Wet Weekend

No doubt about it, a wet weekend is ahead.  Rain will fall on and off through the weekend.  The tell-tell clouds arrived early today.  A sign, rain is on the way.  At noon, rain had already started falling in West Tennessee.  I received a report from a very trust worthy source in Jackson, my mother. Rain continues to move through Middle Tennessee this evening.  A warm front will spread more needed moisture northward.  The main area of low pressure will  continue to move northeast out of the southern plains. Here’s what the latest Futurecast images show. This is showing a little too much left a 9pm.

Much to the dismay of many runners, Saturday morning there is still the possibility of more rain. Some of the latest model runs are showing dry times in the morning.  Let’s just hope for lighter showers, with no lightning.  Showers and thunderstorms will be more spotty in the afternoon and through Sunday.

The Storm Prediction Center has put areas to the west in a “marginal” and “slight” risk zone for Saturday.

LISA  SEVERE RISK REGION

A cool front does move through on Sunday providing the mid-state with the greatest chance for strong to severe thunderstorms.  The greatest threat will be damaging wind, over 60 mph and hail, 1″ in diameter and larger. Most of the mid-state has been put in a “marginal” risk area for Sunday by the Storm Prediction Center.

LISA  SEVERE RISK REGION 1

Weak disturbances will move through next week producing some areas of rain and thunderstorms each of the first few days for the week.  Highs will be in the 70s instead of 80s.

On another note, Tomorrow is America’s PrepareAthon.  I encourage you this weekend to take a few minutes to identify the place in your home that is the safest place to be during a tornado warning. Here are the things to look for…

  1. Basement or storm shelter if you have it
  2. Lowest level of the home or building
  3. Center of the home or building (interior bathrooms or closets are best)
  4. Put as many walls between you and the outside as possible.

When you find that spot, take a selfie there and tweet it and include me @WSMVLisaSpencer  or post it on my facebook (Lisa Spencer) with the #safeplaceselfie. LS selfplaceselfie

I’ll have an update on Channel 4 News at 10pm.

Have a great weekend!

Lisa Spencer

posted 7pm

 

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Weekend Weather Update!

Clouds have taken over the area.  Showers and thunderstorms will gradually move in from the west this afternoon & evening.  Here’s a look at the rain’s current positioning…

VIDEO RADAR

It’s likely some of this rain reaches the I-65 corridor between 5pm and 7pm tonight, so if you have evening plans in Nashville, Franklin, Columbia, etc. you may have to contend with wet weather as you head out.  FUTURECAST looks good in its handling of this…

Notice how busy the I-40 corridor looks weatherwise, from Tennessee all the way westward into New Mexico!

VIDEO VIPIR

This train of unsettled weather will continue to send clusters of showers and storms our way over the weekend.  This is good if you’ve been patiently waiting on some beneficial rain for your lawn, new trees you planted, or garden.  It will be a problem though in spots and at times for outdoor weekend activities.

For the Rock ‘n’ Roll Marathon & 1/2 Marathon in Nashville tomorrow, be prepared for some showers…and just hope they’re light and refreshing, not heavy and annoying.  It’ll be mild and humid throughout.  Of course, the later you finish or head home, the warmer it will be.

DT222

I’ll show you FUTURECAST for the weekend, but take it with a grain of salt.  The little spokes of energy being ejected our way, triggering periods of rain and storms, are weak and difficult to resolve by the computer models.  SO….the models are having a tough time consistently zeroing in on exactly where and when rain will fall.  The takeaway from all that is to be prepared for rain and storms at anytime through the weekend, but also expect periods of dry weather and even a little bit of sunshine.  Highs on both Saturday & Sunday will be in the upper 70s, with lows in the lower 60s.

 

Be sure to tune in to Channel 4 News later today, starting at 4pm.  With a system like this one (it’s a little fickle), we want to make sure you stay up to date on our latest thoughts on the timing of these rain areas through the weekend.

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April 29: Unsettled Weekend, Daily Links

WEATHER

Well, we made it to Friday.  If you weren’t up in time to see daybreak this morning, you missed a beauty of a sunrise!
VIDEO TVI
Remember the old saying “red sky at morning, sailor take warning”?  There’s actually a nugget of truth to it!  The high clouds floating through the Midstate this morning are the leading edge of a storm system that will affect us through the weekend, with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms beginning tonight and lasting through early next week.

There are some hefty storms in Arkansas this morning that will head our way by this afternoon.  Before they get here, we’ll warm up to the low 80s again:
PAUL DAYPART GRAPH
Rain will become likely by mid-afternoon in West Tennessee, but watch what happens to the storms as they cross the Tennessee River:
BAMS FRI 3P BAMS FRI 6P BAMS 9P
According to this computer model, they fizzle out!  But a different computer model depicts a wetter scenario, allowing the rain to move across the Midstate throughout this evening:
RPM 3P FRI RPM 6P FRI RPM 9P FRI
So which one is right?  I tend to believe the first one, which dissolves the rain as it encounters the still-dry air over the Midstate.  Still, be prepared for at least the possibility of showers this evening if you’ll be out and about.

The differing scenarios from the forecast models is a continuing theme this weekend.  In fact, I have no confidence in their specific depictions of how the rain chances will evolve tonight through Sunday…so I’m not even posting those maps here.

When the computers are showing such differences, it’s time to fall back on some Meteorology 101 — why is the rain in the forecast in the first place, and when will the features that cause that rain move in?  The storm system out to our west will push a warm front (the dividing line between warm air to the south and cool air to the north) across the Midstate from southwest to northeast.  That means that a warm and unsettled air mass will settle into place across the region, before a cold front moves in from the west.  The best rain chances will develop along both fronts, with “spotty” (hit and miss) showers and storms still possible in between.

The warm front will move through tonight and early tomorrow morning, with the first good chance of widespread rain and a few storms.  The steadiest rain should lift off to the north early Saturday morning, but I’d be prepared for rain if you’re running in (or just watching) the marathon Saturday morning:
PAUL EVENT FORECAST
Spotty thunderstorms will still be possible throughout the day Saturday, and any storms that occur Saturday afternoon will have the greatest severe potential.  The Storm Prediction Center clearly isn’t impressed with our severe weather threat:
PAUL SEVERE RISK REGION
But the SPC’s short-range ensemble forecast model shows a better than 50-50 chance of “organized” (and thus, more likely to be strong/severe) storms Saturday afternoon:
SREF_prob_combined_supercell__f036
The second good chance of widespread rain will move in Saturday night and linger into at least the first half of Sunday — that’s the rain that will develop ahead of and along the cold front.  Adding all of that up, here’s what I think the “most likely” scenario is for the weekend:
PAUL STORM OUTLOOK
Keep in mind, this isn’t a very well-organized system, so my confidence in the specifics is low.  I have HIGH confidence that we’ll get rain this weekend, but there are just too many questions about the whens and wheres.  Best advice: plan for the worst, hope for the best.

More rain chances in the forecast early next week, but the long-range forecast is muddled enough that I’m not willing to go above 50% for our rain chances at this point.  Temperatures should be around (or even slightly below) normal for the first week of May:
WSMV 7 Day AM

 

LINKS

Nerd stuff.

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Looking Toward the Weekend

It was a beautiful summer like day with the afternoon high again rising to the 80s, 84 in Nashville to be exact. Yesterday’s storms brought some unwelcome wind damage, but some much needed rain. The amounts weren’t great, but we’ll take what we can get.

City Value Table

April is generally one of our wetter months.  But so far this year in Nashville, we’ve had under 1″ of rain, about two and half inches below average.  For the year BNA has picked up just under 12″ of rain, that is about three and half inches below average.

LISA SPECIAL RAINFALL

A ridge of high pressure is building back into mid state that has put an end to the rain for a brief time.  A system to the west will approach tomorrow.  Just enough low and mid level moisture will make a shower or thunderstorm possible in the late afternoon and evening tomorrow. One of out Futurecast models depicts a fairly large area of rain in southern Middle Tennessee Friday evening. I think this is a little overdone.

By Saturday morning a warm front lifts northward. This will increase the chances of rain and thunderstorms as the day goes on.  There is some disagreement in the models, some solutions are wetter than others for Saturday.  I think we may see periods of rain.  Right now the most likely scenario could give a window of dryness for the Rock and Roll Marathon (formerly Country Music Marathon).

Temperatures look to be in the low 60s at race time and it should be fairly humid.

DT222

There will likely be some scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon on Saturday.

The best chance of seeing strong thunderstorms with gusty winds will be Saturday night into Sunday early.  That is when the front is expected to move through. Afternoon highs will drop back to the mid to upper 70s. At this time Middle Tennessee is not in a risk zone for severe thunderstorms. This is still a few degrees above average. Drier weather is likely by Monday.

WSMV 4DAY FORECAST

Join me for a weather update on Channel 4 News at 10pm.

Lisa Spencer

posted 8:50 PM

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Allergy Problems? IMPROVE Your LIFE Once & For All!

Ten years ago this summer, I moved to Nashville.  During that first fall I was here, ragweed hit me like a freight train!!  The following spring, I think I went through eight boxes of tissues myself, thanks to all the pollen Middle Tennessee’s trees produce.

I suffered through the next couple years, before finally giving in and visiting an allergy doctor.  The shots & meds she gave me helped a lot, but last month I felt like I was back to square one all over again.  I told the nurse who gives me my shots, “It feels like I’m not doing anything for my allergies!  I’m miserable!!”  Some of you may even remember my voice was very weak on tv for a while, too.  I knew something had to change!

Then I remembered advice my allergy doctor had given me many times, that I had ignored.  It was….”Dan….You really need to start using a Neti Pot.”  Every time I heard that, I thought, “Yeah….that sounds fun!  Drown myself!  Voluntary waterboarding.  Sign me up!!!!”  Thinking about it made me sick to my stomach.

SO, at the beginning of April I decided to “man up” and give it a try.

Bottom line?  I’m now a Neti Pot PUSHER!

If you suffer from seasonal allergies, you need to drive to the store, buy one, and start using it TONIGHT!!  Within 3 minutes after doing it, you’ll breathe more clearly than ever.  Last month, I needed nasal sprays.  Thanks to the Neti Pot, I don’t need ’em now!  It’s almost like the pollen count has dropped from 10 to zero.  I don’t sneeze.  I don’t blow my nose.  I feel like a million bucks!

Why haven’t I ever tried this before?  It sounded awful.  To do something that sounds awful, I at least wanted someone to guide me through it.  SO…..that’s what I’m going to do here for you.

The whole process is really no big deal!  It just feels like you dove in a pool and got water up your nose.  You can handle that!!

Here’s a picture of mine.  You can find it at most drug stores for under $10.

DT

Inside the box, you’ll find this teapot looking thing and 30 packets of saline mix…

DT1

Instructions come with it, but essentially, all you need to do is 1/2 fill the teapot with room temperature distilled water. You can get a gallon of that at the grocery store for a dollar.  Pour in 1/2 the packet of saline mix and stir it up.  If you prefer, you can use boiled tap water instead (tap water must be boiled because there are bacteria in it).

The next part is easiest to see visually, so to spare you seeing ME do it, just watch this youtube clip:    How to Use a Neti Pot Demonstration

About a minute or so into the video, she’ll show you just how simple it is!  The key is to keep your mouth open and breathe through it, while you’re doing it.  It takes about 8 seconds for each side….and you’re done!  I do it before leaving the house in the morning and before going to bed — twice a day.  That schedule seems to work perfectly!

Alright…I just spent 45 minutes writing this blog, hoping many of you decide tonight to change your life once and for all….and do this!!  I waited 10 long years.  I wish I hadn’t!

Good luck….and for those who do it, spread the good word on to others.  Spring and fall will never be the same!

DT

 

 

 

 

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April 28: Calmer Weather, Daily Links

WEATHER

Last night’s thunderstorms resulted in numerous wind damage reports — all of the “W” icons indicate the locations of those damage reports, mostly tree damage.
VIDEO RADAR
The storms scooted out of here overnight, and we’ll just see a couple of isolated showers today, mostly in eastern Middle Tennessee.  Futurecast seems to have a good handle on that trend:
PAUL RPM 4KM

Temperatures will still be very warm today, about ten degrees above average:
THURSDAY HIGHS
And we’ll be very warm again tomorrow, reaching into the low to mid 80s:
FRIDAY HIGHS

Dry conditions will prevail during the daylight hours on Friday, but we’ll see increasing clouds Friday afternoon with a good rain chance heading in Friday night:
RPM 10P FRI RPM 1A SAT RPM 4A SAT
Severe weather doesn’t look likely with the Friday night storms.

The million-dollar question: what about the Country Music Marathon?  (Technically, the Nashville leg of the Rock ‘n’ Roll Marathon series, but you know what I mean.)  I don’t think it will be soggy, but there will probably be some showers hanging around off-and-on.  It all depends on how fast Friday night’s showers and storms move off to the northeast.  It’s still 48 hours away as I’m typing this, but Futurecast is showing some showers in the Nashville area at 7am, with drier conditions later in the morning:
RPM 7A SAT RPM 10A SAT RPM 1P SAT
Temperatures will be warm — the humidity will be noticeable but not dreadful:
PAUL EVENT FORECAST
Stay tuned for updates if you’ll be running…or just watching!

Off-and-on showers will be possible throughout the day Saturday, but the best chance of rain this weekend will head our way Saturday night and Sunday:
RPM 4P SAT RPM 7P SAT RPM 10P SAT RPM 1A SUN RPM 4A SUN
Once again, severe weather doesn’t look tremendously likely, but we’ll keep an eye on the storms just in case — thunderstorms in late April and early May can certainly be feisty.

 

LINKS

The nerd-links are back, after a one-day allergy-coma-induced hiatus:

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SEVERE Threat Update

Thunderstorms continue to move through Middle Tennessee, but they ARE weakening.  That’s obviously a favorable trend for tonight.  Here’s a look at 4WARN Live Doppler as of 5:45pm.

VIDEO VIPIR.png

The blue “W”s and green “H”s indicate where we’ve had wind damage and hail, respectively.

As we head into this evening and storms continue to slide eastward, they’ll gradually move into an environment that’s LESS favorable for damaging weather (shown below by the threat graphic).

DT_SEVERE RISK REGION

“Marginal Risk” means the threat for severe weather is not zero, but it’s quite small.

The strongest storms today have been in southern KY.  There were reports of tornadoes and/or funnel clouds in Hopkins & Muhlenberg counties, late this afternoon.  Southern Kentucky is the only part of our area under a watch.  It’s a Tornado Watch in effect until 11pm…

DT WATCH2

Even there though, the severe weather threat is beginning to diminish.

Looking west, notice over West Tennessee and Arkansas, the weather couldn’t be better…

VIDEO RADAR

That nice change will take over tomorrow and last into Friday.  Coming up at 6pm & 6:30pm on Channel 4 News, we’ll track the storms out there now…and talk about any severe weather threat this coming weekend.

DT

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