Short Sleeves Weather SOON!

Alright winter!  I heard Southwest is having a sale.  What don’t you hop on the next flight and get outta here!  PLEASE!!!

Have you had sentiments like that yet?  If not, you might after this coming weekend when even more Arctic air rolls in.

HOWEVER, short sleeves weather’s coming soon!

Take a look at 5pm temperatures across the Southern Plains.  It’s in the 70s in both Dallas & Oklahoma City!


Meanwhile, we’re freezing here with temperatures in the 20s and snow’s falling again(photo:  outside Channel 4, moments ago).


We’ll warm above freezing tomorrow and soar into the middle 40s on Friday.  Then, we get cold again.  One week from this Friday….we’re talking February 19th….MUCH warmer air will move in!  Here’s a sneak peek of our outlook for then.  Thursday, the day before, should also be quite mild!


However, a whole lot will take place between now and then.  Lisa Spencer will sort that out in moments on Channel 4 News at 6pm.  I’ll have my take on the Arctic air for this weekend and our winter storm due to move in late this Sunday into Monday, on Channel 4 News at 6:30pm.


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February 10: More Snow Chances Ahead, Daily Links


The snow showers are finally winding down across the Midstate, and sunshine will help melt the ice and snow from area roads.  It will be COLD sunshine though, with highs only in the neighborhood of freezing this afternoon:
PAUL RPM 4KM Temperature
For perspective, today’s average high is 50 degrees.  We’re not going to hit 50 again until the middle of next week.

The next chance of light snow moves in already late this evening and tonight.  In fact, as soon as I hit “publish” on this morning’s initial post, some more forecast data arrived that speeds up the arrival of the next batch of light snow.  Futurecast shows light snow showers approaching from the northwest and scooting through the northern half of the Midstate this evening through early Thursday morning:

Once again, the forecast models aren’t over impressed with our accumulating snow chances — they’re saying we’ll only get a dusting out of this.  The National Weather Service said in their technical discussion this morning that they anticipate less than a quarter-inch of snow (which also translates to “dusting”).  But, the pattern recently has been for the atmosphere to “over-achieve” when it comes to snowfall, and that has made me a little gun-shy…so I’m going with this forecast for tonight into early Thursday morning:

Mercifully, that should be it for the snow chances for a few days.  We’ll go back and forth with clouds and sunshine from Thursday afternoon through midday Sunday.  And then things get REALLY complicated.  Another storm system will swing our way by late Sunday through Monday, and this one will have more moisture to work with.  Once again, we’ll find ourselves either on or very near the rain/ice/snow dividing line, which once again means the first step in the forecasting process will be this:
Bartlett head bang
As I type this (mid-morning on Wednesday) both the American GFS model and the European model are pointing toward several inches of snow for the northern half of the Midstate — problem is, for the last few days those models have been flip-flopping with each other and within their own output.  Sometimes they say we’ll see mostly rain, sometimes it looks like a big snow event, sometimes it looks like an ice storm.  For now, I’m leaving the forecast for Sunday night and Monday as a rain/ice/snow mix, with amounts yet-to-be-determined:
7 Day PM
It would be nice if, just once, we had a winter weather forecast that was relatively simple to figure out.  But for now, it looks like this weather pattern will try to treat me like the treadmill treats this guy:





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Weather Update Feb 9

The snow is finally tapering off to just flurries in many areas.  There are still a few pockets of heavier snow but the trend is for lighter coverage.  The Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until tomorrow morning at 6am.


The big story tonight will be the frigid temperatures.  Also remember the winds will make it feel even colder.  By Wednesday morning many spots will feel like the single digits, check out the futurecast model.

DT 4 RPM 12KM WindChill

We certainly received more snow than we were initially expecting…the huge area of low pressure across the east just kept pumping in the snow bands.  A dusting became and inch plus in some spots. Here are a few totals reported.

City Value Table

The combination of this blanket of snow and the frigid temperatures will make for slick roads tomorrow.  Here are few reminders of what this means for us.LS Check Mark

We are not quite done with winter weather.  Another little blast of snow is possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  A big surge of cold air comes back in over the weekend.  And for Valentines Night into Presidents Day we could see a winter mix.

7 Day PM

Saying goodnight with a few fun photos of the day.

Lisa Spencer :)

Posted 10:40 PM 2/9/2016



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SNOWSTORM: No Shovel, No Problem!

Usually, the snow we get in Middle Tennessee is heavy & wet….and makes fantastic snowballs & snowmen, like this!


Isn’t that picture ridiculous!  That wasn’t in our area…EVER.  It was in Lawrence, Massachusetts in 2015, during their record setting winter when they received around 100″ of snow (photo source:  Lawrence Eagle Tribune).  That snowman’s 25 feet tall!

Anyway…you get my drift.  Usually, our snow isn’t like today’s.  Today’s was super light & fluffy!  I took these pictures in our parking lot here at Channel 4 (in West Nashville) just moments ago.


The truth about snow is that it’s loaded with air!  It’s actually MOSTLY air.  That means, it’s made up of VERY LITTLE water.  To prove that to you, I got a glass full of snow and then took it inside to see just how much water was left behind when it melted.  Here’s my snow sample…


Then, no more than 20 seconds later (after I walked into the building) this is how it looked.  Look at how fast it started to melt!


Ten minutes later, this is where we are now.  Look at how little water made up all that snow!


When snow is heavy & wet, it’s easy to pack into snowballs.  It’s also much heavier to shovel.  With today’s snow, since it’s so light & fluffy, if you got a few inches and you want it out of your way, but don’t have a shovel…no problem!  A broom or even a leaf blower will do the job just the same!


Now, with tonight’s refreeze, roads (especially secondary ones), bridges, and overpasses are super slick!


Please be extra careful if you have to drive anywhere!!  Tomorrow morning, the Channel 4 News Today team will highlight where road conditions are the worst and have any last minute school cancellations….so we hope you tune in then.


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February 9: More Snow, More Cold, Daily Links


Looking back at yesterday’s likely/boom/bust forecast, we obviously ended up with closer to the “boom” amounts of snow over the last 24 hours…even exceeding my wildest expectations around Clarksville.  More light snow showers will move northwest-to-southeast throughout today and tonight, although the focus for accumulating snow will shift to the typical “high terrain” spots by this evening and tonight.  Futurecast shows the off-and-on snow showers today and tonight:
What you’ll see out the window will vary literally from minute-to-minute — occasional bursts of light snow that add up a quarter-inch at a time, but most of the time you’ll see just flurries or nothing at all.  Total accumulations will vary by neighborhood, but once all is said and done this is what you’ll have on the ground by Wednesday morning:
NWS-Nashville posted this “additional accumulation” graphic, which (when added to what we’ve already seen) corresponds pretty closely with the “total accumulation” image I posted above:
The Winter Weather Advisory continues in and around Nashville until 6pm today, and it continues until 6am Wednesday for the higher-terrain counties in the eastern half of the Midstate:

We’ll see partial clearing by midday Wednesday, but then another brief shot of snow will slide down from the northwest Wednesday evening and Wednesday night:
Additional accumulations of 0.5″ to 1″ appear to be the most-likely scenario at this point, but as always, stay tuned for updates.

We’ll get into a calmer (but still cold!) weather pattern Thursday through Saturday, before another chance of rain and/or snow heads our way late Sunday and into Monday:
7 Day PM
It’s waaaaaaaaaay too soon to get into details about that one, but put it in the back of your mind that Monday morning could bring some travel headaches.

Mercifully, the Climate Prediction Center’s 8-14 day outlook shows a decent chance that the warm air over the western half of the country will spread our way…we’ll just have to wait for it to get here!  (The numbers on the map are probabilities, not temperatures.)



This snow isn’t substantial enough to preempt the nerd-links…

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Winter Weather Update…


It’s becoming a winter wonderland for many.  The snow continues to fall. Some areas of north of I-40 have already received 1″-2″ of snow.

LS snowfall reports

Monterey in Putnam County has 3″ already.  They usually win the top prize for the most snow because of the elevation.  2.5″ has fallen in Montgomery County.

City Value Table.png

We can expect on and off snow through early on Wednesday. The reason…there is a huge area of low pressure north of us.  We are getting the snow coming around the back side of that low as it slowly moves northeast.


Here are the totals we are expecting at this time.  Paul will update them in the morning.DTDTDT

Thanks to our viewers for the great photos.  You can send yours to, tweet them to WSMVLisaSpencer or post them on my facebook page.

Please stay off the roads if you don’t have to get out.  There are slick areas.  If you must drive…sllooowww down.  I want you back watching tomorrow.

:) Lisa Spencer

posted 10:30 PM Feb. 8, 2016




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UPDATE on Tonight’s Winter Storm!

Some snow events in Middle Tennessee are quick…lasting just a few hours.  This one will be the opposite — spanning THREE days!

What’s fallen already and the snow that’s still to come through Wednesday morning is being produced by a gigantic storm (area of low pressure) over the Great Lakes & Mid Atlantic.


Since we’re on the southwest side of it, it won’t bring us steady snow….but instead periodic snow showers.  SO….it may snow for an hour and then turn off for two.  That cycle will repeat through tomorrow, in all likelihood with the areas of snow gradually becoming lighter and fewer/farther between.  By Wednesday morning, there should be just a few lingering snow flurries.

We had one decent batch of snow move in from the northwest late this afternoon.  It dumped a quick 2″ of snow in Pleasant View  (northern Cheatham County) & White House (Sumner/Robertson County line).  Outlaw Field in Clarksville (the airport there) got 2.5″!  Right now, the remnants of that batch of snow are in Wilson & Cannon counties.  It’s evident from the areas of brightest white on 4WARN Live Doppler, below…


Check out the NEXT batch of decent snow beginning to move in.  It’s over southwest KY….from the Tennessee/Kentucky line on I-24 all the way to Paducah.  That cluster of snow showers will drop additional accumulating snow this evening in our area.


In the meantime, temperatures are dropping.  We’re already below freezing in Nashville and areas farther north are in the upper 20s.  Check out the map below.  Areas north of the pink line show where it’s already below freezing.


Temperatures will continue to drop into the low-mid 20s by dawn tomorrow.  SO….road problems will spread farther south.  Because of that, a couple dozen counties in our area are under a Winter Weather Advisory until 6am on Wednesday…


Based on the latest radar data and recent snowfall measurements (noted above), I’ve upped our snowfall prediction for the I-65 corridor along the TN/KY line.  Take a look…


With the road conditions we have…and the expectation they’ll worsen overnight, Lisa Spencer will share the latest school closures tonight, on Channel 4 News at 10pm.

Tomorrow, our morning team will also pass along the latest road conditions along your route of travel, starting at 4am on Channel 4 News Today, so be sure to tune in.




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