February 25 Snow Update

As I said on Twitter this morning, this has been my inner monologue every time new forecast model data comes in:
direwolf

followed by:
bartletheadsmackgif.gif~c200

To say the least, it’s been a frustrating experience to try to pin down the details of what/where/when with this system.  Here’s my best effort…

12:30pm UPDATE: dry air over the Midstate is definitely eating away at the snow’s northward progress.  I’d bet on the later end of the arrival times outlined in the video.

3:30pm update: Even the “later” times in the arrival windows were too optimistic.  Monitoring the radar trends, NWS-Nashville has issued this graphic to outline the expected snow-start times…
Feb25_NWS-timing

Their updated snowfall estimate:
Feb25_NWS-snow
I still think those numbers are too high for Metro Nashville — I stand by the pattern I outlined in the video, with a sharper gradient between “a lot” (along the TN/AL line) and “nothing” in northwest Middle Tennessee and the western half of southern Kentucky.  As I’ve said in previous blog posts, I point out the difference between my forecast and NWS-Nashville not as a criticism of their work (we coordinate with and just genuinely LIKE the folks at NWS!) but as an example of how experienced forecasters can interpret the data in slightly different ways.

As I mentioned in the video, I’ll post any other updated NWS graphics in this space.  Stay tuned for more updates during our normal newscasts this evening.  I’ll be posting updates on social media as well until I go to bed (don’t even ask how early that is)…and then I’ll see you dark and early Thursday morning!

——————–
Social media links

Twitter: @WSMVweather, @PaulHeggenWSMV, @WSMVLisaSpencer, @WSMVDanThomas, @WSMVNancyVanC, @NWSNashville

Facebook: 4WARN Weather, Paul Heggen WSMV, Lisa Spencer, Dan Thomas WSMV, Nancy Van Camp WSMV, NWS Nashville

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , | 3 Comments

February 25 Snow Potential

Yes, we could see more snow tomorrow.  No, it’s not a guarantee.  You know the drill.  Things are trending in a snowier direction, but the #SnowDome has been rebuffing all challenges for four-plus years in Nashville.  Stay tuned for updates…

For what it’s worth, the European forecast model puts Metro Nashville right on the edge of the 1″ snowfall line…but it’s been trending northward with every new batch of data.  Since I recorded the video, a new version of the SREF model basically held serve, maintaining roughly the pattern and amounts I showed in the video.

UPDATE: NWS-Nashville has now issued a Winter Weather Advisory (for 1″+ of snow) and Winter Storm Warnings (for 3″+ of snow) for many counties in the Midstate…
image_full3

As always, some subtle differences between the NWS accumulation forecast and the one I included in the video, but they’re quite similar…
image_full8

Stay tuned for more updates during our normal newscasts this evening and tomorrow morning, and I’ll have an updated blog post posted by 10am (or thereabouts).  I’ll be posting a few updates on social media as well, as data trickles in…

——————–
Social media links

Twitter: @WSMVweather, @PaulHeggenWSMV, @WSMVLisaSpencer, @WSMVDanThomas, @WSMVNancyVanC, @NWSNashville

Facebook: 4WARN Weather, Paul Heggen WSMV, Lisa Spencer, Dan Thomas WSMV, Nancy Van Camp WSMV, NWS Nashville

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

Ice Storm Update

Two points that I make in the video below that I want to emphasize:

1) The precipitation (snow, sleet, then freezing rain) will be very light as it starts.  Don’t be fooled into thinking that it will stay that way!  The showers, especially those of freezing rain, will intensify and become steady this evening and overnight, so conditions on the roads will deteriorate throughout the evening.  Power issues will also be more prevalent as the weight of the ice on lines and trees increases overnight.

2) Still plenty of ways this storm can evolve that will end up changing our forecast for the better.  Those are outlined in the video.  The point is, plan for the worst and hope for the best — always a good policy, but especially when it comes to ice storms.

Enough typing!  Watch…

I’ve fielded a LOT of travel-related questions on Facebook and Twitter, enough that I posted this:
Travel

NWS-Nashville put out some relevant graphics for this storm, and I want to make sure I acknowledge their interpretation of things — some very subtle differences with what I outline in the video, but we’re pretty much on the same page with this one.
NWS1
NWS2
NWS3

As always, stay tuned for updates.  We’re getting an early jump this afternoon, starting our newscasts at 3pm instead of 4pm.  The whole weather team will be in for that.
assemble

I’ll be posting updates and sharing information (and pictures that come my way) on social media even once I leave the Channel 4 building…thanks in advance for being our eyes and ears out there.  Stay safe!
giphy

——————–
Social media links

Twitter: @WSMVweather, @PaulHeggenWSMV, @WSMVLisaSpencer, @WSMVDanThomas, @WSMVNancyVanC, @NWSNashville

Facebook: 4WARN Weather, Paul Heggen WSMV, Lisa Spencer, Dan Thomas WSMV, Nancy Van Camp WSMV, NWS Nashville

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Iceapalooza 2015

I say this in the video, but I’ll re-emphasize it in print: our best chances to avoid significant icing in the Midstate will be either A) less precipitation than the models are showing (the most likely possibility), or B) warmer air than the models are showing (less likely, but not impossible).  As always, prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

4:20pm UPDATE: New graphics from the National Weather Service below — the NWS-Nashville, NWS-Huntsville and NWS-Memphis offices have issued a Winter Storm Warning for all of our Tennessee counties, while the NWS-Paducah office has opted for a Winter Weather Advisory for the western half of southern Kentucky.  NWS-Louisville still has the eastern half of southern Kentucky in a Winter Storm Watch.  Confused?  Yup.  That’s part of the joy of having five different NWS branches issuing advisories for our viewing area.
Feb20_NWS-overview

But here’s the main point.  NWS-Nashville is concerned about the same issues I outlined in the video posted above:
Feb20_NWS-impact

And, they’re even more pessimistic regarding the timing of the changeover from icy precipitation to just rain:
Feb20_NWS-timing

As always, stay tuned for updates.  Lisa and Dan have you covered on-air this evening, and I’ll be on your TV beginning at 4am tomorrow with a new batch of data to (hopefully) clarify things further.  For now, I stand by everything I said in the video: there are still some factors that could alleviate our ice potential, but for now things aren’t looking great.  Plan accordingly.

——————–
Social media links

Twitter: @WSMVweather, @PaulHeggenWSMV, @WSMVLisaSpencer, @WSMVDanThomas, @WSMVNancyVanC, @NWSNashville

Facebook: 4WARN Weather, Paul Heggen WSMV, Lisa Spencer, Dan Thomas WSMV, Nancy Van Camp WSMV, NWS Nashville

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 5 Comments

More Winter Weather Ahead

Bitterly #StupidCold temperatures tonight, then another “complicated” system moves in Friday with snow, sleet, freezing rain…and eventually plain ol’ rain.

——————–
Social media links

Twitter: @WSMVweather, @PaulHeggenWSMV, @WSMVLisaSpencer, @WSMVDanThomas, @WSMVNancyVanC, @NWSNashville

Facebook: 4WARN Weather, Paul Heggen WSMV, Lisa Spencer, Dan Thomas WSMV, Nancy Van Camp WSMV, NWS Nashville

Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments

Snow??? COLD!!!

It might snow.  It WILL be #StupidCold.  Maybe even #RealityTVCold.  Here are the details…

——————–
Social media links

Twitter: @WSMVweather, @PaulHeggenWSMV, @WSMVLisaSpencer, @WSMVDanThomas, @WSMVNancyVanC, @NWSNashville

Facebook: 4WARN Weather, Paul Heggen WSMV, Lisa Spencer, Dan Thomas WSMV, Nancy Van Camp WSMV, NWS Nashville

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

Presidents Day Winter Storm

Okay folks, here you go!  The usual “stay tuned for updates” and “the forecast could still change” disclaimers apply, but this is our best estimate at this point regarding how things will play out.  I click through some of the maps pretty fast, so be ready to utilize the pause button if you want a longer look.  Enjoy!

See you on TV tomorrow morning…stay safe!

——————–
Social media links

Twitter: @WSMVweather, @PaulHeggenWSMV, @WSMVLisaSpencer, @WSMVDanThomas, @WSMVNancyVanC, @NWSNashville

Facebook: 4WARN Weather, Paul Heggen WSMV, Lisa Spencer, Dan Thomas WSMV, Nancy Van Camp WSMV, NWS Nashville

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 5 Comments