Front Brings Change…4 ’til Eclipse

Thunderstorms have been slow to fire up today, but they are developing now out ahead of the front. It has been a hot and steamy day with the afternoon high reaching 91° at Nashville International Airport.

A summer front is approaching from the west, the rain and thunderstorms will move from west to east across Middle Tennessee.  This isn’t a widespread severe weather event, but there may be a strong storm or two.  Here’s the latest Futurecast depiction.

The Storm Prediction Center did put the northwest corner of Middle Tennessee and southern Kentucky in a “marginal” risk zone for severe thunderstorms.  I think the greatest threat would be gusty winds. But I do look for the storms to weaken as they move east of I-65.

LISA SEVERE RISK REGION

There will be some lingering showers in the morning, mainly along the Cumberland Plateau. Some patchy fog may develop where it rains.

The front will leave behind a drier pattern, but it will still be hot.  Should be great weather for the pool or lake and for the Wilson County Fair which opens tomorrow.

LS 2013_STATE_FAIR.png

Saturday and Sunday, afternoon highs will be in the low 90s. I can’t totally rule out a stray shower, especially on Sunday.

WSMV 4DAY FORECAST

Forecast for the eclipse is not perfect, there may be a few clouds that will pass through during the viewing time.  There is also the possibility of isolated showers and thunderstorms. those will likely develop later in the afternoon.  I certainly hope that is the case.  I would give the forecast for eclipse viewing a 7 on a 1-10 scale.

DT SEVERE STORM THREAT

I’ll have an update on News 4 at 10pm.

Lisa Spencer

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Deceiving Start to our Thursday!

A delightful start to our morning! Plenty of blue sky, rain-free and warm in the low to upper 70s.

VIDEO TVI

Enjoy it! See the band of showers out towards our west over Arkansas? That is headed our way late this afternoon into the evening…VIDEO VIPIR

Check out the timing…DAPHNE NEW RPM 4KM WxType StationaryDAPHNE NEW RPM 4KM WxType Stationary1DAPHNE NEW RPM 4KM WxType Stationary2DAPHNE NEW RPM 4KM WxType Stationary3DAPHNE NEW RPM 4KM WxType Stationary4DAPHNE NEW RPM 4KM WxType Stationary5

As the rain and storms push near, you’ll notice an increase in cloud cover ahead. Leading to a 5 our of 10 on our sunshine outlook. No worries, though. Plenty of blue sky makes up as soon as Friday, lasting all weekend!DaphneSunshineBetter

Speaking of blue sky, our anticipated Total Solar Eclipse forecast is shaping up to be a winner. I’m keeping my 7/10 visibility forecast right where I left it yesterday…and the day before. So far so good with a mix of sun and clouds and just an isolated storm chance during the afternoon. DT SEVERE STORM THREAT

Overall picture — expect heat, humidity and storms today with improvements as soon as tomorrow!WSMV 7 Day AM

Stay tuned for an up-to-date storm timeline coming up on News 4 at noon today!

-Meteorologist Daphne DeLoren

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August 16: Relief From The Humidity, Daily Links

WEATHER

The word of the day: HUMID.  It felt generally gross outside, with dew points running in the low to mid 70s throughout the day…that’s “bad” territory on the Muggy Meter:

Abundant humidity will remain in place through Thursday night, but at least a little bit of relief is in store for the weekend.

We’ve seen some showers and storms popping up in the heat and humidity, but those will fizzle out after sunset — still, an isolated sprinkle or two is still possible overnight into early Thursday morning.  The HRRR model’s radar simulation shows that trend:

Temperatures tonight will only drop to the mid 70s:

High temperatures Thursday will reach the upper 80s and low 90s…

…with the heat index close to 100° again:

A better chance of scattered storms will move in Thursday afternoon and evening.  I’m not thrilled with any one forecast model’s depiction of those storms, but I think the BAMS model here has a decent handle on things:

A few of the storms could be stronger, especially to the northwest of Nashville — that’s where the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a “Marginal Risk” of severe weather:

That’s level 1 out of 5, so don’t panic — we’ll keep an eye on any storms that develop, just in case they get a little frisky.  There could be some storms in the area for the start of Live On The Green…and it will still be warm and sticky:

Don’t let that stop you from joining the fun at Public Square Park — just check in with Lisa Spencer on our evening newscasts tomorrow (or download the 4WARN app and check the radar) before you head out.

That system will usher in a slightly drier air mass for the weekend, but it will still be hot — highs will top out around or above 90° Friday, Saturday and Sunday, with just an isolated storm chance each day:

The heat will stick around early next week, with highs remaining in the low 90s.

Looking ahead to Eclipse Day on Monday, things are still looking…adequate.  The American GFS model is showing a decent amount of cloud cover during totality:

The more-reliable European model is a little more optimistic:

Those are the only two major forecast models in range of Monday at this point — we’ll have a lot more data to look at over the weekend.  Some spotty showers and storms are still possible as well…not a washout, but still at least a slight chance of rain:

Fingers crossed for good visibility!  I’ll have an update on News 4 at 10pm…

 

LINKS

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Unsettled Until Friday

Unsettled weather has been with us for a while now.  It looks like we’ll see a change in this pattern on Friday, continuing into the weekend.

Outdoors as of 7;10am, showers and thunderstorms were traveling eastward along the I-40 corridor, causing ponding and big puddles for the morning commute.  Here are a couple of views of 4WARN Live Doppler Radar.

VIDEO RADAR SPONSOR3

Look at what the rain has done to visibility downtown…

DT VIDEO TVI

Temperatures are in the 70s and it’s tremendously humid.

DT DMA TEMPS STILL1

Through today, we’ll have broken clouds with building heat and humidity.  Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop especially this afternoon, briefly cooling those areas where they pass.  FUTURECAST shows some popping up here and there…

Highs this afternoon will be around 90.  Of course, with the very high humidity, it’ll feel even hotter.

DT CITYCAST 3D1_EffectRandomDots_16x9

This evening, showers and storms will become more sparse, so weather for the South Central Area Fair looks good!  Weather for the Cheatham County Fair looks similar.  Both fairs continue through Saturday.

WSMV EVENT 2D

Our chance for rain will actually increase late tomorrow and tomorrow night as a cold front moves into and through Middle Tennessee.  Then, the likelihood for rain will decrease as we head into Friday and carry into the weekend.  That means the sky will brighten and sunshine will become more prominent.

DT CYLINDERS SUN

As for the Total Solar Eclipse…our weather still looks fair.  Conditions don’t appear perfect.  They don’t look bad either.  We’ll likely have scattered-broken coverage of fair weather/puffy clouds that afternoon.  Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected.

DT SEVERE STORM THREAT

Join me on News 4 at noon today.  I’ll track any developing showers and thunderstorms and show you where they’re headed.  We’ll also have an update on weather for this weekend into Monday, Eclipse Day!

Until then, have a good one!

DT

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August 15: More Of The Same, Daily Links

WEATHER

Not much change to the weather over the next 48 hours — scattered storms will develop each day, with hazy, hot and humid conditions in between.  The showers we saw today have largely fizzled, but a few more could develop overnight, as shown by the HRRR model’s radar simulation:

Temperatures will only drop to the low to mid 70s by Wednesday morning:

More scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop during the day Wednesday:

Temperatures will be slightly warmer in between the showers and thunderstorms, with highs around 90°:

The same pattern will repeat itself on Thursday, although I think Thursday’s storm chances will be fractionally higher.

The forecast still looks mostly dry Friday, Saturday and Sunday, as the main storm track will be pushed just a little ways down to our south:

High temperatures will still top out around 90° but with slightly lower humidity over the weekend:

Looking ahead to Eclipse Day, I’ll start by stating the obvious — it’s still six days away!  Plenty of time for the forecast to change, either for the better (hopefully!) or the worse (please, no!).  Here’s the good news: the latest run of the American GFS model is showing minimal cloud cover at eclipse time, around 1pm on Monday:

Here’s the bad news: I trust the GFS model about as far as I can throw the supercomputer that runs it.  The more-reliable European model still shows a chance of spotty showers and storms on Monday, and I’ve shaded the forecast in that direction:

I’ll say it again — it’s still pretty far down the line at this point!  I’ll get some more data to look at between now and our 10pm newscast, so I’ll have an updated forecast then.

 

LINKS

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Talking Rain & Storms, plus Updated Eclipse Forecast

A blanket of clouds is what we wake up to early on this Tuesday morning. Besides a few passing showers across eastern Middle Tennessee, it’s been a dry start to the morning…

VIDEO TVI

The clouds aid in bringing warmer than average temperatures, in the low to mid 70s…

WSMV DMA TEMPS ZOOM1_EffectSquiggle Autoplot

Our 4WARN Live Doppler radar does not depict any weather in the way of our commute…score!VIDEO RADAR

Shower and storm chances are far from zero, though. A frontal boundary that bright heavy down pours and storms through Middle Tennessee, has finally lifted north but there’s still moisture left behind. Southern counties have the best chances for the rain (darker shades of green), while most of the remaining region (light green) we’ll see spotty to scattered storms.

WSMV RAIN Chance MAP

I expect most of the rain to taper off by the evening (keeping a 20% chance for lingering isolated showers). If you’re looking for fun festivities with the family, here’s a couple!

The Cheatham County Fair is one and the weather is looking decent. Warm and muggy with again, just that isolated passing shower. WSMV_Fair1

South Central Area Fair in Hohenwald is another hot spot this evening. Low 80s to start, mid 70s to wrap it up.WSMV EVENT 2D

Wednesday and Thursday look to be unsettled before a drier pattern settles in as soon as Friday, lasting through the entire weekend. Every day will be 1. muggy 2. seasonable in the upper 80 to lower 90s. Isolated afternoon showers are possible on Friday through early next week!

WSMV 7 Day AM

Speaking of early next week, the count down is ON! The Total Solar Eclipse is what we all have our eye on, only six days away. So far, the weather is looking FANTASTIC! I give it a seven out of ten. A 20% chance for isolated afternoon storms and a few slow moving clouds. As always, we’ll keep you posted and map out any updates as time gets closer.

DT SEVERE STORM THREAT

We hope you join us at noon for the full timeline of these upcoming showers and thunderstorms.

Let’s make it a great day!

-Meteorologist Daphne DeLoren

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August 14: More Showers and Storms, Daily Links

WEATHER

Scattered showers this evening will gradually wind down, but they won’t completely stop either — isolated showers will still be possible overnight.  The HRRR model’s radar simulation shows the diminishing rain coverage, but still a few showers early Tuesday:

Temperatures tonight will only fall to the low 70s by early Tuesday morning:

Scattered showers are in the forecast again on Tuesday, especially along and south of I-40:

I might be slightly over-estimating those odds, but I’m choosing to err on the side of caution — just keep the umbrella handy.  We should make it up to the mid to upper 80s for highs tomorrow, thanks to a few more breaks in the cloud cover:

The unsettled weather pattern will continue Wednesday and Thursday, with high temperatures around 90° and a decent chance of storms each day:

The forecast for Friday, Saturday and Sunday is looking mostly dry at this point, then we’ll see a slight chance of showers for Eclipse Day on Monday.  It’s still REALLY early for a specific eclipse-time forecast, but this is one of the most important forecasts we’ll ever do, so here’s an early look ahead:

“Cautious optimism” is my state of mind right now, mainly based on what the more-reliable European forecast model is showing.  We’ll keep you updated throughout the next 7 days, and of course we’re hoping to have good news to deliver!

 

LINKS

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