain in the forecast.

WSMV 4DAY FORECAST

I’ll have an update on Channel 4 News at 10pm.

Lisa Spencer

 

 

 

 

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June 20: Watching the Tropics, Daily Links

WEATHER

Pleasant weather in store for us today and most of tomorrow, before our attention shifts to a developing system in the Gulf of Mexico that will bring us heavy rain later this week.  Temperatures today will top out around 90°:

Here’s the really good news — the humidity won’t be a problem at all!  Dew points will stay in the 50s all day, which is right where we want to be on the “muggy meter”:

Increasing mugginess tomorrow, and temperatures will be a degree or two hotter as well:

A good chance of showers and thunderstorms moves in Thursday, Friday and Saturday, courtesy of a tropical system brewing in the Gulf of Mexico — that system is currently classified as a “Potential Tropical Cyclone,” but it could be upgraded to Tropical Storm Cindy later today:

If you’re wondering what the heck a potential tropical cyclone is, you’re not alone — it’s a new product from the National Hurricane Center.  Here’s their official statement:

NHC will in 2017 have the option to issue advisories, watches, and warnings for disturbances that are not yet a tropical cyclone, but which pose the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within 48 hours. Under previous longstanding NWS policy, it has not been permitted to issue a hurricane or tropical storm watch or warning until after a tropical cyclone had formed. Advances in forecasting over the past decade or so, however, now allow the confident prediction of tropical cyclone impacts while these systems are still in the developmental stage. For these land-threatening “potential tropical cyclones”, NHC will now issue the full suite of text, graphical, and watch/warning products that previously has only been issued for ongoing tropical cyclones.

Okay then.  Regardless of the official classification, this system is going to be a troublemaker — the NHC’s forecast path brings the center of circulation onshore near the Sabine River (the border between Texas and Louisiana) tomorrow night:

The main threat will be the abundant moisture that will surge northward on the eastern side of the center of circulation.  Significant flooding is possible along the Gulf Coast of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama — the Weather Prediction Center’s rainfall outlook shows the potential of more than a foot of rain between now and Friday morning:

Locally, our weather will become unsettled on Thursday, as some of the moisture sneaks up into our neck of the woods.  An early look at Futurecast (the high-resolution NAM model, if you’re curious about the nerdy weather details) shows just a slight chance of a shower in southern Middle Tennessee Wednesday afternoon, with a much better chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday night and Thursday:

The best chance of widespread heavy rainfall heads our way late Friday into early Saturday…at least, that’s the way it looks right now.  Because the tropical system in question is so disorganized, the various forecast models are having a hard time figuring out what it’s going to do.  I’m heavily tilting my forecast toward the (generally) more-reliable European forecast model, which shows 2″-4″ of rainfall across most of the Midstate through Saturday:

The Weather Prediction Center is mostly following along with that, although they’re shifting the heaviest rain just slightly southward:
That’s enough to cause localized flooding, so plan on staying weather-aware Friday and Saturday — we’ll keep you updated if any watches, warnings or advisories are issued.  And keep in mind: there WILL be changes to this forecast.  We’re still a few days away from the heaviest rain arriving in our area, so there’s a lot that can happen between now and then.

While the heaviest rain should be out of here by Sunday, it looks like there will still be enough moisture hanging out to produce some scattered showers and storms.  I’ll leave the rain chances at slightly lower than 50-50, just because there’s still so much uncertainty about the specifics of Friday and Saturday’s weather:

We’ll dry out early next week — if we’re really lucky the dry weather will arrive already on Sunday, but I wouldn’t wager on that just yet.

 

LINKS

 

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