January 23

WEATHER

Still quite a bit of shower activity east of I-65 this morning, but that will gradually wind down as we head towards midday.  The HRRR model’s radar simulation shows just a few lingering sprinkles along the Cumberland Plateau by this afternoon:
hrrr_2017012312_ref_nashville
We’ve already reached our high temperatures for the day — now we’ve dropped to the upper 40s, and that’s where temperatures will remain through this afternoon:
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Breezy conditions throughout the day, with gusts well over 20 mph:
paul-rpm-wind-gusts
The National Weather Service has posted a Wind Advisory for eastern Middle Tennessee, effective until noon:
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The counties that aren’t in the advisory certainly won’t be calm, but the wind won’t quite reach advisory criteria (sustained winds over 25 mph, or gusts to 40 mph).

Chilly tonight, as temperatures drop into the mid 30s by early Tuesday morning:
tuesday-lows
Morning clouds will dissipate, leaving us with a nice amount of sunshine and highs in the upper 50s Tuesday afternoon:
tuesday-highs

One more warm day Wednesday, with highs in the low to mid 60s…but a cold front will be moving in, sparking a few showers in eastern Middle Tennessee during the afternoon:
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That cold front will drop us into a “normal” January weather pattern from Thursday into early next week.  That means high and low temperatures will be close to average, in the 40s for highs in the 20s for lows:
wsmv-4-plus-4-am-2

If you’re not a winter enthusiast, here’s some good news…it doesn’t look like the near-normal temperatures will last too long.  The Climate Prediction Center’s (experimental) 3-4 week outlook shows a pretty good chance of above-average temperatures in early to mid-February:
wk34temp

 

LINKS

 

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Workweek Weather

Nashville hit a high of 67 degrees today, exactly twenty degrees above average! Clouds continue to hover over but not everyone sees the rain tonight…

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Main impact continues to be for our southeastern counties. Light, moderate and even a heavy downpour, indicated by the red color in Marion County…video-radar

It all has to to with an area of low pressure just to our southwest, working its way towards the east…video-vipir

Futurecast confirms shower chances are best for our eastern counties through tonight into the first half of Monday…dd-rpm-12km-eveningdd-rpm-12km-evening2dd-rpm-12km-evening3dd-rpm-12km-evening4

Winds shift gears to be out of the northwest after midnight tonight and gusts will be as high as 30 mph at times on Monday. Not only will this funnel in cooler lower 50s but it will FEEL even cooler! A nice breakthrough of sunshine comes into play by Tuesday before a weak approaching system brings spotty showers on Wednesday and Thursday. Delightful sunshine arrives on Friday into next weekend, coming at the cost of cooler low to middle 40s.wsmv-4-plus-4-pm

I’ll have the full shower timeline coming up on Channel 4 at 10 tonight!

-Meteorologist Daphne DeLoren

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Unsettled End to the Weekend & Start to Next Week

After a pretty Saturday afternoon with lots of sunshine and a high of 70, clouds and showers have returned on this Sunday morning.  Here’s a look at 4WARN Live Doppler Radar (as of 7:30am).  It shows several areas of rain sliding toward the north.

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We also have some sunshine developing over southern Middle Tennessee!  See the clearing area?

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This clearing will also push toward the north making for an hour or so of sunshine for many of you.  You can see it from one of our cameras over downtown Nashville now.

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Meanwhile, we have much more cloudiness and rain farther west.  All this will move through our area over the next 24 hours.

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Temperatures are in the 50s now, so our mild theme continues…

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This afternoon, we’ll have highs in the low 60s in most areas, with more clouds and showers.

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Take a look at FUTURECAST and how it shows rain through today, tonight, and tomorrow.  SO….it’ll be showery.  At times, we’ll have dry weather.  At other times, we’ll have heavy downpours.  A little pea size hail is even possible late this afternoon into this evening, but we’re not expecting any severe weather.  That threat will be much farther south today.

Wind will increase overnight as the storm producing today’s rain begins to depart.  Check out how wind gusts will build, mainly after midnight.

Tomorrow, with that strong northwest breeze, it’ll be much cooler.  We’re also still expecting even chillier air to return by Thursday and linger into next weekend.

wsmv-4-plus-4-am

I’ll tell you much more about what I’ve written above on Channel 4 News Today, from 8am until 9am.  We hope you tune in!

Have a great weekend!

DT

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Calm Before the Storm

A cloudy and rainy start to our day cleared up just in time for a sunshine fix by the afternoon. Loyal channel 4 viewer Tim snapped this beauty shot from an airplane. How beautiful…

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Here’s another from Dominique of Clarkesville, just before the sun broke through. Thank you both for sharing!

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Things remain quiet across the Mid State as I type here. Rain-free and still mild in the low to upper 50s…

video-tvivideo-radarwsmv-dma-temps-zoom1_effectsquiggle-autoplot

A strong system continues developing just to our southwest, currently hammering Arkansas, Mississippi and Alabama with severe weather . A lifting warm front will lift these showers and storms into Middle Tennessee overnight into Sunday morning. Some storms could be strong to potentially severe with large hail and damaging winds as the main threats.

dd-satrad3d-zooms

The Storm Prediction Center has the greater severe weather risk to our southwest. Areas under the yellow color are fall under a “Slight Risk’ (2 out of a 1/5 scale) and a good chunk of Middle Tennessee falls under a ‘Marginal Risk’ (1 out of a 1/5 scale).dt_severe-risk2-region

Let’s check in with Futurecast for timing…dd-rpm-12km-eveningdd-rpm-12km-evening2dd-rpm-12km-evening3dd-rpm-12km-evening4dd-rpm-12km-evening5dd-rpm-12km-evening6dd-rpm-12km-evening7

Most of the rain is out of here by early Monday morning and a much drier pattern will take over through the second half of Monday into Tuesday. Here’s how much rain is expected through noon on Monday — up to 3″ possible with locally heavier downpours…daphne-ecmwf-rain

Delightful sunshine returns by Tuesday before our next approaching system brings some rain on Wednesday…not a wash out by any means.

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Meteorologist Dan Thomas will be tracking showers and thunderstorms with you on channel 4 starting at 5 am tomorrow. If any severe weather breaks out before then, either myself or he will break in with updates! Sitting in the weather center eyeing the storms as I wrap up this blog.

Have a great night!

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Mixed Bag Saturday, Unsettled Sunday, & Cold Returns Soon

A very busy weather pattern will continue through the next week.  It’ll feature more mild air, some rain, a few thunderstorms, and eventually a return to much colder conditions.

Let’s start with today.  Clouds have moved in overnight and rain is now (as of 7:45am) in progress over southern Middle Tennessee.

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It’s expanding northward, closer to the I-4o corridor too.  In Lawrence County in particular we even have some thundershowers.  There won’t be any severe weather with this batch of rain early today though…just a little thunder and lightning.

These showers and thunderstorms this morning are all part of a larger parent system to our south that spawned a significant tornado overnight in Hattiesburg, Mississippi!

video-vipir

As the system slides eastward today, it’ll take its shield of rain and many of the clouds with is.  SO….we’ll see some sunshine in many communities this afternoon.

Here’s a look at FUTURECAST showing the progression of today’s system.

Temperatures will climb nicely this afternoon, as clouds part:

dt-4-rpm-12km-temperature2

Overnight, another round of rain and thunderstorms will move in, likely holding off until after midnight.

Some of the thunderstorms along the TN/AL/MS line could be strong-severe with hail and some damaging wind gusts.  However, the severe threat is notably higher over central Mississippi and central Alabama.

These storms should exit the Mid State by dawn tomorrow.  THEN, through the afternoon expect just showers with a few embedded downpours.

Rain will gradually exit on Monday, as cooler air filters in.

However, even colder air will take over by the end of the week.  I’ll tell you more about that…and talk more about the storm threat for tonight on Channel 4 News Today between 8:30am and 9:30am.  Daphne DeLoren’s back tonight with the latest on Channel 4 News at 5:00pm.  We hope you tune in!

Have a great weekend!

DT

 

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January 20: Warm & Wet Weekend

WEATHER

Temperatures warmed up to near-record territory today…and more importantly, we finally saw some sunshine!
ebv2l

More warmth in store over the weekend, but with more rain headed our way as well.  The first batch of rain looks like it will mostly miss us to the south, early in the day Saturday.  The HRRR model’s radar simulation shows some showers trying to sneak into Nashville, but the best chance of rain farther to the southeast:
hrrr_2017012022_ref_nashville
Other forecast models keep Nashville completely dry, so I’m not going to get carried away with rain chances along I-40.

Temperatures tonight will drop to the mid 50s…
saturday-lows
…then we’ll warm up to the upper 60s Saturday afternoon:
saturday-highs

A better chance of rain will move into the entire Midstate late Saturday night and Sunday.  Switching to the RPM’s radar simulation, it depicts a line of strong storms weakening as it moves south-to-north into the Midstate in the pre-dawn hours of Sunday morning:
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The severe weather threat this weekend will mostly stay down to our south, but the Storm Prediction Center has included much of the Midstate in a “Marginal Risk” (level 1 of 5) of severe storms, with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) clipping our southern counties:
paul-severe-risk-region
The severe weather threat will last most of the weekend in Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia, but around here it should be confined to that late-Saturday-night time frame.

Rain will continue off-and-on throughout the day Sunday:
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Temperatures Sunday will still reach the low 60s in between the showers.  Cooler weather moves in to start next week, but we’ll still be above-average, with highs in the low 50s Monday and the upper 50s Tuesday:
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The pattern flip-flop I wrote about yesterday is still looking likely by late next week.  A cold front will spark some spotty showers on Wednesday — once that front moves through, temperatures will dive back to near-normal or even below-average levels:
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The nerd-links will be back on Monday…inauguration coverage dominated all of my usual science-news sources today!

 

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January 19: Pattern Change Ahead, Daily Links

WEATHER

Widespread rain will continue across the Midstate most of this evening, gradually shifting to the east after midnight.  The HRRR model shows the wet pattern:
hrrr_2017011922_ref_nashville
Temperatures will be nearly steady, only falling to the mid 50s by Friday morning:
friday-lows

Spotty showers will still be possible to start the day Friday, then we should be dry Friday afternoon and Friday night.  We’ll warm up to the upper half of the 60s Friday afternoon:
friday-highs

A warm but unsettled weekend in store, with a decent chance of showers south of I-40 on Saturday, and rain expected areawide on Sunday.  Despite the rain, temperatures will still reach the 60s for highs both Saturday and Sunday:
wsmv-4-plus-4-pm

We’ll be in a cooler pattern Monday through Wednesday, but temperatures will still be above-average.  After that?  Check out the tail end of the “4-plus-4cast”:
wsmv-4-plus-4-pm-2
The long-range models have been hinting at this for a while — a pattern flip-flop that would bring typical wintertime temperatures back into the Midstate.  I even added a chance for a few mixed rain/snow showers next Friday, but that’s a looooooooong way off at this point.  NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is on the same page, at least in terms of temperatures — their 8-14 day outlook indicates a significant chance of below-average temperatures extending into early February:814temp

 

LINKS

Most of today’s links have to do with yesterday’s confirmation that 2016 was globally the warmest on record.

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