Severe Weather Behind Us AND Ahead of Us

Severe weather is behind us AND ahead of us….of course, with two separate systems, but still in the same week.

Last night’s severe weather outbreak resulted in two tornadoes confirmed in our area.  One was in Decatur County — an EF1 — that packed wind between 100 and 110 mph.  The other (also an EF1) was produced by the same storm, touching down in Lewis County moments later.

DT TORNADO Confirmed

The Lewis County tornado initially set down seven miles west of Hohenwald, at 6:13pm.  It began at Old Hohenwald Road, crossed Highway 412, rolled northeastward, and eventually lifted a couple miles north of Hohenwald.  Much of the damage was to trees that were sheared off or uprooted.  Minor structural damage was also reported by the National Weather Service’s site survey team this afternoon.  The photo below was taken by that crew today.

DT_Picture2

Looking ahead, tomorrow (like today) will be pleasant and uneventful….thankfully!

DT 15

However, come Thursday, the risk for severe storms will return to Middle Tennessee.

DT_SEVERE RISK REGION

From the map above (which shows the likelihood for severe weather on Thursday), the greatest chance for severe weather will be along the Tennessee River.  The lowest risk is for the Cumberland Plateau.  The reason for that is in part due to the timing of the event.

We expect a round of showers and weakening thunderstorms to move in from the west early Thursday morning.  They’ll be left over storms from the night before in Arkansas, outrunning their support, so fizzling as they go.  Severe weather’s not anticipated with those.  Remnant rain from that initial wave will likely even have trouble surviving all the way to the I-65 corridor before dissipating completely.

It’s storms that form Thursday evening, moving in from the west, that have the greatest chance of causing problems/severe weather for us.  Right now, the general consensus from several computer models is that this will occur around dark or just after dark.  The deeper we go into the night, the cooler the lower atmosphere will be, so the less intense the storms should be (as they move eastward).  The latest NAM 3km shown below (one of the computer models we consult) shows its latest “thinking” for how all this will unfold, echoing my description above.  The last frame in the animation is for 1AM Friday (showing the storms east of I-65 by then).

nam4km.refcmp.us_ov.2017032818-loop

SO….we’ve issued a 4WARN Weather Alert for Thursday to help convey this storm threat.  Tonight on Channel 4 News at 10pm, Lisa Spencer will have an update on all of the above.

In the meantime…have a great night!

DT

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Calm After the Storm

Wow, that was quite a storm event yesterday, and I missed the whole thing.  I returned late last night from vacation, but I was watching the radar and seeing the storm reports as I was making my way back home. So far the National Weather Service has confirmed two tornadoes.  One an EF1 in Lewis County where the NWS says it started on Old Hohenwald Road then crossed highway 412.  The tornado finally weakened and lifted just north of Hohenwald. Most of the damage was to trees and there was some minor roof damage.

DT_Picture2D

The other tornado as an EF1 near Decaturville with winds of 100-110mph.

LS PICTURE 3

Today was the calm after the storm.  There’s a nice spring night ahead.  Some clearing will take place so you should be able to see the International Space Station fly over.  It will pass at 8:06pm, lasting 6 minutes, appearing in the WSW sky and disappear in the NE sky.  The maximum height will be 57 degrees.  It will appear as a blinking light moving rapidly across the sky.

DT_Spacestation3

Tomorrow the clouds start to return, but with a southerly wind it will be warmer.  We could pick up a shower or two in the late afternoon. By Thursday a system that is now in the southern plains will move toward us bringing a risk of more severe thunderstorms.  At this time it looks like the greatest threat will be high wind and hail.  We have issued a 4WARN Weather Alert for threat, so be weather aware.

PAUL SEVERE RISK REGION

A few showers may linger into Friday.  The weekend looks fantastic with sunshine and warm temperatures.

WSMV 4DAY FORECAST

I’ll have an update on Channel 4 News at 10pm.

Lisa Spencer

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March 28: A Calm Couple of Days, Daily Links

WEATHER

Tons of severe weather reports from yesterday’s storms — the National Weather Service will be out doing damage assessments today, so some of these “W” symbols in Decatur, Perry and Lewis counties could change to tornado icons:

But the last of the storms are gone, and we get to enjoy a couple of calm days today and tomorrow.  Lots of cloud cover through midday today, with an isolated shower still possible in eastern Middle Tennessee, then partial clearing will kick in this afternoon.  Temperatures will top out around 70° today:

We’ll drop to around 50° tonight:

A mix of clouds and sunshine Wednesday, with highs in the upper 70s:

Another chance of strong to severe thunderstorms heads our way late Thursday and Thursday night.  The Storm Prediction Center has outlined an “Enhanced Risk” (level 3 of 5) for severe storms just to our west and southwest, with the Midstate included in a “Slight Risk” (level 2 of 5):

There’s still significant uncertainty regarding the timing, placement and strength of the severe weather threat, so stay plugged into the forecast for changes.

After some lingering showers Friday, the weekend is looking nice!  Partly cloudy skies both Saturday and Sunday, with highs in the 70s:

 

LINKS

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March 27: Another Severe Storm Chance

WEATHER

We’re starting off the new work week with another chance of strong to severe thunderstorms, moving in during the afternoon and evening.  Temperatures will reach the mid 70s this afternoon before the storms move in:

The various forecast models are still having some disagreements regarding the timing of the strongest storms…overall, I think the pictured here has a good handle on the storm pattern — hit-and-miss activity ahead of the “main event” that will move in by late afternoon and evening:That’s the NSSL-WRF, if you’re keeping track of weather nerdery or trying to cheat at Scrabble.  Smoothing out the timing differences between the models, here’s when I expect the strongest storms to occur:

An important caveat: these storms don’t exist yet.  The forecast arrival times will depend on exactly when and exactly where they develop (around midday) — once that happens, we’ll be able to narrow down those time windows.

This is a much more significant threat than the “borderline” scenario we had on Saturday.  The Storm Prediction Center’s ensemble model (a blend of 25+ different models) shows a 70-90% chance of storms with severe characteristics in the Midstate this afternoon and this evening:

The statistics we use to gauge specific severe weather threats (specifically, the Supercell Composite Parameter and the Significant Tornado Parameter) aren’t off-the-charts, but they’re more than sufficient to have our attention.  Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats, with the tornado risk remaining lower…but certainly not zero!

The SPC has included roughly the western two-thirds of the Midstate in an “Enhanced Risk” (level 3 of 5) for severe weather, which is significant…the remainder of the area is in a “Slight Risk” (level 2 of 5):

If all the Enhanced/Slight/Marginal risk stuff is confusing, that’s totally understandable — this graphic from the National Weather Service should be useful:

Bottom line: plan on staying weather-aware today, especially in the late afternoon and evening.  Social media links are at the bottom of this post — Twitter is a much more useful resource during severe weather.  Facebook is essentially useless for minute-by-minute (or even hour-by-hour) information, because of how its filters affect your feed.

Just a few lingering showers Tuesday, with highs in the low 70s:

Back to the upper 70s Wednesday…before yet another chance of strong to severe thunderstorms will head our way Thursday.  At this point we’re included in the SPC’s “extended” severe weather outlook — we’ll have details on the level of that threat tomorrow (Slight, Moderate, etc.):

Things will quiet down later this week…in fact, at this point the weekend is looking nice!

 

LINKS

Trying to figure out today’s severe weather scenario ate up all my time this morning — the nerd-links will return tomorrow…

 

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Social media links

Twitter: @WSMVweather, @PaulHeggenWSMV, @WSMVLisaSpencer, @WSMVDanThomas, @daphne_deloren, @NWSNashville

Facebook: 4WARN Weather, Paul Heggen WSMV, Lisa Spencer, Dan Thomas WSMV, Daphne DeLoren, NWS Nashville

Instagram: PaulHeggenWSMV

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4WARN WEATHER ALERT for Monday

Wowie! What a delightful finish to the weekend! We started the day with plenty of cloud cover but the sunshine did its thing and quickly took the spot light  by the late morning to early afternoon. Check out these cutie patooties enjoying their Sunday fun day. My morning looked very similar. 🙂

A special thanks to viewer Shawn for capturing and sharing this with our team at pix.wsmv.com. I encourage you to to the same!

Untitled"

With enough sunshine, Nashville managed to touch 74 for a high today — nine degrees above average for late March. Not bad.

Sunshine party comes to an end as soon as Monday. See the system off towards the west? Over Kansas and Oklahoma? That mess is headed our way.

DD SATRAD3D Zooms

The Storm Prediction Center has a good chunk of Middle Tennessee under a ‘Slight Risk’ (YELLOW) for severe weather (2 out of a 1 to 5 scale), mainly spread over I-65 and west. Areas further east under the GREEN remain under a ‘Marginal Risk.’ Damaging winds, and hail will be the greatest threat with some of the strongest storms. Though the threat for tornadoes remain low, an isolated one is not out of question.

daphne severe new

The good news?  Our morning commute is in the clear. Moisture ahead of the system could pull in a few showers late morning. The bad news?The worst of the storm is expected during prime evening commute time.

Check it out…

DD RPM 4KM EVENING

DD RPM 4KM EVENING2DD RPM 4KM EVENING3DD RPM 4KM EVENING4DD RPM 4KM EVENING5DD RPM 4KM EVENING6

The worst of things are expected to fizzle out before midnight with lingering showers taking over overnight into Tuesday morning.DD RPM 4KM EVENING7DD RPM 4KM EVENING8

If you have not already, please be sure to download our FREE and handy ‘WSMV WX’ app. This will help keep you ahead of the storm. You’ll want to make sure Severe Weather Alerts are turned ON, like so –>

DT_WSI Digital Devices4WARN_APP2

With all this said, we are under a 4WARN WEATHER ALERT on Monday. Please be tuned in for updates as the day progresses. The second half of Tuesday and Wednesday are looking lovely. Thursday and Friday brings our next chance for showers and thunderstorms before a weekend break arrives!

7 Day PM

I’ll have the full storm timeline coming up on Channel 4 at 10 tonight! Hope you join!

-Meteorologist Daphne DeLoren

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Plenty of Spring Showers & Thunderstorms This Week

Spring showers and thunderstorms will be plentiful this week.  There will even be some today.  In fact, light showers are moving through eastern Middle Tennessee right now.  Take a look at 4WARN Live Doppler Radar (as of 7:45am)…

VIDEO RADAR SPONSOR

Temperatures are in the 50s, so it’s cool.  If you’re about to venture out, you’ll probably want to take a light jacket.

DT DMA TEMPS STILL1

It’s cloudy for the majority of the Mid State.  However, a few (and I mean very few) of you are enjoying a little early morning sunshine.

VIDEO VIPIR

Peeks of sunshine should become a little more prevalent this afternoon.  With that, we’ll have a high in Nashville of 74 degrees.

DT_DAYTEMPS3

Across the rest of the area, count on top temps in the upper 60s to middle 70s.

DT 4 RPM 12KM Temperature2

More rain’s in the forecast for Monday.  During the morning, we’ll have a few passing light showers.  Later in the day though, count on a better chance that showers and storms will develop.

A few storms on Monday could be severe with damaging wind and hail.  It won’t be a big outbreak of severe weather, but we should have more than we had yesterday (when we received just one report of wind damage, east of Pulaski, TN).  The Storm Prediction Center has us in a Slight Threat for severe storms on Monday afternoon and evening, which seems reasonable given the anticipated warmth, humidity, wind field, and dynamics in the upper atmosphere.

DT_SEVERE RISK REGION

Additional storms are likely to develop Thursday, with rain lingering through Friday.

SO….make sure at the very least your wipers are in good enough shape to get you through the week.  If you’re a home owner and you haven’t fertilized your lawn yet, today would be perfect to do that, so it can get soaked in.

Coming up on Channel 4 News Today….between 8am and 9am, I’ll have more on the storm threat for tomorrow and Thursday.  We’ll also touch on what I expect for weather NEXT weekend.  We hope you join us!

DT

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Showers and Storms March Through

After a beautiful finish to the week, the weather pattern makes a little U-turn to kick start the weekend. Mainly cloudy skies, wind gusts up to 33 mph in Nashville, and thundershowers are the main highlights. Here’s a peak outside our Downtown camera…mood setter for a movie and popcorn kinda night, huh?

VIDEO TVI

Ready for some good news? The Storm Prediction Center lifts the ‘Slight Risk’ for severe storm development off, keeping a ‘Marginal Risk’ around. Clouds combine with lower humidity to create a more stable atmosphere. We’re not completely out of the woods for a few strong to severe storms (damaging winds will be the greatest threat) but safe to say…things are looking much better.

daphne SEVERE RISK REGION

Here’s a RADAR UPDATE (3:43 PM) — Light to moderate and a few heavy downpours are marching through Nashville, Murfreesboro, Manchester and Winchester, just to name a few…VIDEO RADAR

Here’s a wider view, showing the bulk of the mess currently to our south, hammering parts of Mississipi and Alabama…VIDEO VIPIR

Let’s check in with Futurecast for timing of the showers and storms this evening through Sunday…DD RPM 4KM EVENINGDD RPM 4KM EVENING2DD RPM 4KM EVENING3DD RPM 4KM EVENING4DD RPM 4KM EVENING5DD RPM 4KM EVENING6

Lingering moisture will keep showers and a few storms in the picture, mainly Sunday morning but areas to the east could see a few more showers pop up during the early afternoon.

If you’re looking for fun plans, you may want to check out the Nashville Chilli Festival! Our very own Joe Dubin will be the judge of some fine tasting chilli, which starts around noon. Sounds like a great time!DAPHNE EVENT 1A

Get out there tomorrow and ENJOY the drier finish to the weekend as more showers and potentially severe thunderstorms return as soon as Monday.7 Day PM

I’ll have updates coming up on Channel 4 at 5, 6 & 10 tonight! Hope you join me!

-Meteorologist Daphne DeLoren

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