Occasionally Stormy Memorial Day Weekend

It’s official!  Occasional waves of strong storms with heavy downpours will move through the Mid State as we celebrate the unofficial kickoff to summer this weekend!

Outdoors as of early Saturday morning, it’s cloudy, mild, and humid.  Downtown Nashville looks like this:

DT VIDEO TVI2

Clarksville’s view…

DT VIDEO TVI3

Temperatures are around 70.  It feels pleasant!

DT DMA TEMPS STILL1

There’s very little rain, as shown on 4WARN Live Doppler Radar.

VIDEO RADAR SPONSOR

Heavy storms however are moving past Paris, toward Dickson.  These are strong, but not severe.  Very heavy downpours, lightning, thunder, and brief gusts to 45mph are possible with them.

VIDEO RADAR SPONSOR2

These storms will continue to slide eastward through the mid-late morning.  Then, isolated storms will form this afternoon.

Our chance for severe weather this weekend is rather significant.  The greatest likelihood will occur late tonight:

DT_SEVERE RISK REGION

Most of this evening will be dry.  Then, a line of severe storms will push in from the northwest, producing damaging wind gusts in many areas of Middle Tennessee.  Torrential downpours are also likely, with much of the Mid State picking up around an inch of rain by dawn.

Clouds will gradually thin tomorrow, allowing for isolated showers and storms to develop tomorrow afternoon and evening.  Some of those could be severe as well.

DT_SEVERE RISK REGION2

THEN, Monday/Memorial Day looks much better!  It’ll be dry for most (20% rain chance, southeast) with highs in the lower 80s.

I’ll be back on Channel 4 News with live updates between 9am and 10am, so be sure to join us.  Alan Frio will have a look at overnight news headlines, too!

Have a great/safe Memorial Day weekend!

DT

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Weekend Weather and Happenings

Beautiful start to this holiday weekend with sunshine and an unseasonably warm high in Nashville of 88 degrees. That is all about to change with an approaching weather system. I have issued a 4WARN Weather Alert for Saturday and Sunday.

A few showers could move in along the Tennessee Kentucky border overnight. The first round of thunderstorms could arrive early tomorrow morning, some of those storms could be strong.  Take a look at the timing on this Futurecast model.

The afternoon will likely be warm and muggy with only a few showers and thunderstorms.  A disturbance will pass through late Saturday and early Sunday morning triggering strong to severe thunderstorms.

The Storm Prediction Center has identified parts of Middle Tennessee as in a “slight” risk and “enhanced” risk areas.  That’s 2 and 3 on a 1 to 5 scale for the severity.

LISA SEVERE RISK REGION

More thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon.  The Storm Prediction Center has much of the Mid State in a “slight risk” zone for the potential of those storms being severe.

DAPHNE SEVERE RISK REGION BOX2

With all that said there area many things going on this weekend. Here are a few, but keep in mind the severe threat and stay weather aware.

Head to First Tennessee Park to watch the Nashville Sounds as they take on the Omaha Storm Chasers tonight at 6:35PM. There are plenty of chances to catch the Sounds over the holiday weekend, they play Colorado Springs Sky Sox Tomorrow through Tuesday.

WSMV FIRST PITCH

 Music City Jazz Festival starts tonight and continues tomorrow beginning at 11AM at Public Square. The festival is the place hear some of the coolest music performed by national recording smooth jazz artists.  Bring a chair and a blanket.
China Lights: Illuminating the Fairgrounds will celebrate the Asian Festival Weekend this weekend as part of the month-long festival at The Fairgrounds Nashville.  Each night from 5:30 to 10 PM, the fairgrounds has been transformed into a dramatic display of color, light, and sound featuring 30 larger-than-life sculptural lantern displays, stage performances highlighting folk-culture, entertainment and activities, and a bustling marketplace.
LS China Lights
Tomorrow night at 7:30PM the Nashville Symphony will perform at Ascend Amphitheater.  It’s a night of Tchaikovsky’s greatest hits featuring “Swan Lake” with dancers from Nashville Ballet, “Romeo and Juliet Fantasy Overture,” “1812 Overture” with fireworks and “Piano Concerto No. 1” with pianist Joyce Yang.
Of course Monday is Memorial Day. There may be a few showers early and across the southeast.  Most of the Mid state will enjoy a warm and sunny day.
Memorial_Day_VerA 2012.png
I’ll have the latest on the forecast on Channel 4 News at 6pm, 6:30pm and 10pm.
Lisa Spencer
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TGIF Sunshine before Weekend Storms

What an incredibly beautiful start to our FRIDAY! I took a few screen grabs of the sunrise and had to share with you…

A shilly start to the morning in the low to upper 50s warm up very quickly! It is only 7:52 AM and many spots have broke the 60-degree mark…

WSMV DMA TEMPS ZOOM1_EffectSquiggle Autoplot

By the afternoon, highs scorch into the upper 80s, about ten degrees WARMER then yesterday…DAPHNE iCast Temperature

So how about humidity? Well, let’s break out the ‘Muggy’ meter…

Dew Point Scale Increasing

Today, we’re still feeling NICE!WSMV DMA DEWPOINT STILL1

An approaching system on Saturday really amps up the moisture, paving way for a soupy weekend ahead. Upper 60s to lower 70s….please stop now.PAUL RPM 4KM DEW POINT

Outdoor TGIF plans are a two thumbs up for this evening — rain-free and warm in the lower 80s. Our first chance of rain and storms arrive on Saturday morning.

Here’s the timing…

DD RPM 12KM EVENINGDD RPM 12KM EVENING1DD RPM 12KM EVENING2DD RPM 12KM EVENING4DD RPM 12KM EVENING6DD RPM 12KM EVENING8DD RPM 12KM EVENING9DD RPM 12KM EVENING91DD RPM 12KM EVENING92

Some of these storms could by strong to severe with damaging wind, hail and heavy downpours as the greatest threats…

Here’s the latest convective outlooks for Saturday (top) and Sunday (bottom)…

DAPHNE SEVERE RISK REGION BOXDAPHNE SEVERE RISK REGION BOX2

Areas under the YELLOW are under a ‘Slight Risk’ (2 on a 1 to 5 scale) of storms reaching severe criteria. The great threat on Saturday will be just west of Middle Tenessee, for areas under the ORANGE color, which is an ‘Enhanced Risk’ (3 on a 1 to 5 scale) of storms reaching severe criteria. Southeastern Middle Tennessee has a lesser threat on Sunday but still in the ball park, under a ‘Marginal Risk’ (1 on a 1 to 5 scale).WSMV 7 Day AM

Besides a few showers for our southeastern counties, Monday is looking fantastic to break out the BBQ for Memorial Day.

I’ll have the full weekend shower and storm timeline coming up on Channel4 at noon today!

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Nice Treat before Rain Returns

Fantastic day today…feeling like fall.  The rain moved out early and the sun started to peek through.  With a light northwest breeze the high in Nashville only reached 75 degrees. It was a nice treat after on and off rain and even yesterdays thunderstorms.

The National Weather Service confirmed a weak EF-0 Tornado yesterday in far western Smith County just across the Wilson/Smith County line. Damage was mostly confined to dozens of trees snapped or uprooted along the 2 mile path. Two barns were uplifted and destroyed off of Hiwasee Road in western Smith County. Winds were estimated at 75-80 mph.

LS 6

The sky continues to clear this evening, so by tomorrow morning it will be cool and clear.  That’s perfect for early birds to see the International Space Station pass by. Look toward the WNW sky at 4:15AM. The ISS is cross the sky for 6  minutes at a maximum height of 50 degrees. It will disappear in the SSE sky.

DT_Spacestation3

A surface high takes over so the rest of the day on Friday will be more summer like with a sunny sky and the heat rising to 86 degrees. It will be breezy again, but this time from the southwest. Friday night the Storm Prediction Center has put Middle Tennessee in a “marginal” risk zone for possible severe storms. But the better chance of rain and thunderstorms moves in Saturday and Sunday.

LISA SEVERE RISK REGION1

A disturbance moves out of the Ohio Valley Saturday bringing the chance of rain and thunderstorms. Some models show that the atmosphere may be capped on Saturday, not allowing convection to develop. So it could be dry for some with most thunderstorms developing north of I-40.  So there is a little uncertainty. Here is one model prediction.

Saturday night into Sunday morning an the approaching front will likely trigger  thunderstorms and some could be strong to severe. with damaging wind and hail the largest threats.  The Storms Prediction Center has Middle Tennessee under a “slight” risk for severe storms.

LISA SEVERE RISK REGION

As the front passes by on Sunday afternoon another round of thunderstorms is likely.

Best advice this weekend is to have a back up plan for any outdoor activities. Monday will be the drier of the three day weekend.

I’ll have an update on Channel 4 News at 10pm.

Lisa Spencer

 

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Pushing Pause Before Messy Weekend Storms

Clouds have not taken away from our beautiful sunrise this morning!

VIDEO TVI

Temperatures are on the chilly side, in the low to upper 50s (8:54 am as I write here).WSMV DMA TEMPS ZOOM1_EffectSquiggle Autoplot

Our morning commute gets a two thumbs up! A few light misty showers have made an appearance for areas east of I-65 but besides that, nada.VIDEO RADAR

A center of low pressure over Indiana, Ohio and Kentucky has bands of ‘wrap around’ rain, extending moisture far enough south for morning spotty rain for our eastern counties. DD SATRAD3D Zooms

Our ‘WSMV WX’ app is very useful and will be especially handy this weekend with strong to potentially severe storms, both on Saturday and on Sunday… DT_WSI Digital Devices

Speaking of which, the Storm Prediction Center has ALL of Middle Tennessee under a ‘Slight Risk’ (2 on a 1 to 5 scale) for any storms to reach severe criteria. An ‘Enhanced Risk’ (3 on a 1 to 5 scale) remains in effect for areas under the ORANGE color, just to our west.

daphne severe new2

It will be a weekend to stay weather aware!

WSMV 7 Day AM

I’ll have updates on storm timing coming up on Channel 4 at noon today. Hope you join me!

-Meteorologist Daphne DeLoren

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Severe Storm Risk Across the Mid State

Today is surely the day for the umbrella! Widespread showers and storms are pounding Middle Tennessee and some are strong enough for the National Weather Service to issue a few warnings for northeastern Middle Tennessee but those are just expiring as I write here (12:47 pm)…

All of this rain is on a northeasterly motion, mainly for areas alongside and north of I-40. I expect widespread activity to transition into more of a scattered event by this evening into the early morning on Thursday…

VIDEO RADAR

The National Weather Service issues a TORNADO WATCH for areas under the RED COLOR until 7:00 pm. WSMV TORNADO WATCHES

The Storm Prediction Center has a ‘Slight Risk’ (YELLOW – 2 on a 1 to 5 scale) and a ‘Marginal Risk’ (GREEN – 1 on a 1 to 5 scale) for any of these storms to reach severe criteria.daphne severe new2

A thick deck of cloud cover significantly impacts temperatures to run cooler then yesterday, only touching the upper 60s for highs.WSMV DMA TEMPS ZOOM1_EffectSquiggle Autoplot

This is all thanks to a center of low pressure, just slightly north of Tennessee. All the RED  colors are where Tornado Watches are in effect — including eastern Kentucky, Georgia, and South Carolina…DD SATRAD3D Zooms

Here’s an idea of rain & storm timing through the remainder of the day into Thursday…DD RPM 4KM EVENINGDD RPM 4KM EVENING2DD RPM 4KM EVENING3DD RPM 4KM EVENING4DD RPM 4KM EVENING5DD RPM 4KM EVENING6

Sunshine and warmer highs in the upper 80s return by Friday before spotty showers and storms quickly make a come back on Saturday. The better chance for showers and storms will be on Sunday…Dd_WeekendOutlook

I’ll be here all weekend with storm updates and answering any questions you may have on Facebook Live. Here’s the link — https://www.facebook.com/daphne.deloren8/WSMV 7 Day AM

Dan Thomas will be tracking showers and storms on Channel 4 at 4 and 6:30 today. Lisa Spencer will have updates at 5, 6 and 10!

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May 24: Wet Wednesday

WEATHER

Rain moved in from the west overnight, and we can expect widespread showers and thunderstorms through early afternoon.  After that, scattered showers and storms will still be possible, but in more of a hit-or-miss pattern.  The HRRR model’s radar simulation gives you a good sense of the overall pattern through early evening:

Highs will only reach the mid to upper 60s today, thanks to the clouds and rainfall:

A few showers will linger tonight into early Thursday, mainly east of I-65:

High temperatures Thursday will reach the low to mid 70s:

We’ll clear out for the end of the work week, making it up to the mid 80s Friday.  Spotty storms re-enter the forecast on Saturday, with highs in the mid 80s again — I’m not entirely convinced of our Saturday rain chances though, which is why I’m leaving it as a less than 50-50 chance.  Have an indoor backup plan ready-to-go in case you need it.  The best chance of rain for the holiday weekend moves in on Sunday:

Memorial Day itself looks mostly dry, with highs in the low 80s.

I’m off the rest of this week, and through early next week — Daphne and Dan will have you covered weather-wise, and the nerd-links will be back on Wednesday!

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