Too Much Rain?

For months now, we have been talking about how much of Middle Tennessee needs some rain.  Nashville is 4.61 inches below the annual average and Crossville is 3.65 inches below the yearly normal.  Meanwhile some places to the north have had a surplus, like Clarksville with 3.65 inches above the annual average.  Folks to the south continue to suffer with drought conditions.

DT DROUGHT UPDATE

For the next few days there is a really good chance of playing catch up in some spots, but there is also the chance of flash flooding. The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch  for Thursday for the possibility of getting too much rain.

WSMV WATCH 1

Some of the computer models are suggesting that some areas could pick up 2 to 4″ of rain, especially to the west.  An area of low pressure is lifting northward dragging a lot of gulf moisture with it. See the key below to translate the amounts for your area.

PAUL ECMWF RAIN

Tomorrow is the day we are likely to see the greatest chance of rain out of the next 7 days.

In addition to the rain, there is also a big benefit when it comes to heat. The highs will stay in the low 80s instead of upper 90s.  This is a nice break.  We’ve reached 90s this month each day except 4 day.

I’ll have an update tonight on Channel 4 News at 10pm.

Lisa Spencer

posted 9:35 PM

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Umbrella’s Out!

Heavy downpours and storms marched through Middle Tennessee early this morning, mainly impacting areas along the Tennessee-Kentucky borderline. Flash Flood Warnings were issued for numerous counties including Clay, Monroe, Cumberland and Clinton. Those warnings have officially expired but the potential for flooding is not over, especially in the day ahead. See the swath of moisture over Louisiana and Arkansas?

DT SATRAD3D Zooms

That is the area of low pressure shifting into Middle Tennessee in the day ahead. In fact, a Flash Flood Watch is in effect for all areas under the green color from 1 AM Thursday through 1 AM on Friday. 

DT WATCH2

Thursday will surely be the wet day of the week. Check out the latest on just how much rain we could receive through Sunday…wowza! The latest model suggests western Middle Tennessee could see over four inches. That is a lot in a very short amount of time.

PAUL ECMWF RAIN

On the bright side, this will help with our drought situation. If only we could shift the bulk of rain towards southern Middle Tennessee, where areas still fit under the severe to extreme drought.

DT DROUGHT UPDATE

On another bright side, cloud cover and showers will noticeably better conditions in the temperature department. Highs will touch the low to middle 80s. Check out Futurecast for heat indices (considering the high humidity so…the hottest it feel)…

PAUL iCast Heat Index

Not bad at all and well deserved!

For the latest on these watches and advisories, now would be the perfect time to download our ‘WSMV WX’ app, now would be the perfect time.

DT Smart Phone

Do not put the umbrella away just yet because check out your 7-day forecast. A decent chance for rain every day…

7 Day PM

If you have trouble falling asleep tonight or maybe work a third shift, you may want to take a peak outside the window. The International Space Station will make an appearance around 3:40 AM on Thursday. It will be visible 44 degrees from the earth’s surface, appearing northwest and disappearing southeast. Clouds will cover much of the sky but you may be lucky with enough of a break to catch a peak!

Join Meteorologist Dan Thomas on channel 4 at 6 PM for the full breakdown on the timing of the storms.

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July 27: Storms and Cooler Weather, Daily Links

WEATHER

We had some hefty storms overnight and early this morning, especially to the northeast of Nashville — the rain was heavy enough to prompt flash flood warnings for Clay, Monroe, Cumberland and Clinton counties.  The heaviest rain fell right along the TN/KY state line, between Tompkinsville and Celina…radar-estimated rainfall totals exceeded 4 inches there, with 2″+ amounts indicated in the yellow-shaded spots:
VIDEO RADAR

Localized flooding is the concern over the next several days — the important word is localized.  While widespread thunderstorms are in the forecast, only a few unlucky locations will actually add up enough rainfall for it to become a hazard.  We’ll get to the specifics in a moment, but first here’s the European forecast model’s estimate of how much rain will fall across the Midstate between now and Sunday:
PAUL ECMWF RAIN
If that rain is spread out evenly over that time frame, the ground should be able to absorb it without any problems — but we’re rarely that lucky.

The unsettled weather pattern really starts to kick in today…but before any storms develop, it’s going to be hot again.  Lunchtime temperatures will hover around 90 degrees, with the heat index likely climbing to the upper 90s:
WEDNESDAY HIGHS WEDNESDAY HEAT INDEX
But those lunchtime temperatures are also our forecast high temperatures for the day — as more storms bubble up in the afternoon, you’ll either get some shade from the distant storms, or you’ll feel some rain-cooled air if the rain pays you a visit.  With the usual disclaimer that forecast model data is better at showing the pattern, rather than the specifics, here’s the HRRR model’s version of how today’s storms will develop:
hrrr_2016072710_ref_nashville

The best chance of widespread and stronger thunderstorms will arrive tomorrow.  Already at sunrise we’ll be watching storms out to our west, which will then track across the Midstate throughout the day — the RPM model has a pretty good handle on what to expect:
RPM 6A THU RPM 9A THU RPM 12P THU RPM 3P THU RMP 6P THU
Our severe weather threat isn’t substantial — in fact, the Storm Prediction Center hasn’t even outlined a “Marginal Risk” for us — but the upper levels of the atmosphere look favorable enough to me that I wouldn’t be surprised if a few severe thunderstorm warnings are issued Thursday.

The cloud cover associated with our widespread storms on Thursday will keep a lid on our high temperatures — some relief from the worst of the heat!
THURSDAY HIGHS
Don’t get too excited though…the humidity will still be SUBSTANTIAL.
hqg-387

The widespread storms Thursday should wring enough moisture out of the atmosphere to drop Friday’s rain chances down to less than 50-50…but still far from zero!  The unsettled pattern will continue into the weekend, as the stalled out boundary overhead acts as the “train tracks” along which little atmospheric ripples will travel.
WSMV 7 Day AM

 

LINKS

Midweek nerdiness…

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Chance of Rain Increasing

Another hot and sticky day with afternoon thunderstorms lingering into the evening.  I feel like a broken record, I have said that so much lately, but it’s true. Today we reached 97 degrees.  Each day for the rest of the week does have a chance of some rain and a few thunderstorms.

WSMV Almanac.png

A stationary front is stretched across parts of the Midwest.  Down along the western Gulf of Mexico and into the Mississippi Valley there is a trough of low pressure.  That trough will continue to strengthen and push more moisture northward.  Tomorrow expect to see more rain and thunderstorms as a result.  Some of those thunderstorms could produce gusty winds and heavy downpours.

The chance of rain increases Thursday.  Some of the computer models are hinting at 2 to 2.5″ of rain.  This could trigger some flash flooding.  Friday the instability remains with still a chance of scattered thunderstorms. This  increased chance of rain will bring the afternoon highs down into the mid-80s for a couple of days.  A nice bit of relief, but it will still be muggy.

WSMV 4DAY FORECAST

Over the weekend, some disturbances in the atmosphere will slide into the mid state.  This again will keep a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.  Temperatures will begin to creep back to near 90 degrees.

Hopefully this on and off chance of rain and thunderstorms will help with the drought situation. By the time we get to Saturday, some areas could see 2.5-4″. Nashville is still 4.53″ below the average annual rainfall.

DT RPM 12KM Rainfall Zooms

I’ll have an update on Channel 4 News at 10pm.

Lisa Spencer

 

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7th Hottest Start to Summer!

If you’ve thought this summer has been unusually hot, it’s not your imagination.  It’s been the 7th hottest June and July so far in recorded history, which spans about 140 years!

DT HEAT STATS5

The hottest summer ever here in Nashville was in 1952.  The average temperature that year to this point was three degrees higher….at 83.7!

A couple more stats for you:  so far this year, the average high temperature in Nashville is 91.7.  In 1952, to this point, it was a whopping 95.7!

It’s not just this summer that’s been remarkable.  Today was as well — we tied for the 2nd hottest day of the year!  What’s also worth pointing out is that our high for the day was set before noontime (at 11:46am).

DT FLIP FLOP TEMPERATURES2

It’s still plenty hot outdoors tonight.  Some of us continue to report temperatures above 90 degrees…as of 7pm!

DT DMA TEMPS STILL1

Tomorrow, above average heat will still be in place, but it won’t be as brutally hot as it’s been lately.  The forecast at the bottom of the grouping below is for Nashville.  The others are labeled appropriately.

Rain is most likely over our western counties tomorrow.  It’s least likely over southeastern Middle Tennessee.

On Thursday, more widespread rain and thunderstorms are likely.  That’ll give us a much needed break from the recent stifling heat!  Some of the rain will fall during the morning.  SO…temperatures will be held down in the middle 80s.  Take a look at how much rain is likely from repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms through Saturday…

DT RPM 12KM Rainfall Zooms

Coming up tonight on Channel 4 News at 10pm, Lisa Spencer will pinpoint when rain is most likely for you on Thursday, right through this coming weekend.

DT

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July 26: Hot Today, Relief Ahead, Daily Links

WEATHER

Yet another hot and muggy day in store for us today, with highs reaching the low to mid 90s this afternoon, and the heat index hovering around 100 degrees:
PAUL DAYPART GRAPH
Those are the “before and in between the storms” temperatures.  We’re likely to stay dry this morning, with a few showers popping up by midday — the best chance of storms will develop this afternoon, as Futurecast shows (the RPM model here):
RPM 1P TUE RPM 3P TUE RPM 5P TUE RPM 7P TUE
The HRRR model is in rough agreement:
hrrr_2016072611_ref_nashville

Tomorrow’s weather will be similar, but not identical…I think the showers will start popping up just a little bit earlier, which means temperatures will be just a couple of degrees lower:
WEDNESDAY HIGHS
You have slightly better odds of seeing a storm in your neighborhood Wednesday afternoon, and the storm chances should linger even past sunset:
RPM 12P WED RPM 3P WED RPM 6P WED RPM 9P WED

The best chance of widespread and stronger storms will arrive on Thursday.  I don’t really trust the model-generated radar simulations that far in advance, but this sequence at least gives you a sense of the overall pattern:
RPM 8A THU RPM 12P THU RPM 4P THU RPM 8P THU
The upper levels of the atmosphere will be more favorably set up for “organized” storms on Thursday — it’s far from a significant severe weather threat, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few severe storms with a damaging wind threat:
PAUL SEVERE WEEKLY
The higher rain chance equates to some long-awaited relief from the heat — highs on Thursday and Friday will only be in the 80s…but the humidity will still be substantial!

The unsettled weather pattern will continue through the weekend and into early next week — the gradual decrease in rain chances reflects the usual long-range uncertainty, rather than any large-scale shift in the overall pattern:
WSMV 7 Day AM

 

LINKS

Your Tuesday morning nerdiness…lots of weather-related stuff today.

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Some Heat Relief Coming

The hot and sticky pattern continues for a couple of more days. It reached 95 today in Nashville.  Some relief is coming late in the week with lower temperatures and rain. It’s typical for this summertime pattern to produce spotty thunderstorms.  That will be the case this week. The strong ridge of high pressure will start to weaken.

A surface front will move in meeting up with the warm juicy air-mass from the Gulf and that will elevate our chance of storms mid-week.  Some of those storms could be strong with gusty winds, but the main threat looks to be flash flooding especially Thursday and Friday.

So temperatures will be in the mid-90s Tuesday and Wednesday, but by Thursday and Friday the increase in rain chances will bring them down to the mid 80s.  That’s is the relief I’m talking about.

WSMV 4DAY FORECAST

There are a few clouds out tonight, but for some folks it will be clear enough to see the  International Space Station. The ISS will pass by  at 9:20pm.  It will take 6 minutes for it to pass.  The maximum height will be 47 degrees.  It will appear in the SSW sky at 11 degrees and arc then disappear in the ENE sky at 10 degrees.  You will be looking for a moving star-like object.  You can see it without any magnification.

International_Space_Station

I plan to look for it on a facebook live at 9:20pm.  You can join me then. And of course I will have a weather update tonight on Channel 4 News at 10pm.

Lisa Spencer

posted 9pm

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