Weekend Weather and Happenings!

Wow, what an electric start to this weekend.  Thunderstorms in Middle Tennessee are lighting up the sky for miles and miles.  Some Friday night football games were postponed and others are on hold waiting for the storms to move on.

LS PICTURE 3

Tonight’s storms are rotating around an area of high pressure which is navigating them in a different direction than most of us are used to.  They are moving from the southeast toward the northwest.  Although they are still very electrical they have diminished in intensity and will continue to do so overnight as they move out of Middle Tennessee. Here’s how Futurecast depicts things for tonight and tomorrow.

WSMV RPM 4KM WxType Stationary1WSMV RPM 4KM WxType Stationary2WSMV RPM 4KM WxType Stationary3WSMV RPM 4KM WxType Stationary4WSMV RPM 4KM WxType Stationary5

So thunderstorms will be more spotty tomorrow.The rest of the weekend will be more of the same in terms of heat and humidity.  Summer is not over yet. Thunderstorms will be more isolated tomorrow.

LISA WEEKEND FORECAST.png

Here are a few of the things going on this weekend…

First of all many some animal shelters are offering free pet adoptions this weekend including Metro Animal Care and Control and the Williamson County Animal Center.If you are looking for a new family member …this may be your time.LS 2

There are a couple of big yard sales this weekend. One is a benefit for Proverbs 12:10 Animal Rescue.  It will be held in Nolensville starting at 8AM.

 

LS 3

The other is the 21st annual Wartrace Town Wide Yard Sale. It runs from 6 AM to 5 PM  and is sponsored by the Wartrace Chamber of Commerce.

LS 4

The superhero heart run will be held tomorrow in Cookeville at TTU’s Tucker Stadium.  It’s a 2K and 5K walk/run.  It’s start at 7:30am.

Tomorrow is the last day of the Wilson County Fair.  If a show pops up you can dash into one of their many exhibit buildings.

Have a great weekend.

Lisa Spencer

updated 9:55 PM

 

 

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Delightful Sunshine Before Increasing Storm Chances

Good morning, sunshine!  A delightful blue sky to start our Friday morning.

VIDEO TVI

Radar looks just as beautiful.

VIDEO RADAR

Smooth sailing and rain-free. That’s what we all like to hear for a morning commute.

Weather story changes going into the afternoon and it all has to do with a frontal boundary positioned just north of Tennessee…

VIDEO VIPIR

This will bring enough moisture to fuel scattered showers and storms, mainly during the afternoon and evening today. Areas that do catch a storm, can expect temporary relief from the scorching heat. Speaking of heat, daytime highs will be dancing into the lower 90s…again.

DD SKY1 TODAY

Our afternoon high of 92 will feel much different after factoring in oppressive dew point values…

daphne RPM 4KM DEW POINT

It will FEEL more like the upper 90s to triple digits…

DD iCast Heat Index

As far as precipitation chances, let’s check in with Futurecast for timing of showers and storms…

am RPM 4KM

I expect the first batch of scattered storms to impact mainly western Middle Tennessee around lunch time. am RPM 4KM.png

am RPM 4KM

Futurecast keeps most of the activity west of I-24 through the evening but I’m not ruling out the eastern half to catch some of the activity. The good news, besides a few isolated storms, I do expect most of the activity to diminish time for high school football.This is the perfect time to download our FREE app, where you can actually check the radar on the go, right there at the ball game.

WSMV_APPS

Saturday brings a few spotty afternoon storms before more of an isolated chance takes over on Sunday through the remainder of the 7-day forecast.

WSMV 7 Day AM

Notice a trend? No escape from the heat! Unseasonably hot temperatures in the lower 90s will feel closer to the upper 90s to triple digits each day.

I’ll have an update coming up on channel 4 at noon today. You can also catch Chief Meteorologist Lisa Spencer at 4, 5, 6 and 10 tonight.

Make it a great day!

 

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Thursday: Parks, Rain,Tropics, etc.

Happy 100th Birthday to the National Parks Service. The parks represent some of the most beautiful areas in our country with their diverse plant life, wildlife and history. We are so fortunate to have the most visited park right here in our state, the Great Smoky Mountains.  NASA has shared some beautiful photos taken from the International Space Station of several of the parks.  This is Olympic National Park in Washington State.

LS 1

Expedition 47 Earth observation composite created with iss47e104138 – iss047e104144. 135C6372-135C6378 Olympic National Park with Seattle and Tacoma in the background NP47

You can see more of  them at this website.

Now let’s talk weather…another warm and muggy night…the thundershowers from earlier have dissipated.We did have some spectacular clouds form today.  Look at this shot Karen captured.

LS PICTURE 3

Tomorrow an approaching front will bring a better chance of shower and thunderstorms.  The front however will not bring any heat relief. Futurecast shows a dry start to the day.  The rain and thunderstorms become more widespread in the afternoon and evening.

WSMV RPM 4KM WxType Stationary1WSMV RPM 4KM WxType Stationary2WSMV RPM 4KM WxType Stationary3WSMV RPM 4KM WxType Stationary4WSMV RPM 4KM WxType Stationary5

I don’t think it’s going to be a washout for Friday night football games, however, I do suggest you be prepared with the wet weather gear if you are headed to the game.  Check back in with us tomorrow for an update.

LS Football Ref

After tomorrow, expect a typical summer pattern for the weekend with hot and sticky days and a chance of isolated thundershowers, especially in the afternoon.  Highs will be in the low 90s and lows will be in the low 70s.

WSMV 4DAY FORECAST

Keeping an eye on the tropics with tropical wave 99-L still a possible threat to the southeast with heavy rain.  The spaghetti lines below represent the different computer forecast models, so you  can see there isn’t a consensus on where it will go. It most likely will not have any impact on our weather here.

WSMV TROPICAL FORECAST

I’ll have an update on Channel 4 News at 10pm or after the football game.

Lisa Spencer

posted 9:10 PM

 

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Sizzling Heat Across Tennessee

My goodness, it hot out there! 12:27 PM as I write here and actual temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s

WSMV DMA TEMPS ZOOM1_EffectSquiggle Autoplot

are really FEELING like the triple digits…

WSMV DMA WINDCHILL STILL1

Though there are no Heat Advisories in effect, it would be very wise to stay heat-aware today so here are a few friendly tips…

LS 2013 Heat Wave Pattern

If you’re working outside, be sure to take plenty of breaks under the shade or inside, where there is air conditioning. Light colors do much better than dark, as it reflect the sunlight rather than absorbing it. Water will be your best friend. Don’t forget to check on elderly, pets and children. This heat and mainly dry weather forecast is all due to a strong area of high pressure over the southeast.

LS TEMPS contours North America

A few afternoon isolated storms are possible but overall, I expect most areas to remain dry. That’s GREAT news, especially for those heading out to Live On The Green this evening!

DD live on the green

You can leave the umbrella at home but you may want to break out the tank top. It will still be very hot and sticky out there.

This heat looks to stick around for the days ahead. In fact, I just checked in on Futurecast for heat indices and here are your reading for tomorrow afternoon. Another round of triple digits. Do I sound like a broken record yet?

DD iCast Heat Index

It will be a perfect day for one of these…

Image result for feeling hot hot hot

As far as shower and storm chances for tomorrow, I kept it at a 30% chance. This is all thanks to an approaching frontal boundary currently draped across Missouri, extending as far north as southeastern Michigan.

VIDEO VIPIR

The main timeline will be between then afternoon and early evening as it shifts eastward. After Saturday, the forecast looks very summer-like. Hot and humid with a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Here’s a sneak peak…

WSMV 7 Day AM

I’ll have the full timeline at 4 on channel 4. Chief Meteorologist Lisa Spencer will have updates at 5, 6 and 10 tonight.

Have a wonderful day!

 

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August 25: Hot and Humid For A While, Daily Links

WEATHER

The heat and humidity are back, and they’re not going to leave us anytime soon.  Today’s highs will climb to the low 90s under partly cloudy skies:
PAUL iCast Temperature
Factor in the humidity, and the heat index will top out near 100 degrees:
PAUL iCast Heat Index
That’s not hot enough for the National Weather Service to issue a Heat Advisory, but take the usual common sense hot-weather precautions — stay hydrated, adjust your pace, find some A/C or at least some shade whenever you can.  Mother Nature could provide some brief relief in the form of a passing shower or storm, but it’s just a 20% chance today…the HRRR radar simulation shows some radar freckles, but nothing substantial:
hrrr_2016082511_ref_nashville
If you’re heading out to Live on the Green downtown this evening, I doubt you’ll need the rain gear.  But be ready to contend with the warmth and humidity!
PAUL EVENT FORECAST 2

A better storm chance will develop tomorrow, but don’t get your hopes up.  The RPM model version of Futurecast shows more activity, but plenty of dry pockets as well:
RPM 12P FRI RPM 2P FRI RPM 4P FRI RPM 6P FRI
In those dry areas between storms, temperatures will reach the low 90s once again:
FRIDAY HIGHS

More of the same this weekend and early next week — in fact, the last few days of August could bring us some even hotter temperatures.  Just a slight storm chance each afternoon:
WSMV 7 Day AM

Notice the phrasing I used above the 7-day forecast — “the last few days of August COULD bring us some even hotter temperatures.”  My hesitance isn’t just due to the fact that those days are the back half of the 7-day outlook (when forecast uncertainty is always higher).  There’s also the slight chance that some tropical moisture will sneak up our way from the Gulf of Mexico — right now it looks like most of that should stay off to our southeast, but that’s far from certain.  The system in question is still just a “tropical wave” near the Dominican Republic:
PAUL SATELLITE TROPICAL
The National Hurricane Center estimates it only has a 50-50 shot of strengthening over the next 48 hours, but an 80% chance of becoming at least a tropical depression (if not a tropical storm or hurricane) in the next 5 days:
two_atl_5d0
The various forecast models on the “spaghetti plot” are in rough agreement where this system will go through the next 72 hours (although they still have varying assessments of intensity):
PAUL TROPICAL SPAGHETTI
After 72 hours though…chaos:
PAUL TROPICAL SPAGHETTI 2
The most-reliable forecast models show a strong tropical storm or Category One hurricane crossing the southern tip of Florida, then traveling up the west coast of Florida.  But until this system actually develops a closed low-level circulation, the medium-range models are going to be all over the place with it.  A more westerly track into the Gulf of Mexico that would eventually funnel some moisture up towards us?  Definitely still possible.  An easterly track that keeps the whole thing off the East Coast of the U.S.?  Not as likely…but also definitely still possible.  Embrace the uncertainty.

 

LINKS

Lots of space stuff in the nerd-links today, but some weather tidbits as well…

  • A mini-outbreak of tornadoes hit Indiana and Ohio yesterday — some of the most-spectacular video was taken as one of the tornadoes flattened a Starbucks.  (Notice the cars in the parking lot aren’t flipped, and the trees aren’t severely damaged — I’m thinking that Starbucks might have had some pre-existing structural issues.)
  • Meteorologist Brad Panovich from the NBC affiliate in Charlotte, NC says that forecasters shouldn’t be afraid to say “I don’t know.”
  • Big space news: astronomers announced the discovery of an “Earth-like” planet orbiting our Sun’s closest stellar neighbor, Proxima Centauri.  I prefer the term “Earth-ish” because all we really know (roughly) is its size — we can’t tell if the planet has an atmosphere, what it would be made of, if there’s water, etc.
  • Some additional perspective on that point — you probably wouldn’t be a happy camper if you relocated to Proxima-b (as the planet is being called).
  • But that doesn’t stop some people from speculating on what types of life could develop on Proxima-b or a similar planet.
  • Proxima-b is the closest Earth-ish planet to us, but it’s far from the only one that has been discovered so far.
  • SpaceX founder and odd-but-interesting person Elon Musk will unveil his plan next month for sending to humans to Mars.
  • Astronaut Jeff Williams has broken the United States record for most days in space.
  • Yesterday was the 1937th anniversary of the eruption of Mount Vesuvius that destroyed Pompeii.  Maybe.  The exact date is one of many uncertainties about the eruption.
  • The Electoral College is even weirder than you think.  Some funky math herein.
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Hot Stuff…100 Year Celebration

Back to above average temperatures today with the high reaching 92 degrees.  The humidity was up too with  dew points back in the 70s, that’s the oppressive zone. This pattern continues tomorrow with highs in the mid 90s and rising humidity.  Very little chance of rain expected tomorrow.

LS 4 RPM 12KM Temperature

A front approaches Friday and increasing the chance of rain slightly.  I mean slightly from 20% to 30%. As the big area of high pressure is firmly east of Middle Tennessee, a strong southerly flow will keep the heat and humidity around through the weekend.

WSMV 4DAY FORECAST

The National Park Service turns 100 tomorrow, August 25.  Yes, it was a century ago that U.S. President Woodrow Wilson signed the act that created the National Park Service.  The declaration read,  “to conserve the scenery and the natural and historic objects and the wild life therein and to provide for the enjoyment of the same in such manner and by such means as will leave them unimpaired for future generations.”

Blog MAIL16_NEEFWeekly_08232016_NPSCentennial_Tents_1120x600

Today, the United States has 412 national parks. The National Parks Service lists 15 Parks, Trails or Historic Sites here in Tennessee.  By far the most famous is The Great Smoky Mountains National Park.  I’ve been visiting it since I was a little girl.  It’s the most visited park in America.

LS Clingmans-3-plaas_1

From Clingman’s Dome

Like all U.S. national parks the warmer climate is having an impact on the Smokies. According to Climate Centeral temperatures are expected to rise in the future.

 

2016NationalParks_Projections_GreatSmokyMountains_en_title_sm

Changes in the national parks vary according to location… in the desert southwest they are becoming warmer and drier, parks in the northeast are becoming warmer and wetter, and parks in the Midwest and southeast are becoming warmer. These changes in climate could affect tourism and recreational activities.

For example:

  • Shorter winters could impact skiing and snowboarding
  • Increased heat, wildfires and reduced air quality could affect hiking, running and biking
  • Drought and reduced stream flow could impact lake and river recreation.

I don’t mean to be Debbie Downer on the eve of this big birthday to celebrate our great park system, but it is something we should all be aware of.

On a much light note, you can visit any of the National Parks starting tomorrow through Sunday, August 25-28.

I’ll have a weather update on Channel 4 News at 10pm.

posted 9:30pm

 

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Hello Heat, Hello Humidity

What a picturesque way to wake up — clouds illuminated with pinks, oranges, and even some purple in there. I snapped this driving through Nashville this morning.

14124250_1165399686836240_2431386222482511163_o

We can actually depict cloud cover across the entire state from an angle, as if we were looking from space. Western Tennessee seems to be hogging the sunshine.🙂

VIDEO VIPIR

A rain-free Wednesday is what Mother Nature has in store for most across Middle Tennessee today. It is 12:35 PM as I write here and this is what the radar looks like:

VIDEO RADAR

Not bad at all! Let’s zoom in to one mini shower — just south of Crossville.

VIDEO RADAR

All else? In the clear! Besides an isolated shower and storm for eastern Middle Tennessee, expect this beautiful radar to remain smooth sailing.

Now let’s turn our attention to temperatures. Upper 80s to lower 90s looks pretty good, right?

WSMV DMA TEMPS ZOOM1_EffectSquiggle Autoplot

It definitely does not feel like this! Dew points are getting real…again.

WSMV DMA DEWPOINT STILL1

So those upper 80s to lower 90s actually feel like this…

WSMV DMA WINDCHILL STILL1

Middle 90s to triple digits. Definitely a day to crank the air conditioning.

h02_ics_airconditioning_100513

This evening will still be hot and humid, but you won’t need the umbrella if you’re heading out to enjoy any outdoor plans.

WSMV SKY1 Evening

Thursday will look very similar to today with the addition of a few more spotty showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon. Let’s check in with Futurecast…

DD RPM 12KM EVENING

AM commute…in the clear.

DD RPM 12KM EVENING

There’s the few spotty storms I expect, right around lunch time.

DD RPM 12KM EVENING

Most of the activity fizzles out right around the evening commute.

The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be with an approaching frontal boundary, on Friday and Saturday.but high pressure will be strong enough to keep the activity at a minimum, just a 30% chance. Here’s the 7-day…

7 Day PM.png

For the full timeline, join Dan Thomas at 4pm and 6:30pm. Chief Meteorologist Lisa Spencer will have updates at 5pm, 6pm and 10pm.

Have a wonderful evening!

 

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